buckeye Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Yep, just saw that. Salt in the wound......... And then the 00z runs came in and that's what I get for going even slightly glass half-filled by mentioning the if's and but's on yesterday's gfs. Obviously there's now not a chance in hell we see a flake of snow from any one of these storms over the rest of December. Yesterday there seemed to be a slight spark of hope that a change might be showing up in the LR, but looping thru everything this morning, (save the usual fantasy cold high sliding in at day 12 on the gfs), I suspect January is starting to fall apart too . The CFS2 is holding steadfast to a warmer than normal Jan AND Feb. Just looking really ugly as far as the eye can see.... maybe a fluke somewhere in there....but with our luck it'll be the first week in April lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 And then the 00z runs came in and that's what I get for going even slightly glass half-filled by mentioning the if's and but's on yesterday's gfs. Obviously there's now not a chance in hell we see a flake of snow from any one of these storms over the rest of December. Yesterday there seemed to be a slight spark of hope that a change might be showing up in the LR, but looping thru everything this morning, (save the usual fantasy cold high sliding in at day 12 on the gfs), I suspect January is starting to fall apart too . The CFS2 is holding steadfast to a warmer than normal Jan AND Feb. Just looking really ugly as far as the eye can see.... maybe a fluke somewhere in there....but with our luck it'll be the first week in April lol. I'm sure you will get snow before April lol (though I'm sure you were being facetious with that comment). Winter officially starts tmrw night. The CFS does not have much company in its warm to torch Jan/Feb. From what I've been reading in NE forum, things are on track. Sensible weather pattern change has been keyed at mid January for a while. Doesn't mean there will be no snow before mid January (there will) nor does it mean it will be nonstop winter from late Jan thru February (it probably won't). But clearly there are changes in ensembles at the turn of the new year. Before you get a good patten you usually must get a better-than-its-been pattern. So I do disagree about ugly as far as the eye can see. January 15th or so is my key. If we are still in a pattern of dominant 40s with some 50s and a one or two day cool down to normal, with no change in sight, I will officially be worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I'm sure you will get snow before April lol (though I'm sure you were being facetious with that comment). Winter officially starts tmrw night. The CFS does not have much company in its warm to torch Jan/Feb. From what I've been reading in NE forum, things are on track. Sensible weather pattern change has been keyed at mid January for a while. Doesn't mean there will be no snow before mid January (there will) nor does it mean it will be nonstop winter from late Jan thru February (it probably won't). But clearly there are changes in ensembles at the turn of the new year. Before you get a good patten you usually must get a better-than-its-been pattern. So I do disagree about ugly as far as the eye can see. January 15th or so is my key. If we are still in a pattern of dominant 40s with some 50s and a one or two day cool down to normal, with no change in sight, I will officially be worried. I find pessimism with weather is much easier....you'll never be disappointed. So far reality blows though. It looks very likely that we will go thru the first week of January without a measurable snow yet. Save the fluke november snow, you guys wouldn't be that far behind us in futility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I find pessimism with weather is much easier....you'll never be disappointed. So far reality blows though. It looks very likely that we will go thru the first week of January without a measurable snow yet. Save the fluke november snow, you guys wouldn't be that far behind us in futility. Let's get that pic with the dog on the map posted. Anything to turn the tide! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I find pessimism with weather is much easier....you'll never be disappointed. So far reality blows though. It looks very likely that we will go thru the first week of January without a measurable snow yet. Save the fluke november snow, you guys wouldn't be that far behind us in futility. Obviously, but I hate using the word "fluke" to describe one of the most scenic snows Ive ever seen. It was a nice storm in a crappy pattern. Ironically, you give us a couple more of those type of storms mixed in with torch conditions, than that is supposedly what quite a handful on these boards have been pining for for years through recent brutal winters (though I still call bs on that). I suppose it could be a little different here since we are decently further north than you (perhaps latitude matters more in nino?) but I can guarantee you that it will get "better" than it has been the last few weeks. Absolutely guarantee. That IS reality. Sometimes a simply "mild" pattern can be snowstorm heaven, and a cold pattern comes it could be cold and dry. The possibilities are endless. Get me out of a +10 to +20F pattern and replace it with anything from a -5F to +5F pattern and Im ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I find pessimism with weather is much easier....you'll never be disappointed. So far reality blows though. It looks very likely that we will go thru the first week of January without a measurable snow yet. Save the fluke november snow, you guys wouldn't be that far behind us in futility. The great thing about pessimism is that you re frequently pleasantly surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Let's get that pic with the dog on the map posted. Anything to turn the tide! weatha! If we get snow this year, you'll be the first I send a "pic from the dumping station" to! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 The great thing about pessimism is that you re frequently pleasantly surprised. true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 weatha! If we get snow this year, you'll be the first I send a "pic from the dumping station" to!I give 20% chance of seeing measurable snow the rest of this year (10 days) and a 100% chance of seeing measurable snow this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I give 20% chance of seeing measurable snow the rest of this year (10 days) and a 100% chance of seeing measurable snow this winter gotta agree with the 100% of measurable at some point. Although if we make it through mid Feb without measurable I'll be rooting to go all the way and achieve what would be an incredible record of a zero snow winter. Would be kind of cool actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 oh what the hell, I'll be the first. Euro has OV's first threat of the season day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 oh what the hell, I'll be the first. Euro has OV's first threat of the season day 10. Does look promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 oh what the hell, I'll be the first. Euro has OV's first threat of the season day 10. C'mon man, it's day 10. LOL. U know better than that. I know, I know, at least it is something. Well it ain't nothing until it IS something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 C'mon man, it's day 10. LOL. U know better than that. I know, I know, at least it is something. Well it ain't nothing until it IS something! what I should have said, or emphasized, is it's the first euro 10 day threat for us this season. Obviously there's a huge difference between that and the first LEGITIMATE threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 There's been good agreement on a brief cool down to start January for a while...maybe we can time a storm right. I'm just hoping for some flakes in the air. Buckeye's futility record hunt be damned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 There's been good agreement on a brief cool down to start January for a while...maybe we can time a storm right. I'm just hoping for some flakes in the air. Buckeye's futility record hunt be damned ok seriously, wouldn't you rather have an all time record zero measurable snowfall winter than end up with a forgettable 7" or something like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 ok seriously, wouldn't you rather have an all time record zero measurable snowfall winter than end up with a forgettable 7" or something like that? OK, if I had to choose between like 1 or 2" and an all time record zero measurable, I'd take the record. The 7" could come in one storm which I'd take, I like snow too much to turn that down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 what I should have said, or emphasized, is it's the first euro 10 day threat for us this season. Obviously there's a huge difference between that and the first LEGITIMATE threat. LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 ok seriously, wouldn't you rather have an all time record zero measurable snowfall winter than end up with a forgettable 7" or something like that? This.....but I cannot imagine that EVER happening especially the way CMH records snowfall. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 This.....but I cannot imagine that EVER happening especially the way CMH records snowfall. LOL good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 The great thing about pessimism is that you re frequently pleasantly surprised. ^^^Truer words have never been spoken... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 0z GFS still shows nothing but the 0z GGEM is starting to jump on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 0z GFS still shows nothing but the 0z GGEM is starting to jump on board. We picked up a glimmer of hope from the GGEM, but even it is marginal with little snow. We totally lost the euro. Hell, I even looked at the euro ens and out of 51 members, only 1 or 2 had measurable snow for us days 10-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Check out Weatherbell's daily update today....Bastardi has lost his mind. LOL Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all my Ohio weather friends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 12z GFS is squashed and 12z GGEM still trying to get something going. BSR supports an apps runner so it might take getting the current storm and the post Christmas storm out of the way until ly start seeing something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 6 days out I'm not really hopefull lol. But sure would put my plow trucks too work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 6 days out I'm not really hopefull lol. But sure would put my plow trucks too work. Which model is this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 6 days out I'm not really hopefull lol. But sure would put my plow trucks too work. I assume that's the 27-28 storm in which case that total is more sleet/freezing rain than snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I assume that's the 27-28 storm in which case that total is more sleet/freezing rain than snow.. Correct I see mixing taken a bite out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Which model is this?GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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