forkyfork Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 also the EPS has been consistently drier than the op euro and that held on the 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 the gfs made major changes and now curls the rain around us to the west in response to the strong ridge. i expect it to back off more as we get closer If you want more rain you want the system to slow down and stay as far West as possible. The rain will eventually come in Sunday night or Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 I am interested to see what the GGEM shows coming up shortly. It has been the wettest model for quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 the gfs made major changes and now curls the rain around us to the west in response to the strong ridge. i expect it to back off more as we get closer You've been on the money thus far. I'd be shocked if we see more than a few showers, too bad about the cloudy skies though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Regardless of the rain, eclipse cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 GFS like the dump in NC and VA-up to a foot of rain in the next 3 days over NE NC. WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 GFS like the dump in NC and VA-up to a foot of rain in the next 3 days over NE NC. WOW 6 day total of 29.0" of rain in extreme NE NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Regardless of the rain, eclipse cancel assuming this one model run will be correct and assuming that map isn't overdone. the euro still shows broken clouds and those clouds are most likely to be thin cirrus considering all the dry air in the mid and low levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 assuming this one model run will be correct and assuming that map isn't overdone. the euro still shows broken clouds and those clouds are most likely to be thin cirrus considering all the dry air in the mid and low levels To use your words, you are assuming that the Euro is correct, and regardless of the height of the cloud deck, it will greatly inhibit the viewing of the eclipse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 well the gfs moved in the euro's direction, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 well the gfs moved in the euro's direction, so... Could be a fluke noise run of the GFS. Ensembles will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 12z GGEM didn't disappoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 12z GGEM didn't disappoint. I'm stuck at hour 30 on Tropical tidbits-anywhere else to get it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 what, no mention of the ukmet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 what, no mention of the ukmet? All you need to see that this run is garbage is to look at the totals it has for North Carolina. Most of the models have that area receiving over a foot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 so it's wrong because it doesn't show a foot of rain for NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Forky is right, models trending away from a bigger event further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 12z CMC-looks somewhat like the GFS and NAM, the eastern blob of rain that hits NYC and east is further east on the GFS - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 the euro is still bone dry through monday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 The Euro has been pretty dry for us the last few days. So i wouldnt say its waffling. The hints have been there for our neck of the woods to get hit later on in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 BTW, surface temps on the Euro are in the upper 40's over NW zones late Thursday night. 925mb and 700mb temps very briefly dip into the lower single digits. Certainly not a setup that would support snow but perhaps a little sleet at coldest locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 LOL, we get pounded all day Saturday too. Cut off low eventually retrogrades to Chicago. Massive block sets up over SE Quebec. What a dream run for those that enjoy active weather. 5-7" of rain through day 9 areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 The Canadian has that too. Fantasy this far out, but let's hope it's the signs of a wetter/more interesting pattern. We finally clear out Monday morning. This might be the wettest Euro run I have ever seen for us that didn't involve a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 The most difficult / challenging storm to predict is the one that inevitably "breaks the drought" thereby reversing the current paradigm. I for one would not get my hopes up about any significant rains until they are progged < 2-3 days away. I think the reversal will occur eventually this autumn, but when exactly is a difficult question. Some analogs maintain the dry pattern through October, some do not. It does appear, at least per the ECMWF weeklies, that the NPAC regime may change in 2 weeks, which would at the very least introduce more FROPAs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Would like to see the Euro hold on to its heavy rain cutoff storm idea for a couple of more days before buying into it, hopefully it is onto something since we can really use the rain. Eventually the floodgates will open it is just a matter of when at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 18z NAM has some light rain/drizzle here by 8pm Sunday, but bulk of the rain is to our N and W-still a stream of moisture into NC-they are going to get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 the nam and gfs are even drier in the mid levels and this is the driest gfs run yet. game on for the eclipse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 the nam and gfs are even drier in the mid levels and this is the driest gfs run yet. game on for the eclipse Clouds still are an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 The 00z GGEM still has 1"+ back to TTN. Rain begins around 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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