KA Winter Outlook 2015-16. Mine also. Others please post here

[WEATHER53]

All three months +1 to +3 in temps.

DCA snowfall:14"

Liquid equiv:Above average

 

Analog years  58-59,70-71,05-06

 

My 2015-16 Winter Outlook

Dec:-0.5

Jan:+1

Feb:+1

Overall:+0.5

DCA snowfall:5-10"

Suburbs:12-20"

Liq.equiv:Above average

 

Analog years:52-53,53-54,72-73

 

We discussed our narrative and they are the same. Moderate+ el nino that will not be able to block all the cold air like the big ones 82-83 and 97-98 but will be able to thwart most of the cold air.  82-83 was warm but got basically lucky with a biggie.  This year a lot of ones to watch but just too warm mostly.

The snowfall call is tougher because one can produce. He thinks 3/4 3-4" events   Temps seem pretty solid.   We  see a lot of 35 and rain around DC and 31 and heavy snow in Lancaster this season.  Interestingly he thinks the chances of snow on the ground Christmas Day is above the norm.

 

 

I look forward to Zwyts outlook as he has had a 70% handle on it for almost 10 years. Isotherm stellar again last year.

Other posters please put yours in here. Separate is fine but having it consolidated to one discussion could be really good.

[Isotherm]

All three months +1 to +3 in temps.

DCA snowfall:14"

Liquid equiv:Above average

 

Analog years  58-59,70-71,05-06

 

My 2015-16 Winter Outlook

Dec:-0.5

Jan:+1

Feb:+1

Overall:+0.5

DCA snowfall:5-10"

Suburbs:12-20"

Liq.equiv:Above average

 

Analog years:52-53,53-54,72-73

 

We discussed our narrative and they are the same. Moderate+ el nino that will not be able to block all the cold air like the big ones 82-83 and 97-98 but will be able to thwart most of the cold air.  82-83 was warm but got basically lucky with a biggie.  This year a lot of ones to watch but just too warm mostly.

The snowfall call is tougher because one can produce. He thinks 3/4 3-4" events   Temps seem pretty solid.   We  see a lot of 35 and rain around DC and 31 and heavy snow in Lancaster this season.  Interestingly he thinks the chances of snow on the ground Christmas Day is above the norm.

 

 

I look forward to Zwyts outlook as he has had a 70% handle on it for almost 10 years. Isotherm stellar again last year.

Other posters please put yours in here. Separate is fine but having it consolidated to one discussion could be really good.

 

Interesting forecasts, Tenman. The closest analog KA has to this season's ENSO is 58-59, but no mod/strong Nino's. You do have a strong Nino (72-73) on your list, however. I think recall you saying the KA creates the forecast predominately on prior sensible weather trends, and thus ENSO could appear somewhat unrelated. Good luck with verification. Still awhile before I'll issue mine; I'm thinking sometime toward the early-mid part of November should be sufficient this year.

[WEATHER53]

Interesting forecasts, Tenman. The closest analog KA has to this season's ENSO is 58-59, but no mod/strong Nino's. You do have a strong Nino (72-73) on your list, however. I think recall you saying the KA creates the forecast predominately on prior sensible weather trends, and thus ENSO could appear somewhat unrelated. Good luck with verification. Still awhile before I'll issue mine; I'm thinking sometime toward the early-mid part of November should be sufficient this year.

We do not believe that matching enso is a requirement.  Sensible occurrent weather is the underlying factor and then the enso is blended in a a serious contributor but not a prerequisite.

[uncle W]

All three months +1 to +3 in temps.

DCA snowfall:14"

Liquid equiv:Above average

 

Analog years  58-59,70-71,05-06

 

My 2015-16 Winter Outlook

Dec:-0.5

Jan:+1

Feb:+1

Overall:+0.5

DCA snowfall:5-10"

Suburbs:12-20"

Liq.equiv:Above average

 

Analog years:52-53,53-54,72-73

 

We discussed our narrative and they are the same. Moderate+ el nino that will not be able to block all the cold air like the big ones 82-83 and 97-98 but will be able to thwart most of the cold air.  82-83 was warm but got basically lucky with a biggie.  This year a lot of ones to watch but just too warm mostly.

The snowfall call is tougher because one can produce. He thinks 3/4 3-4" events   Temps seem pretty solid.   We  see a lot of 35 and rain around DC and 31 and heavy snow in Lancaster this season.  Interestingly he thinks the chances of snow on the ground Christmas Day is above the norm.

 

 

I look forward to Zwyts outlook as he has had a 70% handle on it for almost 10 years. Isotherm stellar again last year.

Other posters please put yours in here. Separate is fine but having it consolidated to one discussion could be really good.

good luck with the forecast tenman...I have my own ideas and will put it on paper soon...I'm hoping the AO/NAO are more negative this year in February when it counts like 1982-83...

[iceman56]

Any consideration being given to the high SST's along the west coast of the US? Would think that would lead to a more wintery outcome.

[WEATHER53]

What has occurred since the issuance of my forecast is supportive of a mild side winter. First 10 days of Octobet being quite cool has an analog pattern tied to mild winters. Not saying it is causal but rather that is just how it works out. Hope we can avoid any nor'easters in the 10/24-10/31 time frame as that combined with a cool first 10 days is death for a decent winter

[Mitchel Volk]

I see two scenarios for this winter, both have many storms coming up the east coast.  If we get a normal strong El Nino the northeast will have above temperatures with average now fall.  However since water temperatures are above normal off the Calf and Mexico coast there will be an increase chance for a +PNA and possible blocking.  If this occurs the northeast will have a cold and snowy winter.

[WEATHER53]

I see two scenarios for this winter, both have many storms coming up the east coast.  If we get a normal strong El Nino the northeast will have above temperatures with average now fall.  However since water temperatures are above normal off the Calf and Mexico coast there will be an increase chance for a +PNA and possible blocking.  If this occurs the northeast will have a cold and snowy winter.

Either may match what happens here with lots of good tracks but hard to get the cold air.

[Roger Smith]

My outlook calls for exceptional warmth in many parts of central and eastern North America for the first half of the winter, fading slowly to a near normal February in those regions and possibly a colder than average March. The far west will be generally very mild, as will almost all parts of western Canada.

 

During spells of exceptional warmth, record high temperatures may occur and these may even threaten monthly records, not just daily records. A good analogue may be the winter of 1905-06, temperatures peaked in some eastern states near 75-80 F around Jan 22nd (1906) in that winter. The analogue of 1982-83 also factors in here, although its greatest anomalies came in December 1982.

 

Obviously this would not be much of a winter for snowfall yet the changeover to more seasonable and then cold conditions in the last third of winter might allow for one or two decent east coast snowstorms and an eventual regime with more frequent snow cover than bare ground in the Great Lakes and Midwest, but I believe the main story of the winter will be the exceptional warmth.

 

My reasons are generally related to the large-scale factors extensively discussed in other forecasts already posted, I am probably just adding a few climatological details to a general picture which is emerging from those other forecasts.

[griteater]

I posted an outlook here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47140-griteaters-winter-outlook-15-16/?p=3737459

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Chambana]

Great reads everyone. Local met here agreeing with everyone forecast, said a back loaded winter is in the making.

[WEATHER53]

Cosgrove going cold to very cold for jan and feb for midcatlantic . the occurent weather in October analog wise continues to support my ideas of a moderately mild winter yet not snowless. I do not think that the excessive warmth (+3) calls will materialize as the October occurrent weather analogs do not super such an extreme

[Roger Smith]

So much depends on whether the El Nino becomes more "Modoki" than eastern-based. In my forecast, I assumed it would begin to show some Modoki tendencies but perhaps not as strongly as in Feb 2010. But that sort of outcome is in the mix.

 

If you recall the winter of 1982-83 was almost a non-event away from that one large snowstorm on the east coast. That missed the Great Lakes region and almost all winter was snow free. I can recall driving north of Peterborough ON into areas that usually have 2 feet of snow cover in mid-January and finding just patches of snow in shady locations, after record warmth in December. It started to turn colder in January but still failed to produce any snow. The only significant snowfall that winter came in late March and lasted about three days.

 

Well, every case is different of course, but I think some part of the winter and most likely in Dec and Jan will run near-record warm before some later part becomes slightly colder than average. The big question will be whether that part of the winter will have much energy for snowfall events, or just become a series of cold highs over bare ground, the worst sort of winter weather for enthusiasts and golf course operators.

 

By the way, a slightly cool October like this one in the northeast U.S. and Great Lakes regions looks very similar to both 1905 and 1982 which I used as analogues. The anomalous warmth in 1905-06 did not really kick in until Christmas, while in 1982 it started to get quite warm in mid-November. The 1906 extreme warmth shut off rapidly in late January, while the 1982-83 warmth was pretty much exhausted by New Years. Then there was 1997-98 and the big ice storm in Ontario, Quebec and parts of the inland northeast U.S..

 

We've had some very unusual patterns the past six or seven winters. Nobody should be too surprised if this winter goes from one extreme to the other at some point, at least in temperature trend. That's got to deliver major winter storms to some part of the east, you would imagine, but where exactly? My guess is New England and eastern Canada more than regions further west. When I look at analogues that are not driven by SOI then one which shows up is 1968-69, a big snowfall winter for New England. There again, not much snow in the Great Lakes region at times, blocking pretty much eliminated lake effect snow and February was a very bland sort of month away from the east coast. I think the main source region for air masses in southern Ontario was Labrador and the Greenland Sea.

 

I didn't mention this earlier since the focus here is eastern U.S. but this seems likely to be a very heavy snowfall year in higher elevations of the Rocky Mountain states and there may be heavier than normal rains in lower levels of the desert southwest region and southern California. I am expecting it to be very mild in BC and WA/OR with slightly below normal rainfalls in coastal regions, and a higher than average snow line but there could be a few weeks of heavy snow in coastal mountain ranges too if it gets cold enough maybe around mid to late January.

[Roger Smith]

Well then ...

 

I continue to expect this torchy pattern to last into mid-January then it will begin to transition to a much colder regime in a series of high-amplitude flip-flops that could involve stupendous lake effect snowfalls as the Great Lakes are going to remain well above their normal January temperatures.

 

Then with strong high pressure likely to dominate in eastern Canada and New England in February, there should be one or two opportunities for east coast snowstorms to develop. I am going to mention two higher than random windows of opportunity for these storms -- Feb 8 to 12 and Feb 21 to 25. If the mild pattern holds on longer than I'm expecting, those energy peaks will be shifted northwest into the Great Lakes and north-central plains regions and will give them the heavy snowstorms instead. But I figure that with all the anomalous warmth including that being experienced in Europe this month, Greenland will start to block at some point and it should favor the east coast in a possible Feb 2010 repeat (at least 50% strength anyway). Would then expect the wintry pattern to break down gradually in early March.

[gopper]

I am riding the Roger Smith Train!  You have impressed me on a number of occasions with your predictions for the east coast including the mid-Atlantic Region.  Thank you for sharing your thoughts here and on the mid-Atlantic sub forum!

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well then ...

 

I continue to expect this torchy pattern to last into mid-January then it will begin to transition to a much colder regime in a series of high-amplitude flip-flops that could involve stupendous lake effect snowfalls as the Great Lakes are going to remain well above their normal January temperatures.

 

Then with strong high pressure likely to dominate in eastern Canada and New England in February, there should be one or two opportunities for east coast snowstorms to develop. I am going to mention two higher than random windows of opportunity for these storms -- Feb 8 to 12 and Feb 21 to 25. If the mild pattern holds on longer than I'm expecting, those energy peaks will be shifted northwest into the Great Lakes and north-central plains regions and will give them the heavy snowstorms instead. But I figure that with all the anomalous warmth including that being experienced in Europe this month, Greenland will start to block at some point and it should favor the east coast in a possible Feb 2010 repeat (at least 50% strength anyway). Would then expect the wintry pattern to break down gradually in early March.

I agree RE March......I think it's Feb an potentially late January.

Some of the data that i was looking at implies a ramp down that month.

[WEATHER53]

Cold Mongolian high pressure is in evidence. That usually is an indicator of cold and more lasting cold for the midatlantic in 2-3 weeks

[thunderbolt]

It looks like that KA miss December by quite a bit with this temperature call

[40/70 Benchmark]

It looks like that KA miss December by quite a bit with this temperature call

Yea, I cringed reading that portion of his outlook last fall.

[WEATHER53]

Keith went +1 to + 3 so nothing wrong with that

My call of -0.5 was the bad one

Read before criticism

[iceicebyebye]

Cold Mongolian high pressure is in evidence. That usually is an indicator of cold and more lasting cold for the midatlantic in 2-3 weeks

Well you did make a quite horrid prediction not so long past. So any with a right mind would take this new profession with a tad bit of salt.

[thunderbolt]

Keith went +1 to + 3 so nothing wrong with that

My call of -0.5 was the bad one

Read before criticism

you're right my bad you're going to miss it just by a tad

[WEATHER53]

Cold Mongolian high pressure is in evidence. That usually is an indicator of cold and more lasting cold for the midatlantic in 2-3 weeks

On its way and Merry christmas

[40/70 Benchmark]

Keith went +1 to + 3 so nothing wrong with that

My call of -0.5 was the bad one

Read before criticism

KA has an awesome track record.

Slightly above average was wrong.

Get over it.

It happens.

[thunderbolt]

KA has an awesome track record.

Slightly above average was wrong.

Get over it.

It happens.

ouch

[WEATHER53]

KA has an awesome track record.

Slightly above average was wrong.

Get over it.

It happens.

That would be incorrect +3 is well above average prediction and that is what verified

+1 is above average and that is also what occurred Most of us have grown out of our childish chiding behaviors-time for you to get over that

[40/70 Benchmark]

That would be incorrect +3 is well above average prediction and that is what verified

+1 is above average and that is also what occurred Most of us have grown out of our childish chiding behaviors-time for you to get over that

+1 is much above average?

Get over this

Put one in your mouth

[40/70 Benchmark]

Apparently he has posters of KA in his room.

[WEATHER53]

All three months +1 to +3 in temps.

DCA snowfall:14"

Liquid equiv:Above average

 

Analog years  58-59,70-71,05-06

 

My 2015-16 Winter Outlook

Dec:-0.5

Jan:+1

Feb:+1

Overall:+0.5

DCA snowfall:5-10"

Suburbs:12-20"

Liq.equiv:Above average

 

Analog years:52-53,53-54,72-73

 

We discussed our narrative and they are the same. Moderate+ el nino that will not be able to block all the cold air like the big ones 82-83 and 97-98 but will be able to thwart most of the cold air.  82-83 was warm but got basically lucky with a biggie.  This year a lot of ones to watch but just too warm mostly.

The snowfall call is tougher because one can produce. He thinks 3/4 3-4" events   Temps seem pretty solid.   We  see a lot of 35 and rain around DC and 31 and heavy snow in Lancaster this season.  Interestingly he thinks the chances of snow on the ground Christmas Day is above the norm.

 

 

I look forward to Zwyts outlook as he has had a 70% handle on it for almost 10 years. Isotherm stellar again last year.

Other posters please put yours in here. Separate is fine but having it consolidated to one discussion could be really good.

KA had a good outlook on the overall temps, he was at +2 and it was even milder but still good call. 2 out of 3 months correct also

Snowfall was off but not terrible. Give that a D

The narrative part of my forecast turned out to be very true. Like 1983 we did squeak out the big one but otherwise not good

However my values were off, +0.5 for the overall and it was way milder than thst but day least correct side of departure. Real good Feb temp call but not Dec or Jan. Snowfall way off also

[Isotherm]

Not bad overall. The extremity of the warmth (or cold) is impossible to nail from long leads, so KA's temperature forecast looks like an A- to me. Snowfall poor, probably D range. I'd probably give him a B- overall. Your forecast missed the snowfall, but temperatures were not bad. Correct side of departure, although magnitude far underestimated. Your overall grade is probably low-mid C range.

 

My outlook was not too dissimilar from yours with temperatures. I had near normal across the Mid-atlantic with warmer than normal for the Northeast from Albany-Boston northward. OK temps. I'm happy about my snowfall outlook which had 27-35" for the DCA-BWI-PHL corridor and 37-42" in the NYC metro area. Had the bullyseye anomaly wise over the Mid-atlantic. So temperatures "OK" and snowfall very good. I would still consider this winter a "hit" for me. Probably C/C+ overall. I'm going to wait to do my verification until the end of the month; however, just in case we pull some late season snow across New England or the coast.