H2O Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 bumped mine up to reflect the coming wall of water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 edited: RIC 11/10 DCA 11/23 IAD 11/4 BWI 11/10 DCA OCT rain 3.54" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Get your submissions in! Any mods who are staying up for the 0z runs, can you lock the thread at midnight please? Thanks! I'll do it in the morning otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 RIC: 11/2 DCA: 11/2 IAD: 10/20 BWI: 10/20 Tiebreaker: 8.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 RIC: 11/3 DCA: 11/26 IAD: 10/13 BWI: 11/5 Tiebreaker: 6.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 8, 2015 Author Share Posted October 8, 2015 Took me a week to get around to this. 25 entries recorded (sorry pazzo). Our mean dates: DCA: Nov 13 IAD: Oct 28 BWI: Nov 1 RIC: Nov 7 Tie: 5.71" DCA has 1.93" of rain so far this month. We all got spooked by Joaquin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 8, 2015 Author Share Posted October 8, 2015 freeze2015.tiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 methinks Andy's guess of 15" may not be met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 methinks Andy's guess of 15" may not be met. just wait. Pattern has been set for more epic model rain forecasts. i could end up low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Clarity slowly emerging with strong cold front next weekend. Sunday or monday morning could be it for IAD. Possibly for BWI as well. 12z GFS/Euro looking really similar. GFS a bit quicker but the end results are the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 11, 2015 Author Share Posted October 11, 2015 0z Euro and 6z GFS continue the prog for a big cold/cool blast next weekend. Dunno what Euro surface temps are, but GFS has the entire area in the 30s Sunday morning and western areas in the 30s on Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 13, 2015 Author Share Posted October 13, 2015 Yoda's got the inside track if IAD and BWI hit this weekend, but if RIC gets a freeze as well, I believe Ian will be in 1st place. Yoda has a very early freeze for DCA, while Ian has a climo-ish forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Yoda's got the inside track if IAD and BWI hit this weekend, but if RIC gets a freeze as well, I believe Ian will be in 1st place. Yoda has a very early freeze for DCA, while Ian has a climo-ish forecast. I heavily hugged strong Nino climo (plus 1987 because it keeps showing up in various analyses) tho it's actually pretty close to our current climo too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 13, 2015 Author Share Posted October 13, 2015 I heavily hugged strong Nino climo (plus 1987 because it keeps showing up in various analyses) tho it's actually pretty close to our current climo too. I ran the numbers just for fun for a 10/18 or 10/19 freeze for IAD and BWI and IAD, BWI, and RIC. Basically, you need RIC to hit this weekend to be in a commanding lead. If RIC doesn't hit, things become more complicated. HighStakes also is going to be very well-positioned if only IAD and BWI have a freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 If I'm reading correctly, MOS for IAD is not a sure thing on a freeze this weekend. Ant Euro update for the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 If I'm reading correctly, MOS for IAD is not a sure thing on a freeze this weekend. Ant Euro update for the weekend? Euro keeps most or all of the area from hitting freezing.. mainly mid-30s on the cold mornings. GFS has much of the area near or below freezing west of 95 Sun morning and a touch warmer Mon morning but still near or below in places west. I think MOS would tend to run warm from this range given its climo bend. But the intensity of the cold seems to have moderated a bit as we close. I'd think Dulles has a decent shot one way or another. The others I wouldn't bet on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 The wxbell WRF gets it done. Except in suckville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 If we can somehow go through Monday night without hitting freezing anywhere, then I'm liking my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 What's the Euro say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 What's the Euro say? Frost well west of 95 on Sunday, on Monday freeze NW and frost (34-35F) for the Beltway. The temp distribution is pretty weird though. It shows barely a freeze up towards mapgirl with 35F in Baltimore City. If that 35F came true, it would easily be 29-30F NW. I'm going with the NAM. Freeze for all on Sunday (and I'm assuming Monday as well). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Euro still seems too warm. The downscaled WRF based on Euro looks like it did last night (posted above). MOS gets Dulles to freezing now and RIC to 33. BWI 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 IAD has already reached 32°F as of 1:52am EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Possible we end up with all but DCA tho I wonder if NWS is too cold tonight in spots esp 95 and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 19, 2015 Author Share Posted October 19, 2015 BWI hit 31, but it looks like RIC will stay safely above freezing tonight. Yoda is leading right now with a departure of only 1 day, then High Stakes with 3 days, Ian with 5, and mapgirl with 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 I think it is safe to say I will NOT win this. Good thing too. My precip call was gonna help me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 BWI hit 31, but it looks like RIC will stay safely above freezing tonight. Yoda is leading right now with a departure of only 1 day, then High Stakes with 3 days, Ian with 5, and mapgirl with 9. So we have had IAD on 10/18 and BWI on 10/19? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 I'm hoping for a "well at least I got DCA and RIC right" when trying to find a way to spin my finish near last place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 BWI hit 31, but it looks like RIC will stay safely above freezing tonight. Yoda is leading right now with a departure of only 1 day, then High Stakes with 3 days, Ian with 5, and mapgirl with 9. Finally, a contest where I have a chance to win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Finally, a contest where I have a chance to win Too bad your DCA number sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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