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Let's Talk Winter


Steve

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lol...euro does the southeast/weak/warm 12z shift.     Dealing with 2 pieces coming out.  The difference between the 00z and the 12z is on the 00z the first one is weak and the second one blows up,   On the 12z they are closer together and the second one can't strengthen.

 

Like I said, if this two piece deal sticks, it becomes nothing more than a cluster with some snow in the mountains.   We need either one consolidated piece or for the first piece to slip out and allow the second to amp.

 

*although the ukie would be too much of good thing

And so holds the pondo rule! Guess you won't be needing me to start that thread after all. 

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Geeze, 12z GFS has a monster low plowing up into Alaska about 240hour'ish and out, dislodging a massive artic high to plunge down into the US with the coldest air mass of the winter thru the first week of March for the eastern half of the country!

I noticed that also. I'm on a roll for birthday storms lol..
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slp day 6.5.... huge spread but two camps seem to be setting up, the coastal and the western slopes of the apps.   The mean snowfall is not that impressive, probably due to those lows in the far west camp which of course would cause precip type issues.

 

I'd be surprised if the euro doesn't come back west at 00z.

 

post-622-0-20114600-1455827305_thumb.jpg

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One thing that is universal(as individual ensembles show): If this is gonna rock, it is gonna rock in the OV. The trough axis and ridge development along W.Canada is perfect. That is why the progressive sheared out crap the GFS/ECMWF show now make sense if it ends up being a turd. But if it doesn't....................... :cory:

 

there's actually a legit amount of individual eps members that are too far nw with the snow axis for CMH....hitting IN thru nw OH into se MI.   So yea, if this 'rocks', it could easily suck for the southeastern half of OH too.   Threading the needle, pick your poison...so what else is new.

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Quite a rollercoaster ride!

 

It should be an interesting weekend tracking models.

 

Here's my optimistic post:

 

-the euro OP was a kick in the nuts, but now it appears it's an outlier among the euro suite with that southeast solution.  Ensembles and the para are much better.

 

-ukie is on it's way to being too far nw and amped.  I saw a map posted in the NE forum that showed the uk extrapolated beyond 144 and it takes the low to Zanesville.  But at least we have the nw option being shown.

 

-Gfs is in lala cluster fck land but how many times have we seen it do this and then suddenly find an 'organized storm'.   And the 18z gefs is significantly nw of the 18z.   There should be some good indivdual members.

 

-ggem has the storm, just needs a little more amperage and latitude....which wouldn't be unusual to see it correct to.

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Here's my optimistic post:

-the euro OP was a kick in the nuts, but now it appears it's an outlier among the euro suite with that southeast solution. Ensembles and the para are much better.

-ukie is on it's way to being too far nw and amped. I saw a map posted in the NE forum that showed the uk extrapolated beyond 144 and it takes the low to Zanesville. But at least we have the nw option being shown.

-Gfs is in lala cluster fck land but how many times have we seen it do this and then suddenly find an 'organized storm'. And the 18z gefs is significantly nw of the 18z. There should be some good indivdual members.

-ggem has the storm, just needs a little more amperage and latitude....which wouldn't be unusual to see it correct to.

The optimistic Buck posts...why I keep coming back. Thx!
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Crazy. I thought I remember hearing how hard it was to get a good phased storm in an el nino year. You end up w/ pieces of $h1t like this.

 

yup, like I said we either get a chopped up system and get a near miss east or we go big and sweat the track.   Pick your poison.  Personally I'd choose the latter.   At least we'll have a chance.  If it comes out in pieces we have virtually no chance.

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CMC is slowly coming around on a phase solution. Not perfect, but better than prior runs.

 

Ukie goes NOLA to Lexington KY to Toronto. Staying nearly consistent with the track. Depending on how quickly the cold can wrap in, could go either way for CMH

 

ukie would be a track of a very strong low right over us or just slightly east.   We haven't seen that scenario in a very long time, but when it does happen, it usually is mostly heavy rain with a decent changeover depending on how fast or slow it moves and how quickly it deepens.   That being said, I think it's phasing that piece coming out of the northern branch right about the time it starts to life north from the gulf....hence the almost due north track and powerhouse storm.  Pretty much alone right now.  But still plausible I guess.

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