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Let's Talk Winter


Steve

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I just wanted to add something positive... As far as my historical look at very warm Decembers and the following months, the upcoming pattern change, if it has any real staying power, looks like one of the more significant reversals we've seen, even if the cold is more on the normal to slightly below normal variety.  And this December will almost certainly end as the warmest on record, beating the 126 year old record. 

 

BTW, if anyone is really worried about the perpetual dry look on the models once the pattern does change, that is very unlikely.  Historically, it just doesn't happen.  Even if the main storm track is suppressed, if it is cold, sooner or later we'll get something, whether it be clippers or whatever.  In Ohio, the reason for a lack of snow is almost always because it is too warm, not because there is a total lack of moisture.

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I just wanted to add something positive... As far as my historical look at very warm Decembers and the following months, the upcoming pattern change, if it has any real staying power, looks like one of the more significant reversals we've seen, even if the cold is more on the normal to slightly below normal variety.  And this December will almost certainly end as the warmest on record, beating the 126 year old record. 

 

BTW, if anyone is really worried about the perpetual dry look on the models once the pattern does change, that is very unlikely.  Historically, it just doesn't happen.  Even if the main storm track is suppressed, if it is cold, sooner or later we'll get something, whether it be clippers or whatever.  In Ohio, the reason for a lack of snow is almost always because it is too warm, not because there is a total lack of moisture.

:clap:

 

Drier than normal is a certain possibility, in fact likely in a colder pattern. But bone dry? Not happening.

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I feel the Ohio crew on the melt down. Current snow total stands at 1.8" on the year, and that doesn't look to change anytime soon. And the icing on the cake is 34 degrees under heavy bands of rain and wind. Just a slap in the face.

 

well there is some truth to misery loves company, or at least finds comfort in company.   Other than the fluke snow storm for the chi-det crowd in Nov, we're all pretty much floating in the same POS boat. lol.    

 

I figure we might as well start knocking down futility records as they come to us.  As stated above, next one up is latest measurable snow, Jan 2nd.  Should be easy

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well there is some truth to misery loves company, or at least finds comfort in company. Other than the fluke snow storm for the chi-det crowd in Nov, we're all pretty much floating in the same POS boat. lol.

I figure we might as well start knocking down futility records as they come to us. As stated above, next one up is latest measurable snow, Jan 2nd. Should be easy

I'm all for futility at this point. Hey if it's worth anything, strong-super ninos tend to be in the very dry side during winter, and here we are staring down the barrel of the wettest December on record, from 1967.

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I'm all for futility at this point. Hey if it's worth anything, strong-super ninos tend to be in the very dry side during winter, and here we are staring down the barrel of the wettest December on record, from 1967.

 

I hate to sound optimistic because it always comes back to wack me in the head, but I do think we have about 10 more days of zzzzz and then things could really get interesting....a lot of model support for this.   We should at least have things to track, I bet our first major tracking event might be one that we are rooting for wagons north  :lol:

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I didn't see much happening to more toward the last 3rd of the month. No surprise. Eventually the futility has to end. Will be nearing a record for not obtaining your first inch of snow.

Well, I doomed us when I changed my avatar.

 

Last third of the month you say? I dunno, perhaps a few clippers will squeak in.

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Actually snowed a little in the Dayton area again, officially our third "T" recording of snow so far this season.  There was enough to whiten up tops of cars and some roofs. The no measurable snow streak continues IMBY.

Yep same here for today. Did you not get much of anything from the burst of snow on the evening of December 2? Got about 1/4" here from that.

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this morning the ground was starting to dust up and I was hoping we wouldn't break trace....we didn't. Might as well break the record latest measurable.... then have a 180 turn around....that would be kind of cool actually

We just had drizzle here. I would have been upset if we recorded something. It wld b cool to break that record than hopefully...........
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I think the signal is there for our first trackable event.   Whether it tracks to us, under us, or over us is the question.

No doubt. The 12z GFS was interesting. The main storm gets sub 1000mb and yet doesn't cut more north and then an ULL develops in KY giving us our snow. Not sure how the main did cut more north but it is still way out and will change.

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