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Let's Talk Winter


Steve

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Don't worry, I think our 'big dog' will come. A lot of possibilities ahead ....

 

two glimmers of hope.  First is the clipper that is forecasted to go through the great lakes around day 6-7.  Every one of those puppies has trended dramatically south.   Second is a follow up larger storm being modeled anywhere from the east coast to the great lakes around day 10.

 

They are both glimmers, as in a candle on a foggy night 10 miles away....and quite frankly probably our last, thankfully.   These storms are becoming torture as long as this winter refuses to end on a large scale.

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GFS/NAM not as robust with the backside snows as yesterday. A general 2" across most of Ohio. Still painting some 6" total around Cleveland, due to lake enhancement. Barring an extreme, extended cold snap, crazy to think that Erie will have never completely frozen over this year. Not even close. I don't track the stats closely, but only the western basin became fully frozen.

 

The GFS longrange is looking warmer too. No freeze that it was showing late last week/early weekend. Theme of the winter I guess. A few days with highs in the 30s, very doable, then back pushing 50 by Sunday before the 2/29 storm.

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euro is a train wreck for winter wx in our area for the next 10 days.   Peeking into the storm thread it looks like that storm might be making last minutes bumps nw, which means our backlash chances dwindle even more.  Amazing that a week ago we were trying to coax this thing nw to get us in on some of it, and now it's cutting through Dayton.    After that, the next two threats go well north of us and we rain with cool frontal passages.

 

I'm officially cutting myself free from the 2015/16 winter-weenie mode.  We are at the end of a winter that never really started.  I'll assume everything from here on out is building to spring :sun: , and that's how I'll move forward with my work schedule, as well as with my weenie model watching..  Finally I can put this disaster of a winter behind me.   

 

It's not so much about only getting 13 and some odd inches....it's the constant near misses and the slop storms that, on paper, should have been good storms.   This was the winter of what ifs.  I've come to a point where if I see one more modeled southern stream storm with a piggy back junk low over the great lakes I might go postal. :gun_bandana:    I'd rather have a '97-98 or 11'-12, they sucked but at least they didn't tease.  You pretty much always knew where you stood those winters.

 

...and yea, I know....March can still be a good snow month...whatever....talk to me when we have warning headlines, I'm done following 10 day model guidance for the season.   Onto severe season.   JB says warm spring, hot dry summer, minimal severe for the midwest...meh that's ok.   95 and dry sounds like fricken heaven right now.   

 

Doesn't Steve also do a thread on severe/spring? :D

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I always look forward to this thread in the fall.

 

Each and every year I learn more, and enjoy reading all the detailed thoughts from those who devote a lot of time (personal and professional) to this.

 

But now I'm on to severe weather and the knowledge I can glean from that thread.

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euro is a train wreck for winter wx in our area for the next 10 days.   Peeking into the storm thread it looks like that storm might be making last minutes bumps nw, which means our backlash chances dwindle even more.  Amazing that a week ago we were trying to coax this thing nw to get us in on some of it, and now it's cutting through Dayton.    After that, the next two threats go well north of us and we rain with cool frontal passages.

 

 

And just a week ago we were hoping for that last minute NW shift to get the heaviest axis of snow through I-71, with many of the hi-res models indicating that I-71 would be in the 6-8"+ range. Of course those models never materialized and most of us were whiffed by a storm to the east. What I'm really interested in seeing is how NW this storm goes tomorrow. It'll be interesting if those far NW models prove fruitful for Chicago. It really is threading a needle to get a good synoptic hit for Ohio. 

 

CLE is sitting at about 26" of snow the past 365 days, which is one of the least snowiest stretches at the airport in some 75 years. The I-71 corridor has had a disaster of snow season for sure. I'm optimistic for some back side snow with the upcoming system, but after that I'm ready to close the books on this winter. 

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Some major winter storm, warm front just went through, wind is now out of the south gusting over 30MPH, temps mid 50s with +RN & TStorms! Sun was even out some over the lunch hour. Low must be very near Dayton now as the pressure has dropped to 29.15, been awhile since it's been that low.

The temp gradient is crazy. I'm still in the 30's with cold rain..
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Don't know where it came from as the liquid equivalents don't support it, but got close to 2" overnight here in SW Greene Co. on elevated surfaces. Hard to measure as it is real lumpy, must have been some huge flakes at one point, nothing on the roads though as temps stayed just above freezing all night.

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Don't know where it came from as the liquid equivalents don't support it, but got close to 2" overnight here in SW Greene Co. on elevated surfaces. Hard to measure as it is real lumpy, must have been some huge flakes at one point, nothing on the roads though as temps stayed just above freezing all night.

Just about the same here. I measured just under 1.5". It was lighter than I expected, but was still very wet at the same time. Roads were normal here as well.

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Not sure about the rest of you guys...but I have had about 80 model inches of snow and virga this year!!

 

Seems a fitting end that what looks to be the last snow event of the winter is mostly virga, and the radar is completely falling apart otherwise. 

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