bluewave Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 While it's still beyond 5 days away, the models are indicating that there will be a storm pressing north against a very strong high by later in the weekend. It's still too early to know how far north the heaviest rains will get. But the strong onshore flow is occurring at the time of some of the highest astronomical tides of 2015. All it would take for minor flooding are tides .5 to 1 foot above normal. A 2 foot surge would be near the the moderate flooding level. Large waves and beach erosion could also be possible. We have time to track since the potential is still outside the 120 hr range. Sandy Hook tides as a reference http://earthsky.org/?p=190918 If you live along a coastline, watch for high tides caused by the September 28 perigee full moon – or supermoon – over the next several days. Will the high tides cause flooding? Probably not, unless a strong weather system moves into the coastline where you are. Still, keep an eye on the weather, because storms do have a large potential to accentuate high spring tides. As a result, if you live near a coast, you’ll want to be on the lookout for higher-than-usual tides. Because the moon – as always – shines pretty much opposite the sun at the vicinity of full moon, you’ll see the moon beaming all night tonight from dusk until dawn. This extra-close full moon is likely to usher in large tides along the ocean shorelines for the next several days, especially if these high tides are accompanied by strong onshore winds. Bottom line: The full moon of September 28, 2015 is the closest and largest full moon of this year. By a new definition – one that has entered the world of astronomy from astrology – many will call it a supermoon. There are three full moons in 2015 that meet the definition of a supermoon – August, September and October. But this September 28 full moon is the mostsuper of the supermoons! A super-duper moon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 While it's still beyond 5 days away, the models are indicating that there will be a storm pressing north against a very strong high by later in the weekend. It's still too early to know how far the heaviest rains will get. But the strong onshore flow is occurring at the time of some of the highest astronomical tides of 2015. All it would take for minor flooding are tides .5 to 1 foot above normal. A 2 foot surge would be near the the moderate flooding level. Large waves and beach erosion could also be possible. We have time to track since the potential is still outside the 120 hr range. Sandy Hook tides as a reference serveimage.gif http://earthsky.org/?p=190918 If you live along a coastline, watch for high tides caused by the September 28 perigee full moon – or supermoon – over the next several days. Will the high tides cause flooding? Probably not, unless a strong weather system moves into the coastline where you are. Still, keep an eye on the weather, because storms do have a large potential to accentuate high spring tides. As a result, if you live near a coast, you’ll want to be on the lookout for higher-than-usual tides. Because the moon – as always – shines pretty much opposite the sun at the vicinity of full moon, you’ll see the moon beaming all night tonight from dusk until dawn. This extra-close full moon is likely to usher in large tides along the ocean shorelines for the next several days, especially if these high tides are accompanied by strong onshore winds. Bottom line: The full moon of September 28, 2015 is the closest and largest full moon of this year. By a new definition – one that has entered the world of astronomy from astrology – many will call it a supermoon. There are three full moons in 2015 that meet the definition of a supermoon – August, September and October. But this September 28 full moon is the mostsuper of the supermoons! A super-duper moon! Wow. Could this help cool down the warm pool off the coast bluewave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Euro was 1.5+ Last night and gfs was not as wet but had a long stretch with a onshore flow and light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Wow. Could this help cool down the warm pool off the coast bluewave? Persistent NE winds will upwell for sure, just 1 day did this off Montauk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Definitely something to watch: Map from WxBell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 It's something to watch in an otherwise boring weather pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 You can see how the 00z ECWMF ensemble mean has been slowly trending weaker and further North with the blocking high over New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Definitely something to watch: wave_height_dir_bermuda_49.png Map from WxBell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 i'd rather see the eclipse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 i'd rather see the eclipse Not looking so good, that sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 i'd rather see the eclipse I don't think that's happening even if the rain stays South. The cloud deck will probably be extensive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 it would be nice to see a coastal storm hit the area...we need a good storm track with possibly limited cold air this year...is this the start of the fall pattern or just model fantasy?...TWT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 We'll probably need additional runs to be sure. The 9/21 12z ECMWF showed 0.00" qpf for NYC, while the 9/22 0z run showed 1.91". That's an enormous change, so some measure of caution is probably helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 We'll probably need additional runs to be sure. The 9/21 12z ECMWF showed 0.00" qpf for NYC, while the 9/22 0z run showed 1.91". That's an enormous change, so some measure of caution is probably helpful. Don, the ensembles only had .1-.2 qpf as well. Definitely a red flag for the 00z op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Not looking so good, that sucks It never fails. Never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 12z Canadian well south with the precip, while GFS brings in some lighter amounts Monday on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 both models are much further south of their 0z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 The high wins, I don't expect more than a couple showers if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 I actually want the rain to miss on Sunday as I have tickets for the Jets game, but I don't understand how people can call something a forgone conclusion when the system is still 5+ days away. Have you all not seen how terrible models can be at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Sunday is my birthday and have a 35 person tailgate for the Jets game happening. The rain can miss this time, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 The 12z Euro looks south, at least through Sunday afternoon. It looks absolutely raw for the Jets game with temps in the middle 60's, a stiff Easterly wind of 20-30MPH and mostly cloudy to overcast skies. The saving grace will be that at least on the Euro, the cloud deck looks to be elevated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 I actually want the rain to miss on Sunday as I have tickets for the Jets game, but I don't understand how people can call something a forgone conclusion when the system is still 5+ days away. Have you all not seen how terrible models can be at this range? I don't think it's over by a long shot, but that high has been persistent for a good chunk of time, so in the end, persistence is the way to go with the dry pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 I don't think it's over by a long shot, but that high has been persistent for a good chunk of time, so in the end, persistence is the way to go with the dry pattern. Winds may end up being the main story. The low pressure system remains weak so you're not going to end up with as big of pressure gradient as you might normally have with a deepening surface low but things could still be quite gusty, especially on the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 The Euro is so far South that DC ends up with nothing while 00z gave them around 2.5". JP area is coastal NC with 6-12" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 The 12z Euro looks south, at least through Sunday afternoon. It looks absolutely raw for the Jets game with temps in the middle 60's, a stiff Easterly wind of 20-30MPH and mostly cloudy to overcast skies. The saving grace will be that at least on the Euro, the cloud deck looks to be elevated. Sounds like football weather to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 The 12z GEFS mean is also drier by around 0.25". I still don't think all of this means that much. We probably won't know for sure before Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Sounds like football weather to me. You might say that. 65 degrees without sun and with gusty winds is colder than ideal for a late September game. I purposely pick better weather games to go to. Once the weather turns I am happier watching my 60" TV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 The 18z GFS was pretty far North, just slips East at the last minute. 1"+ contour runs from Cape May to Montauk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 12Z EURO is 0" here but ensembles do have about 1". Ditto 12Z CMC. Only the GFS really looks serious for us. Meanwhile the official 6-10- and 8-14 day outlook is above normal T's everywhere and below normal Precips above Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Just when I was about to pull the plug things are getting a bit more interesting. The 12z GFS is weaker with the high which allows the system to gain quite a bit more latitude before slipping East. In terms of sensible weather, verbatim a nasty, showery, cloudy, windy day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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