downeastnc Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Figure this might help keep the other threads less cluttered and give us a place to find obs and make it easy to find search wise down the road should anyone be so inclined. Winds here in the east picking up was just out at lunch and it was easily gusting into the upper 20's or even low 30's with steady winds in the mid teens I would guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Its started in earnest here. Also cool with a temp of 59 with a light breeze. My weatherbug app is showing some lightning about 11 east of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 24, 2015 Author Share Posted September 24, 2015 We had maybe .30" right around dawn but since then we have seen the sun pop out a few times, although the last hr or so the deck seems to have thickened and lowered quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 We had maybe .30" right around dawn but since then we have seen the sun pop out a few times, although the last hr or so the deck seems to have thickened and lowered quite a bit. Wow. The lake behind the house has risen considerably due to the rain. Its been real low because of the drought. This is just what we have needed here for months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Currently partly sunny with A dry ne wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Currently partly sunny with A dry ne wind. Get used to it. Enjoy your sprinkles tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 12 GFS shows a "sweet spot" near RDU northwards; but these "sweet spots" have moved all over the place with each model run. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=096ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_096_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150924+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Uk says 3-4" over bulk of NC with over 5" towards the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 hi-res GFS....gets the dry slot really close to ColdRain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Get used to it. Enjoy your sprinkles tomorrow! Blue Sky!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 24, 2015 Author Share Posted September 24, 2015 Blue Sky!!!! 12039209_10207664786234924_2263449471303380220_n.jpg We had that earlier might be the last you see of it for 3-5 days........the timing does appear to be a little slower than modeled though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDFLASH FLOOD WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC114 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2015THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...CENTRAL RICHLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...* UNTIL 245 PM EDT* AT 110 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THEWARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY. RADARESTIMATES 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN DURING THE PASTHOUR...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY AS HEAVY RAIN TRAINS OVER THEAREA. THE FIVE POINTS AREA OF COLUMBIA IS ESPECIALLY PRONE TOFLOODING.* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...COLUMBIA...WEST COLUMBIA...FOREST ACRES...ST. ANDREWS...DENTSVILLE...WOODFIELDS...ARCADIA LAKES...FIVE POINTS...WOODFIELD...FORT JACKSON AND SEVEN OAKS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOODDEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.REPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTYSHERIFF...ALSO USE WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCOLUMBIA AND EMAIL[email protected] TO RELAY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 We had that earlier might be the last you see of it for 3-5 days...... hi-res GFS....gets the dry slot really close to ColdRain The max of 7.96" is exactly right over my house... There goes any chance of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 hi-res GFS....gets the dry slot really close to ColdRain Already seen that much or more here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 hi-res GFS....gets the dry slot really close to ColdRain Lol that's the gold standard...that and the 850 line just to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Lol that's the gold standard...that and the 850 line just to the NW. Don't worry, the Euro is a shellacking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 I know the title of this thread says Sept 24-27 but won't the heaviest rain be next week from a low in the northern gulf ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Already up to 2.5 inches of rain as of 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 occasional drizzle drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Not sure CAE is going to make it, hope someone is building an ark... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Not sure CAE is going to make it, hope someone is building an ark... Thats gonna be rough considering what has already fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0514NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD305 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SC & SOUTHEASTERNMOST NC CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. Long discussion.... http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=514&yr=2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 I know the title of this thread says Sept 24-27 but won't the heaviest rain be next week from a low in the northern gulf ? Different event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Sprinkles here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Iffy for central NC??? AT THE SURFACE... LOW PRESSURE SPINNING JUST OFF THE SAVANNAH GA COAST IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ITS WNW-WARD DRIFT INTO GA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING FRI... ALTHOUGH ANOTHER LOW MAY DEVELOP FRI IN THIS SAME LOCATION ALONG A PERSISTENT COASTAL FRONT... THE PRESENCE OF WHICH IS LEADING TO SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT WE'LL SEE A STRONG INFLUX OF ABOVE NORMAL PW VALUES AND DECENT UPPER DIVERGENCE TO SUPPORT RAIN GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE... IF THE COASTAL FRONT DOES NOT PUSH MUCH INLAND OR DISSIPATES AS IT DOES SO ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY NEW COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPMENT... THEN THIS MAY SERVE TO ROB SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP. THIS MAY TRANSLATE TO TWO RELATIVE MAXIMA IN RAINFALL... ONE MAXIMUM NEAR THE FRONT OVER COASTAL NC... AND ANOTHER TERRAIN- AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE-ENHANCED MAXIMUM OVER THE FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS INTO THE FAR NW PIEDMONT. THAT SAID... HAVE FOCUSED THE HIGHER PW TO OUR NW AND IN THE FAR ERN CWA... WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRI APPROACHING AN INCH AND A HALF... WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS JUST OVER AN INCH THROUGH THE CENTRAL CWA. WHILE THIS IS VERY UNLIKELY TO FALL HARD ENOUGH OR QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES... IT MAY STILL GENERATE SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS... LIKELY MAKING FOR A MESSY COMMUTE FRI MORNING. TOUGH CALL ON TEMPS AS THE MORNING SUNSHINE ALLOWED FOR A NICE WARMUP AND LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS (INTO THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S) OVER MUCH OF THE NRN/WRN CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Hmmm, I wonder where the Blue Ridge Escarpment is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Iffy for central NC??? AT THE SURFACE... LOW PRESSURE SPINNING JUST OFF THE SAVANNAH GA COAST IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ITS WNW-WARD DRIFT INTO GA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING FRI... ALTHOUGH ANOTHER LOW MAY DEVELOP FRI IN THIS SAME LOCATION ALONG A PERSISTENT COASTAL FRONT... THE PRESENCE OF WHICH IS LEADING TO SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT WE'LL SEE A STRONG INFLUX OF ABOVE NORMAL PW VALUES AND DECENT UPPER DIVERGENCE TO SUPPORT RAIN GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE... IF THE COASTAL FRONT DOES NOT PUSH MUCH INLAND OR DISSIPATES AS IT DOES SO ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY NEW COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPMENT... THEN THIS MAY SERVE TO ROB SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP. THIS MAY TRANSLATE TO TWO RELATIVE MAXIMA IN RAINFALL... ONE MAXIMUM NEAR THE FRONT OVER COASTAL NC... AND ANOTHER TERRAIN- AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE-ENHANCED MAXIMUM OVER THE FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS INTO THE FAR NW PIEDMONT. THAT SAID... HAVE FOCUSED THE HIGHER PW TO OUR NW AND IN THE FAR ERN CWA... WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRI APPROACHING AN INCH AND A HALF... WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS JUST OVER AN INCH THROUGH THE CENTRAL CWA. WHILE THIS IS VERY UNLIKELY TO FALL HARD ENOUGH OR QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES... IT MAY STILL GENERATE SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS... LIKELY MAKING FOR A MESSY COMMUTE FRI MORNING. TOUGH CALL ON TEMPS AS THE MORNING SUNSHINE ALLOWED FOR A NICE WARMUP AND LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS (INTO THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S) OVER MUCH OF THE NRN/WRN CWA. That's just for Friday, Sat won't be pretty. Maybe 1-1.5" tomorrow and another 1-2" on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Hmmm, I wonder where the Blue Ridge Escarpment is... We usually do really well in these types of events. I remember May of 2013 provided an environment where it rained non stop for the better part of a week. Better start building that ark! Now if only we could cash in like that in the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 LOL the 18z NAM destroys the Triangle. You know it's going to be right. Somebody post a map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase2211 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 LOL the 18z NAM destroys the Triangle. You know it's going to be right. Somebody post a map! I just looked... LolSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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