snowlover2 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Last frame of 0z Euro. That low down south near GA/FL looks to have room to go toward WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Last frame of 0z Euro. That low down south near GA/FL looks to have room to go toward WV. With that low scooting into the lakes and the trough positively tilted, I suspect it would head towards the MA coast. But having all those players on the field 10 days out is all that counts. Lots of subtle timing issues could make huge differences. Euro ens should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Meh, ens means kind of sucks. Low off the NC coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 ILN liking snow shower potential on Monday even mentioning squalls. Columbus might beat its record by just a couple of days. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH414 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.IN ADDITION COLDER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THEDAY AND H8 WINDS WILL BE OFF OF THE LAKES. THESE CONDITIONS WILLSET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH SNOWACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOWSHOWERS OR BRIEF SNOW SQUALL TYPE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDSWILL PICK UP FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS WHICH WILL FURTHER HELP TO REDUCEVSBYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 ILN liking snow shower potential on Monday even mentioning squalls. Columbus might beat its record by just a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 0z GFS has the storm again after the 18z lost it. It's starts farther north and takes a track ENE from AR to just south of Cincy to SE OH before transfer. Rain to snow event on this run here some accum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 The day 9-10 'storm' is now replaced with an overwhelming cold push on the 00z euro... and now the gfs has lost it too. After we get that rainstorm late this week, the 5h pattern really blows for winter storms effecting the sub, if the most recent models runs are correct. For those who wanted cold....congrats, that part looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 The day 9-10 'storm' is now replaced with an overwhelming cold push on the 00z euro... and now the gfs has lost it too. After we get that rainstorm late this week, the 5h pattern really blows for winter storms effecting the sub, if the most recent models runs are correct. For those who wanted cold....congrats, that part looks good.Well at least we'll break that record after today. Now back to your regularly scheduled winter of warm & wet, cold & dry...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Well at least we'll break that record after today. Now back to your regularly scheduled winter of warm & wet, cold & dry...... yea, at least we have the futility record going for us lol. I'm not totally giving up on the day 8-10 stuff, but definitely took a huge leap backwards in the latest model runs. Maybe we can get under a decent fetch on Monday and finally whiten the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 yea, at least we have the futility record going for us lol. I'm not totally giving up on the day 8-10 stuff, but definitely took a huge leap backwards in the latest model runs. Maybe we can get under a decent fetch on Monday and finally whiten the ground. Not that long ago, everyone was saying that it was looking totally dry the first few weeks of January, now there are at least some things going on. And the cold is here. For the record, January is looking to end up 15-20 degrees colder than December. Could end up solidly below normal if things progress as currently shown. As long as it is cold, there's a good chance we'll see accumulating snows. There's no guarantee it will be a ton of snow, and I still would bet that this winter ends up with a below normal total, but at least now it CAN snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 2, 2016 Author Share Posted January 2, 2016 If only this was like 3 days out...http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016010212&fh=276&xpos=0&ypos=3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 12z GGEM took a very similar track as the 0z GFS except its colder and more snow on the NW side. Tracks from TX to the extreme south tip of Ohio before transfer. Most make out well with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 If only this was like 3 days out...http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016010212&fh=276&xpos=0&ypos=3 . Really disheartening to see that fantasy storm system around next weekend fade away and be replaced by yet another 276+ hour event. Maybe it was a model hiccup and the king will bring it back today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 12z GGEM took a very similar track as the 0z GFS except its colder and more snow on the NW side. Tracks from TX to the extreme south tip of Ohio before transfer. Most make out well with this. I hate when the ggem is our lone hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 . Really disheartening to see that fantasy storm system around next weekend fade away and be replaced by yet another 276+ hour event. Maybe it was a model hiccup and the king will bring it back today. All models have been all over the place with this. Its way to early to give up on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Looking like the snowshower/squall activity for Monday is going to favor western OH. Probably Cincy, Dayton, Springfield, will do best. We might be too far east in Columbus area for the better potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 12z Euro had nothing for the 10-12 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 From ILN AFD concerning LES. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH429 PM EST SAT JAN 2 2016.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR ANDQUICKLY CROSS THE REST OF FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THECOLD RUSH OF AIR WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SIGNIFICANTSTRATOCU CLOUD DECK. WITH THE WARM WATER IN THE GREAT LAKES...SNOWBANDS OFF OF ALL OF THEM WILL SET UP BY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVELTROUGH DIGS AND FLOW BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE WITH A NICE FETCH OFFOF LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS FLOW WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED OVERNIGHT ASTHE TROUGH STRENGTHENS ITS ORIENTATION SW-NE AND DEEP CYCLONICFLOW MATCHES THE CURVATURE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SNOW SQUALLS WITHMODERATE TO HEAVY BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A QUICK HALF INCHOF SNOW TO JUST ABOUT ANY AREA OVERNIGHT...PEAKING BY DAYBREAKMONDAY. USED AREAL COVERAGE FOR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME ASEVERYONE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SNOW ACTIVITY BUT THE HEAVIESTTHREAT FOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR WHERE THE LAKE EFFECT BANDSSET UP. DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH IN MOST LOCATIONSBUT BRIEF WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAYMORNING. IF BANDING DOES NOT BECOME PROGRESSIVE...HIGHER AMOUNTSIN THE DAYTON-CINCY CORRIDOR ARE POSSIBLE.THE H5 TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND DIGS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 18Z ANDFLOW TURNS NORTHERLY...EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF LAKE ENHANCE BANDSWITH A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IN CENTRAL OHIO. ATTM...DO NOT FEEL THATTHE HURON/WESTERN LERI FETCH WILL BE THAT ACTIVE AS THE TROUGH OFTHE COLD AIR AT H850 WILL BE THROUGH OHIO AND RELATIVE WARMADVECTION AT AT THIS LEVEL WILL HAMPER THE CONVECTIVE PROCESSESNEEDED TO BRING SNOW DUE SOUTH TO AFFECT CENTRAL OHIO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 18z GFS has the storm again. It's on the weak side but it's back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Yep same here for today. Did you not get much of anything from the burst of snow on the evening of December 2? Got about 1/4" here from that. No, next to nothing on that one down in Bellbrook, but I work near the base and there was close to an inch there (near the Fairfield mall). I figure that's why DAY recorded 2 tenths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Good news is the 0z GFS has a GOM low. Bad news is that it crosses florida, rides up the coast and turns into a major storm. Good news is its east of us at this point with plenty of time to shift west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Good news is the 0z GFS has a GOM low. Bad news is that it crosses florida, rides up the coast and turns into a major storm. Good news is its east of us at this point with plenty of time to shift west. 962 off cape cod Although there is also a low over the great lakes so much of big cities see rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Did they 'tinker' with the GFS again? Its sampling between 168-240hours has been worse than usual. It literally throws energy all over the place without any real trigger the differences at 5h from one run to the next, even in the 144 + time frames are unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 ggem consistent with a weak low to the ohio river, mostly rain for ohio. Obviously completely different than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 0Z GFS slams Western Michigan with that system next week, but is weaker than previous runs. Obvious that models can't make up their minds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Mass confusion going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 0z Euro joins in on the fun. Hour 168 has about a 1004 mb low around New Orleans then at 192 has about a 994 over east North Carolina. Like where we sit right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 0z Euro joins in on the fun. Hour 168 has about a 1004 mb low around New Orleans then at 192 has about a 994 over east North Carolina. Like where we sit right now. unfortunately zero ensemble support. The gfs has a major snow storm for us at hour 240, the ggem is sticking to the weaker further north solution around day 8, and now the euro op has that big coastal day 9. Needless to say model mayhem. Probably won't get a consensus for next weekend for a couple days yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 unfortunately zero ensemble support. The gfs has a major snow storm for us at hour 240, the ggem is sticking to the weaker further north solution around day 8, and now the euro op has that big coastal day 9. Needless to say model mayhem. Probably won't get a consensus for next weekend for a couple days yet. That 6z GFS was a thing of beauty. Difference from the 0z is that the storm before it didn't hang around the GLs which I think is what allows the big one to come farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 12z GFS OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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