forkyfork Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 24 hours of drizzle. hooray! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 24 hours of drizzle. hooray! "It's not over till it's over" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 30-40kt surface winds just offshore on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Just when I was about to pull the plug things are getting a bit more interesting. The 12z GFS is weaker with the high which allows the system to gain quite a bit more latitude before slipping East. In terms of sensible weather, verbatim a nasty, showery, cloudy, windy day. CMC is also coming in wetter for Sunday and not just drizzle/light rain...my parched lawn is saying please verify! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 on another note, remember how wet models were for today in the Mid-Atlantic? There's almost no rain falling anywhere today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 on another note, remember how wet models were for today in the Mid-Atlantic? There's almost no rain falling anywhere today. I think you have your days mixed up. Anyway the GGEM is 1-3" of rain for our area. Heaviest amounts are along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 I think you have your days mixed up. Anyway the GGEM is 1-3" of rain for our area. Heaviest amounts are along the coast. what a big flip...will be interesting to see if the Euro follows suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 what a big flip...will be interesting to see if the Euro follows suit. The GGEM actually ticked North at 00z too. It's noteworthy because it had been one of the furthest South models until yesterday. The GFS also ticked North at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 This stinks. A lot. Has rained literally once in the last 30 days and the one day I need it to not rain this coastal tries its best to verify. Hoping that high trends stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 This stinks. A lot. Has rained literally once in the last 30 days and the one day I need it to not rain this coastal tries its best to verify. Hoping that high trends stronger. The trend is your friend fits well. And I'm not talking about the latest suite comming in wetter. I'm talking about the overall tendency for things to end up dryer here this season. I think its a windy cloudy day with big surf!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 I think you have your days mixed up. Anyway the GGEM is 1-3" of rain for our area. Heaviest amounts are along the coast. through 2 pm Monday when it winds down. Looks to move in at dawn Sunday verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 The trend is your friend fits well. And I'm not talking about the latest suite comming in wetter. I'm talking about the overall tendency for things to end up dryer here this season. I think its a windy cloudy day with big surf!! Yep. It's been that way for months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 The Euro is still really far South, now the driest model. The 12z GEFS mean was wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 the jet energy is so weak and there's barely a mid level reflection. i think some models/ensemble members are having convective feedback problems. we've seen this from the models earlier in the warm season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 While I could be wrong, I still think the kind of solution shown on the GGEM is sort of an outlier given the current pattern. I don't see the ridge breaking down sufficiently to allow for such a wet solution for the New York City metro area. I suspect the precipitation will more likely be largely suppressed to the south and any amounts up here will be relatively modest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 GGEM held serve. 1-3" with 3-6" totals off the NJ coast. GFS is showers and clouds and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 GGEM held serve. 1-3" with 3-6" totals off the NJ coast. GFS is showers and clouds and wind. Euro? end of the Nam shows a northern solution, but the rain are up into western PA and NY with our area staying most dry through the period-some showery stuff here and there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Euro? end of the Nam shows a northern solution, but the rain are up into western PA and NY with our area staying most dry through the period-some showery stuff here and there The Euro was very dry again. The Canadian appears to be a wet outlier. It still looks like any rain will largely be limited. Whether one will be able to view the lunar eclipse is another question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 The GFS is fairly far North. One could make an argument that the precip shield should be more expansive on the Northwestern side since this isn't a warm core system. It would seem that the convection to the East is robbing the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Euro? end of the Nam shows a northern solution, but the rain are up into western PA and NY with our area staying most dry through the period-some showery stuff here and there Classic long range NAM being too far West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Classic long range NAM being too far West. 12z NAM still showing this solution-precip has a hard time coming in against that big high. It slips off the coast Sunday, but the question is whether there will be any precip left by then. the run does show some rains by 2pm Sunday and further east... Looks cloudy and showery for Sunday night-bad news for eclipse viewers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 there's no way we'd have precip hitting the ground with these dry layers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 there's no way we'd have precip hitting the ground with these dry layers You're assuming that the GFS with a close but no cigar approach is correct and I can understand the support given that it essentially splits the difference between the monsoon shown on the GGEM and the total dryness on the Euro. I guess we will see soon which way the GFS is going to trend. Even if the rain is not reaching the ground there should be plenty of clouds around that will inhibit viewing the eclipse. Perhaps a road trip to New England is in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 according to a model that's likely to be wrong. the euro has zero precip and clear skies down to philadelphia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 according to a model that's likely to be wrong. the euro has zero precip and clear skies down to philadelphia Based on what I am seeing on the 12z GFS it looks like the Euro is going to be an extreme outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 The 12z GFS is foucsing development right over OBX rather than well offshore and measurable precip is almost up to Philly by dawn on Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 the high is stronger on this run and there's a bigger press of dry air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 A stronger high or further West high initially allows everything to slow down enough so that it can eventually creep North. A faster retreating high would allow the system to slip East as the high departs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 the high is stronger on this run and there's a bigger press of dry air But the surface high is over the VA capes on Sunday night rather than 200 miles offshore. Light rain up to NYC by 21z Sunday and up into the LHV by 00z. Good luck with your eclipse, GFS indicates > 95% total cloud cover almost up to Albany by 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 i don't care what a qpf map says. there's no way rain hits the ground with a sounding like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.