buckeye Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Cohen going with a cold winter forecast for the eastern OV. Throw some moisture in the mix and we are in business. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/11/24/innovating-forecaster-highlights-potential-for-very-snowy-winter-in-mid-atlantic-d-c/ I heard his forecast last winter was a train wreck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 I heard his forecast last winter was a train wreck. He got it right, but for the wrong reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 He got it right, but for the wrong reason so it had nothing to do with acorn production after all? Cohan is a media sensation. He has to make this forecast or he is a liar. he's not a met? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Cohan is a media sensation. He has to make this forecast or he is a liar. The media doesn't care about credibility. They sensationalize stuff whenever they can, whether it's to get page views or to support a political agenda. The media isn't gonna attack him for being wrong, if he is again... if there's another year after this that features well above average Siberian snowfall, he'll be back in the media again. so it had nothing to do with acorn production after all? he's not a met? I heard it had something to do with predicting whether this groundhog sees its shadow And yeah he has a doctorate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 I heard his forecast last winter was a train wreck. I believe it was with regards to the state of the AO. The story indicates he has a 75% percent accuracy rate with his winter forecasts. Obviously his forecast would be a best case scenario for our area but seems to against the general thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 I believe it was with regards to the state of the AO. The story indicates he has a 75% percent accuracy rate with his winter forecasts. Obviously his forecast would be a best case scenario for our area but seems to against the general thinking. I guess we'll see. Just like sex sells in advertisement, cold and snow sells in forecasting. My totally non-scientific guess for this winter: For CMH area, +2 all 3 months averaged together and around 20" of snow. Below normal snowfall but I think it could come in 1 or 2 memorable storms vs. a bunch of nickle and dimes. I'll also throw in a legit icestorm this winter as well. Lots of periods of zzzzzzzz as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Looks like it's gonna be quiet around here for a while. Enjoy the few flakes we get tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Looks like it's gonna be quiet around here for a while. Enjoy the few flakes we get tonight. yep. About the best thing I could find scanning thru long term is the models agreeing on a sharper/deeper trough in the middle of the country towards day 10. It's too far west for us to enjoy anything but strong, warm flow out of the south....but....maybe beyond that it will transfer east and stay long enough for something....but that looks very doubtful. I'm not a big believer in punting an entire month, but if I were, this would be about as good as a month to punt as you can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 I'm not a big believer in punting an entire month, but if I were, this would be about as good as a month to punt as you can get. Where's Ganahl and his Polar Vortex when you need him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 yep. About the best thing I could find scanning thru long term is the models agreeing on a sharper/deeper trough in the middle of the country towards day 10. It's too far west for us to enjoy anything but strong, warm flow out of the south....but....maybe beyond that it will transfer east and stay long enough for something....but that looks very doubtful. I'm not a big believer in punting an entire month, but if I were, this would be about as good as a month to punt as you can get. I typically wouldnt either, but I think this might be a good one to punt! The outlier to the pattern can always occur...But the odds don't look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Wouldn't hurt to be a little more north and west but i'd still take this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Wouldn't hurt to be a little more north and west but i'd still take this. yea, if that happened in a normal dead of winter period, that would be a blizzard for WV, a snowstorm for southeast OH, and we'd probably have a light accum or snowshowers. Give me a 983 over Clarksburg, WV.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 I have neighbors still cutting their lawns!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 I hope everyone enjoyed their freezing fog this morning. Have to think we'll be socked in here again later tonight in a river valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 Few annoying mini-troughs this week to provide us with imperfect weather it seems....These may actually help boost our positive temperature anomaly for the week as overnight clouds will keep things warm on some nights and we'll easily be above normal each afternoon since the requirement for that is >45~ degrees down here in Cincy.Obviously the big-daddy potential is there around the 12th-14th which is to be expected just looking at the ensembles. You have a massive west trough and east ridge with wide southwest flow across the nation's mid-section. It could always cut off slightly or not quite phase right and miss max potential, but still should be a decent system at the minimum. Heavy rain maker here, but any high wind or severe potential will depend on details that obviously can't be determined at this range.It does appear that one of our brief cold episodes will arrive behind that system. The strength and duration will be dependent on how that system evolves, but I'd expect some below normal temps around the 15-18th. But the western trough is going to re-load thanks to the +EPO and ripping Pacific jet, so we'll snap back to the status quo right after that. Not looking good for Christmas snow, but that is far enough out that some tiny hope can be held on to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 I hope everyone enjoyed their freezing fog this morning. Have to think we'll be socked in here again later tonight in a river valley. I drove to Columbus yesterday morning and that was some of the thickest fog I've ever seen at times going up there. And I work at LUK lol When I came back last night between 9p-11p, it was already very dense again between Wilmington and northern Cincinnati. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 well I'm going to pour some water to half fill. I was browsing last winter's version of this thread and was reminded of how miserable December last year was. We were ready to throw in the towel last winter at this time and even by xmas. That turned, and we ended up above normal snowfall. Granted we also had the unusual November snows last fall to help unlike this year.... ...but there's my optimistic post for the month...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted December 9, 2015 Author Share Posted December 9, 2015 I should change this thread to..Let;s talk about blahhhhhhh!! Nothing to even talk about for weeks to come!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 I should change this thread to..Let;s talk about blahhhhhhh!! Nothing to even talk about for weeks to come!! Agreed. Hoping January turns things around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 well I'm going to pour some water to half fill. I was browsing last winter's version of this thread and was reminded of how miserable December last year was. We were ready to throw in the towel last winter at this time and even by xmas. That turned, and we ended up above normal snowfall. Granted we also had the unusual November snows last fall to help unlike this year.... ...but there's my optimistic post for the month...lol. As long as we get a decent few week stretch later in winter I'll be happy, even if we don't quite make it up to average seasonal snow. Although granted here average isn't even 20" so a decent few weeks could get us that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Lima is on pace for 8-9 straight days of 50+ weather. Gotta be close to a modern record in December. Even 2007 didn't have that and I doubt the departures are as high this month as that one. My Wunderground forecast for back home has 3 days in a row of mid-60's highs. Friday: 61 high/57 low (estimated departure of +24.5) Saturday: 66 high/55 low (estimated departure of +26) Sunday: 67 high/54 low (estimated departure of +26) That'll help spike the monthly departure a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 The 18-20 timeframe could be interesting for us Ohioans. 0z GFS looks like the 12z GGEM showed at the end of its run and maybe what the 12z Euro was about to show at the end of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I'm flying back from school on the 19th into Dayton. Can this storm move back two days so Snow falls while I'm there? In all seriousness, it will be nice to see some snow, I need a break from the 60-70 degree December days in Norman lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 0z GGEM was looking good initially but just falls apart at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Two weeks out from Christmas Eve and I see no end in sight for this torch. At this rate Santa will be needing to install A/C in his sleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Two weeks out from Christmas Eve and I see no end in sight for this torch. At this rate Santa will be needing to install A/C in his sleigh. The end of the ridge is quite visible on models. I don't see any snow for Newark, OH though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 The end of the ridge is quite visible on models. I don't see any snow for Newark, OH though.Snow chances for a particular location are always up in the air, but if this torch is unabated by Christmas, then every model is wrong. There is clearly an end in sight. What it produces remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted December 10, 2015 Author Share Posted December 10, 2015 Nothing else to talk about...so here ya go!! http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/data/forecast/grads/gfs/panel2/plt35.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 12z GFS for the 18th storm came in faster and with less cold in place so very little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 12z GFS for the 18th storm came in faster and with less cold in place so very little snow. 12z Euro faster too. Like the low placement but borderline 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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