NRVwxfan. Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 That storm must be tapping into the limited shear (~30kts) and around 1000 j/kg CAPE that's hugging the coastline and in the vicinity of Charleston. It should weaken as it pushes inland into a more stable environment. There was no mention of tornadoes being a threat. Hope you're right though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 I have a friend that literally lives in the path of the storm on facebook and just got this, "I felt the house shake, like a windy bridge! And stuff flying hitting the side of the house" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 I have a friend that literally lives in the path of the storm on facebook and just got this, "I felt the house shake, like a windy bridge! And stuff flying hitting the side of the house" Wow, Hope he's ok. This system is becoming more than just a heavy rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Honestly didn't expect this storm to be so potent and dynamic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Prob got over one inch of rain on the east side of Conyers at the house, will check cocorahs tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Impressed with the amount of rain so far around the CAE area. I really thought many around were going to miss that big blob the Euro had hinted at... but two days later it happened. There seems to be a good deal of debris and flood damage. Saw a video of a kid using a float to get around even! lol Just now looking into the CHS tornado, and what a horrible time for one to hit without prior warning to the threat. Goes to show everyone needs a weather alert system that is properly configured! Looks like CAE could get more through late night into early Saturday on some models. Looks like the major heavy stuff is most likely over with though. Around an inch more? Hopefully! Edit: looking at a local model... up to 2" more it's showing in CAE proper! That could possibly put 8+" totals in some places if it verifies from this event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Picked up right at an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Picked up right at an inch About the same here and now it seems to be over. Everything headed on to the north and east. Not looking for more than .10 or so of new precip through Sunday. Next week also looks much drier too according to the NWS forecast. Better than nothing of course, but the areas that really needed the rain are getting the least of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 About the same here and now it seems to be over. Everything headed on to the north and east. Not looking for more than .10 or so of new precip through Sunday. Next week also looks much drier too according to the NWS forecast. Better than nothing of course, but the areas that really needed the rain are getting the least of it.Yep, dry slot incoming! Just drizzle rest of the day!Edit: upon further review of the radar, I take back the drizzle only part! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Puddles! We have puddles! Love the rain so far overnight but this will quickly become too much of a good thing looking at the onshore flow heading to the piedmont. Frog choaker watches expected shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 0.60" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 rain... ~.80" SO FAR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 GA is getting their share... We are. Started raining in the early evening yesterday, and we have .85" already. I was hoping it would stop prior to football game tonight but it's looking like it will be a wet night in the stands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Not going to see anywhere near the totals printed by the models just minutes before the event started. Intensity is diminishing as the rain shield advances from the coast. Must be the moisture-robbing coastal front the NWS was referring to yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 0.43" Looks like we're done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Weatherbell (JB) just put out a video on Facebook - calling for another 6-10"!!!!!! for the 'Carolinas' trying to stretch North between now and Sunday! Also talks about the Gulf next week. https://www.facebook.com/weatherbellanalytics?fref=nf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Weatherbell (JB) just put out a video on Facebook - calling for another 6-10"!!!!!! for the 'Carolinas' trying to stretch North between now and Sunday! Also talks about the Gulf next week. https://www.facebook.com/weatherbellanalytics?fref=nf Why does he say the carolinas when it is a coastal North Carolina main event? Dumping buckets here in Downtown Greenville now. It seems tropical as wave comes in then dry and then another wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Maybe I'm missing something, but its progressed north and west pretty significantly over the past 24 hours. Seems like it will be up in Virginia and northward mostly by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Not going to see anywhere near the totals printed by the models just minutes before the event started. Intensity is diminishing as the rain shield advances from the coast. Must be the moisture-robbing coastal front the NWS was referring to yesterday. Seems that always happens here, whether it be rain or snow. I am not complaining about this one, though. I'd love for things to clear up so we can see the supermoon and eclipse Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 25, 2015 Author Share Posted September 25, 2015 This is far from over for central/eastern NC.....it really depends on several factors as t ohow much more rain they get inland in western NC and the upstate but I suspect it wont be that much more unless the models are way off on placement of the low.... ~AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC805 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015.SYNOPSIS...DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE PUMPING INTO THE REGION...BETWEEN STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH... AND OFFSHORELOW PRESSURE PUSHING INLAND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES... WILLPRODUCE WET AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHSATURDAY.&&.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT/...AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A WIDESPREAD SUBSTANTIALRAIN EVENT TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS 2-3 INCHESEXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTS A PLUME OF HIGHPRECIPITABLE WATER EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO NC. AWELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SW GEORGIA. THIS LOWSUPPORTED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE OVER COASTALGEORGIA.THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTH-NORTHWEST TODAY ANDTONIGHT AND BE POSITIONED OVER MIDDLE TN BY EARLY SATURDAY. THISWILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO PROGRESS INLAND...DRAGGING A 850MBWARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN NC. THIS WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE LOW LEVELISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INTO CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.FINALLY AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT MAY MOVE INLAND TO APOSITION NEAR OR JUST EAST OF I-95 LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEINLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER GEORGIA COUPLED WITH AHIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVELCONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO SATURDAY.THE DEEP LIFT THROUGH THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAYWILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH POCKETS OF ENHANCED RAINFALLINTENSITY PROBABLE. BASED ON THE EXPECTED POSITION OF THE 850MB WARMFRONT AND THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH...EXPECT THE AXIS OF HEAVIERPRECIP TO OCCUR CLOSE TO OR JUST NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR...ASWELL AS OVER SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. WHILEPROLONGED BURSTS OF HEAVY RAIN NOT ANTICIPATED...THE DURATION OF THEEVENT MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IN URBANIZED OR POORDRAINAGE AREAS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 raining at a good clip here right now. Gonna add up quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 How long before Crabtree Valley Mall is flooded? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 How long before Crabtree Valley Mall is flooded? Need heavier rates than what we're getting for it to flood... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 RAH .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1035 AM FRIDAY... SOUTH-TO-NORTH DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIP COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL PERSIST... ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF LIGHTER RAIN WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NOW EXTENDING ALONG THE SE BORDER OF SC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THIS EVENING... RESULTING IN A NORTHWARD SHIFT AND DECREASE IN THE STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE HELPING TO SUPPORT LAST NIGHT'S / THIS MORNING'S WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN. BUT THE STEADY INFLUX OF HIGH-PW (150-190% OF NORMAL) AIR AND ATYPICALLY HIGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT COMBINED WITH WEAK DPVA AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE... AS WELL AS MINOR AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY AUGMENTED BY LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION... WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT EVEN IN THE CURRENT RAIN-FREE SW CWA. WILL KEEP POPS CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST... WITH HIGH- END LIKELY POPS IN THE SW. THE HIGH WATER CONTENT WILL MAINTAIN A RISK FOR LOCALLY ENHANCED RAINFALL TOTALS... ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD HIGH RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE DECLINE... EXCEPT FOR THE FAR ERN CWA IN WHICH LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED. TEMPS SHOULD MOVE ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM THE LATEST READINGS... REACHING HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LOW 70S SOUTH (AND THIS LATTER END OF THE RANGE MAY EVEN BE A TAD TOO WARM). -GIH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Have you ever just looked out your window on a day like today and realized a mistake you have made and the misery that will come from it later? See I looked out my window and saw our big trashcan on the back patio full of trash bags......so many in fact that the lid blew off in the wind and now the trashcan is gonna being filled with nasty trash water. I just tried to remedy the problem I just gotta hope the wind doesn't pick up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 MHX .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...AS OF 1025 AM...SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AND BE HEAVY AT TIMES INTOTHE AFTERNOON AS SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE/COLDER CLOUD TOPS JUST OFFTHE SE NC COAST MOVES INLAND. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO2 INCHES WILL BE COMMON WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY.MONITORING FOR A POTENTIAL FLOOD WATCH BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOWAS SOME BREAKS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS WILL ALLOW RUNOFF TOOCCUR, BUT PONDING OF WATER WILL CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN SOMEAREAS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70SALONG THE COAST/OUTER BANKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Have you ever just looked out your window on a day like today and realized a mistake you have made and the misery that will come from it later? See I looked out my window and saw our big trashcan on the back patio full of trash bags......so many in fact that the lid blew off in the wind and now the trashcan is gonna being filled with nasty trash water. I just tried to remedy the problem I just gotta hope the wind doesn't pick up again. Drill a drainhole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Drill a drainhole Took one of the super sized trash bags we have and put it over the top upside down to cover it....that should do the trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 My eyes might be playing tricks, but it looks to me like a secondary ULL is trying to form down in FLA in the vicinity of West Palm Beach, just judging by the kink in the WV loop. Wondering what influence that might have on the moisture transport. Or, maybe I'm completely wrong with what I'm seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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