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Let's Talk Winter


Steve

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the good news is

the ggem, ukie (extrapolated), and the gfs have all gone to the app runner track at 12z. The other good news is the gfs never brought precip far enough west on it's runs leading up to the last storm to give central Ohio anything. So the fact that it now has a large part of Ohio getting a nice hit at this range, might be a good thing.

I'll still remain cautiously pessimistic until at least the weekend :rambo:

How were the 00z euro ensembles?

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I don't mean to sound pessimistic, no doubt the chances are there.   The euro is much less sharp with the trough vs. the 00z, which is why it strings out the energy until it gets to the MA coast.   Would like to see a stronger high to the north to feed in colder air too.   Those are things that can definitely trend differently in future runs.   

Who could blame you, right, especially this winter?

 

You brought me back to planet earth. I have no idea why I would ever think this one would line in our favor. I hate this hobby! 

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I can't believe you guys want to give this winter another benefit of the doubt after this most recent disaster. I will say with a 99.99% certainty that, even if there another event, it will be rain, a miss or 1-2" at most. Take it to the bank. It's not going to happen.

I couldn't agree more! See my last post.
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I'd say a few more 12z EPS members are favorable for OH than 0z, but there's still a ton of spread. There looks to be some confluence over New England ahead of this storm so we should have some sort of high to our north, although maybe not the strongest ever. That's already better than last storm. Trick will be getting an early enough phase to turn the trough negatively tilted before getting to the Apps.

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I can't believe you guys want to give this winter another benefit of the doubt after this most recent disaster. I will say with a 99.99% certainty that, even if there another event, it will be rain, a miss or 1-2" at most.  Take it to the bank.  It's not going to happen.

 

:weenie: good ole fashioned weenie reverse psychology :weenie: .   Well done sir....well done indeed! ;)

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0z Ukie at the end of the run has the look of a big storm in the making.

 

team euro/ukie vs. team gfs/ggem.    The latter has no semblance of a system coming out of the sw.    Gfs took until about 120 hours out before it found the storm with the last one too.

 

Also, it's interesting that the euro came back nw again at 00z.....   wonder if it goes southeast again at 12z.    

 

All you can take away from this is that there's still a possible 'threat' for something.

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team euro/ukie vs. team gfs/ggem.    The latter has no semblance of a system coming out of the sw.    Gfs took until about 120 hours out before it found the storm with the last one too.

 

Also, it's interesting that the euro came back nw again at 00z.....   wonder if it goes southeast again at 12z.    

 

All you can take away from this is that there's still a possible 'threat' for something.

Pondo rule in effect.

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GFS is a less impressive version of the 0z run, strung out and looks like a mess. CMC is a coast hugger, gives the Apps all the snow. UKMET has a 992mb in Middle Tennessee. Definitely like what I'm seeing with Ukie.

 

As buckeye said, it's looking like another UK/Euro vs. GFS/CMC battle.

Pondo rule in effect...the 12Z Euro will be south & east of the 0z, GUARANTEED!!!!!!!

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Pondo rule in effect...the 12Z Euro will be south & east of the 0z, GUARANTEED!!!!!!!

 

meanwhile back at the ukie.  

 

Models all over the place.   I'm thinking one of two camps.  It either stays an unorganized cluster which slides it southeast and warm, or it turns into something much bigger...one where we might be sweating precip issues.

post-622-0-05553400-1455816487_thumb.jpg

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meanwhile back at the ukie.  

 

Models all over the place.   I'm thinking one of two camps.  It either stays an unorganized cluster which slides it southeast and warm, or it turns into something much bigger...one where we might be sweating precip issues.

 

Yeah, that's too much of a good thing. Could even see temp issues up here beyond 144.

 

If the 12z EURO is still with the UKIE on the amped side of things, one of you guys should start a thread for this.

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Yeah, that's too much of a good thing. Could even see temp issues up here beyond 144.

 

If the 12z EURO is still with the UKIE on the amped side of things, one of you guys should start a thread for this.

 

pondo, pick up the white courtesy phone.

 

 

But yes, we need more of the northern branch to phase into that trough or it's major temp issues.  

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lol...euro does the southeast/weak/warm 12z shift.     Dealing with 2 pieces coming out.  The difference between the 00z and the 12z is on the 00z the first one is weak and the second one blows up,   On the 12z they are closer together and the second one can't strengthen.

 

Like I said, if this two piece deal sticks, it becomes nothing more than a cluster with some snow in the mountains.   We need either one consolidated piece or for the first piece to slip out and allow the second to amp.

 

*although the ukie would be too much of good thing

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