Cold Rain Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 My eyes might be playing tricks, but it looks to me like a secondary ULL is trying to form down in FLA in the vicinity of West Palm Beach, just judging by the kink in the WV loop. Wondering what influence that might have on the moisture transport. Or, maybe I'm completely wrong with what I'm seeing? Nah, we've just been duped by the models once again. Another widespread 2-3 inch, with locally higher amounts, 2 day heavy rain event that turns into 8 hours of light to moderate rain, followed by sprinkles. We will never learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 25, 2015 Author Share Posted September 25, 2015 I have slightly over a inch in my gauge, that includes yesterday but its dumping now and the main axis is just east of me if that does shift west then later tonight we could get 2-3" more at least here and my hunting club way downeast in Beaufort is getting hammered which sucks since its archery season and the mosquitos are gonna be out like crazy now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 12z GFS has a 29.0" bullseye in extreme NE NC over the next 138 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 My eyes might be playing tricks, but it looks to me like a secondary ULL is trying to form down in FLA in the vicinity of West Palm Beach, just judging by the kink in the WV loop. Wondering what influence that might have on the moisture transport. Or, maybe I'm completely wrong with what I'm seeing? Overall it is as unusual a setup as the NWS Raleigh report suggests. I would think that what you are describing is possible too. The Gulf and Florida-Atlantic areas are definitely potential areas for unusual development not able to be predicted due to this being such a rapidly changing retrograde low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Here is a 100 hr (adjustable via the number in the url) loop showing the evolution of this pattern. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wv_central+/100h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 #fail #winter_preview Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 I was away when this one came out shortly after noon... SUMMARY...A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS COASTAL NC /MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF COASTAL ONSLOW COUNTY/ NORTH THROUGH POINT LOOKOUT TO IN VICINITY OF HATTERAS. DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MHX RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A SUB-SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF POINT LOOKOUT NC WITH A MARINE BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEAST... PARALLEL TO THE OUTER BANKS. RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRESENT FROM COASTAL NC TO OFFSHORE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGHER THETAE AIR RESIDING OFFSHORE. RADAR VELOCITY DATA SHOWED STORMS OFFSHORE HAVING LOW-LEVEL ROTATION IN VICINITY AND SOUTH OF THE SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW...AND WITH SOME OF THE CELLS TRACKING WEST TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS. HOWEVER..THUS FAR... THESE ROTATION COUPLETS HAVE WEAKENED AFTER MOVING WEST OF THE COASTAL/MARINE BOUNDARY...WHERE THE NEAR-SURFACE AIR REMAINS MORE STABLE. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE WINDS SHOULD VEER SOME TODAY...WITH MORE OF AN EASTERLY TRAJECTORY...RESULTING IN THE COASTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE NC COAST. AS THIS OCCURS... ANY STORMS WITH ROTATIONAL COUPLETS IN THE HIGH THETAE AIR MASS COULD POSE A TORNADO THREAT. THE UNCONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO AND/OR STRONGER WIND GUST REMAINS LOW...GIVEN THE DEARTH OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 09/25/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Here is a 100 hr (adjustable via the number in the url) loop showing the evolution of this pattern. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wv_central+/100h That's interesting to watch if nothing else than to see that trough dig all the way down through the GOM into and beyond the Yucatan Peninsula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 US National Weather Service Raleigh NC 12 mins · Storm total rain totals through 2pm..Winston-Salem 1.31Henderson 1.08Raleigh-Durham 0.91Wadesboro 0.86Rockingham 0.76Rocky-Mount 0.62Fayetteville 0.38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 0.40" today, storm total 1.00" Is 27thish a word? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 US National Weather Service Raleigh NC 12 mins · Storm total rain totals through 2pm..Winston-Salem 1.31 Henderson 1.08 Raleigh-Durham 0.91 Wadesboro 0.86 Rockingham 0.76 Rocky-Mount 0.62 Fayetteville 0.38 Im at 1.21" so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 When do we call this a bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Not a bust here by any means. More than 2.5 inches for the entire event so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Only picked up 1.82 so far !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Im at 1.21" so far My cheapy rain gauge is over 1.5"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 NWS Charleston, SC @NWSCharlestonSC 2m2 minutes ago Confirmed: EF-2 tornado early this AM near Johns Island. Brief look into the processes that contributed: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Hi folks, Coming out of my summer hiatus. Had a question for the board. Is this kind of regional weather pattern with the LP possible in mid-winter assuming significantly colder air in place? Would be a decent snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Just broke 2.00".... 2.01" IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Picked up 1.75" today. Combine that with .13" from last night gives me 1.88" for the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Hi folks, Coming out of my summer hiatus. Had a question for the board. Is this kind of regional weather pattern with the LP possible in mid-winter assuming significantly colder air in place? Would be a decent snow event. I highly doubt it since we had winds coming in off the water from the east for the last 3 days and then a strong southeasterly flow which tends to bring in warm humid air. It is very possibly that snow would be the result in the mountains but not the piedmont and definitely not the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Had some good rain late afternoon and early evening. Up to .82" today, 1.42" event total - so far. Very light drizzle now. Actually had an outflow boundary pass through --- was evident on radar as well. Rain was falling in sheets when that came through around 5:30ish. That boundary is going through Dunn right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 Cold air damming doing it's trick... getting rain again!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 Finally much needed rain that covers almost all of SC with at least 1 inch, with many areas with much more. Still not a lot yet from the Charlotte metro to around Hickory though, but radar does show some rain up in that area now.We finally got the ground wet enough that standing water did not immediately soak in. My rain gauge hasn't been working, but I'd say we have received close to 1.5 here so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 2.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 Had a pretty long break but now it is raining heavily again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 Finally much needed rain that covers almost all of SC with at least 1 inch, with many areas with much more. Still not a lot yet from the Charlotte metro to around Hickory though, but radar does show some rain up in that area now.We finally got the ground wet enough that standing water did not immediately soak in. My rain gauge hasn't been working, but I'd say we have received close to 1.5 here so far. I've actually received 1.44 inches IMBY since the event began yesterday evening. This morning and early afternoon were pretty quiet, but the rain picked up in earnest again around 5 PM this evening. It's hardly showing up on radar, but we continue to get steady light rain here. I think I've got a good shot at over 2 inches by the time it's all said and done on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 I've actually received 1.44 inches IMBY since the event began yesterday evening. This morning and early afternoon were pretty quiet, but the rain picked up in earnest again around 5 PM this evening. It's hardly showing up on radar, but we continue to get steady light rain here. I think I've got a good shot at over 2 inches by the time it's all said and done on Sunday. 0.65" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 When do we call this a bust? This is anything but a bust, at least for my area. More patches of heavy rain hitting tonight. Thunderstorm to my Southeast currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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