forkyfork Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 even your beloved sref is bone dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 But the surface high is over the VA capes on Sunday night rather than 200 miles offshore. Light rain up to NYC by 21z Sunday and up into the LHV by 00z. Good luck with your eclipse, GFS indicates > 95% total cloud cover almost up to Albany by 21z. yeah, I'd be shocked if we are clear enough for the eclipse. Hopefully yes, but would think at least some high clouds in the best scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 even your beloved sref is bone dry Using the SREF at 87hrs to justify something? Surely you can do better than that. The 12z GGEM is actually wetter for Western areas than 00z was. So to recap, we have the long range NAM which shows rain, The 12z GFS which shows rain, and 12z GGEM which shows rain and the Euro is really the only model that shows nothing. I bet if the Euro was the only wet model you would be making a case as to why it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 I really don't see any organized rain events. Any rains will be reduced to just showers. I won't bite on anything unless we see a substantial pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 I really could care less if it rains on Sunday. As previously stated, as long as it holds off until late afternoon would be fine with me. The problem for those seeking to view the eclipse is the projected cloud deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 I really don't see any organized rain events. Any rains will be reduced to just showers. I won't bite on anything unless we see a substantial pattern change. There is a very good chance that it just ends up cloudy/windy/showery which is non conducive for viewing the eclipse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Using the SREF at 87hrs to justify something? Surely you can do better than that.at that range it should be super amped. red flag The 12z GGEM is actually wetter for Western areas than 00z was. the ggem has problems with convective feedback and spinning up phantom tropical systems So to recap, we have the long range NAM which shows rain, The 12z GFS which shows rain, and 12z GGEM which shows rain and the Euro is really the only model that shows nothing. the gfs maps might show precip but they're wrong based on soundings. rain isn't going to make it through 15,000 feet of dry air. and the nam doesn't have support from its related ensemble (sref) I bet if the Euro was the only wet model you would be making a case as to why it's wrong. i already made my case as to why any wet model is wrong. confluence, high pressure, and dry air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 and now that i've actually seen the ggem it trended toward the euro. the high is stronger vs 00z and there's also more dry air north of the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 out of the area but Eastern NC and VA look like they are in for a super soaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 and now that i've actually seen the ggem it trended toward the euro. the high is stronger vs 00z and there's also more dry air north of the system it does move offshore quickly, but as I mentioned earlier, there might not be alot of precip left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Come on guys we have been there done that a million times. I agree with forky if the SREF is done we have little chance at precip. And King euro is king for a reason. We are looking at a run of the mill cloudy breezy day. With big wave of course!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 What's the 12z Euro looking like? We could be in for the ultimate screwgie-no rain, but cloudy skies to ruin the viewing of the lunar eclipse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 looks about the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 btw, those simulated cloud maps are overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 18z NAM literally arc the rains around the region, Pittsburgh and Cleveland get more than us....at the end of the run there's a fair amount of precip left around with the high moving out so maybe we get some showers Sun night -Mon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 18z NAM literally arc the rains around the region, Pittsburgh and Cleveland get more than us....at the end of the run there's a fair amount of precip left around with the high moving out so maybe we get some showers Sun night -Mon? Stop taking the long range NAM verbatim. If you want us to get rain then you want the NAM at this range to be well West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Stop taking the long range NAM verbatim. If you want us to get rain then you want the NAM at this range to be well West. I get that, but the take away from the run is that that high means business. Maybe we get rain, but looks like it might be delayed until Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Stop taking the long range NAM verbatim. If you want us to get rain then you want the NAM at this range to be well West. no, you want it to be north. not one sref member gives us a drop btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Some models still wet, GFS and CMC, the NAM hold offs til Monday. Euro shows an interesting system in the long range, slow moving crawler up the coast, but no support from other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Come on guys we have been there done that a million times. I agree with forky if the SREF is done we have little chance at precip. And King euro is king for a reason. We are looking at a run of the mill cloudy breezy day. With big wave of course!!! 0z Euro now has over .75" of rain through 12z Tuesday. The srefs are possibly the worst modeling tool we have. I trust the Navgem more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 0z Euro now has over .75" of rain through 12z Tuesday. The srefs are possibly the worst modeling tool we have. I trust the Navgem more. I think this is a case of delayed but not denied, looks more of a Sunday night/Monday event now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 I think this is a case of delayed but not denied, looks more of a Sunday night/Monday event now. Remember when Forky was bragging about how not a single SREF member showed any rain for the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Looks like a coup for the CMC and GFS. 0z Euro is also wetter Sun-Tues. SREFS should be thrown in the garbage can for good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Looks like a coup for the CMC and GFS. 0z Euro is also wetter Sun-Tues. SREFS should be thrown in the garbage can for good Srefs have been useless for years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 12z NAM is wet, especially for NW sections Sunday night and Monday. Still out of range of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Amazing how prolific the totals are looking for coastal NC, just through Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Radar shows a firehose aimed at NC. If we get a 2nd event late next week like the Euro shows, they could be in trouble for some serious flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Radar shows a firehouse aimed at NC. If we get a 2nd event late next week like the Euro shows, they could be in trouble for some serious flooding. I found it funny that a few of the posters down there were looking at the radar late last night and early this morning, assuming it was over and that the models were going to bust badly. You don't get much more of an anomalous heavy rain setup than this. The real high numbers are probably going to be localized but widespread 6"+ looks likely in SE VA and E NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 the gfs made major changes and now curls the rain around us to the west in response to the strong ridge. i expect it to back off more as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 the gfs made major changes and now curls the rain around us to the west in response to the strong ridge. i expect it to back off more as we get closer The Nam has had a similar theme with the bulk of the rains going to our west at least initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.