Steve Posted October 4, 2015 Author Share Posted October 4, 2015 Nasty rain and a biting wind last night and today..Some wind chills in the upper 30's!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Nasty rain and a biting wind last night and today..Some wind chills in the upper 30's!! Friday night (the 2nd), sat through my son's H.S. football game. Horizontal rain, umbrellas turning inside out and it felt like it was in the 30's. Brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Friday night (the 2nd), sat through my son's H.S. football game. Horizontal rain, umbrellas turning inside out and it felt like it was in the 30's. Brutal.Crazy! This wk back in mid/upper 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Crazy! This wk back in mid/upper 70s. pondo's back! every fall I hold my breath until 2 things occur: 1.) Steve creates the official "Let's talk winter thread" .....and..... 2.) pondo makes his first post of the season in it! I can exhale. It's offically the OV wxweenie winter kick-off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 pondo's back! every fall I hold my breath until 2 things occur: 1.) Steve creates the official "Let's talk winter thread" .....and..... 2.) pondo makes his first post of the season in it! I can exhale. It's offically the OV wxweenie winter kick-off LMFAO! Let the games begin. My 2 pennies is that we will NOT have the harsh cold of the last 2 years BUT rather wild swings in temps w/ MAYBE a shot at a couple of big storms. Bye for now...On a side note, Buck, you hiring? I got laid off & need a job!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 LMFAO! Let the games begin. My 2 pennies is that we will NOT have the harsh cold of the last 2 years BUT rather wild swings in temps w/ MAYBE a shot at a couple of big storms. Bye for now... On a side note, Buck, you hiring? I got laid off & need a job!!! ha! I doubt I can afford you. But seriously, sorry to hear that, hang in there. If nothing else let's make this the season when we finally get all us ohio guys together for a beer. Hell I think there's like 5 of us that post here regularly and live within a 25 mile radius and yet we've never met in person. Hell pondo, you literally live down the road and I think Jaypsu use to live a couple blocks over from me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 ha! I doubt I can afford you. But seriously, sorry to hear that, hang in there. If nothing else let's make this the season when we finally get all us ohio guys together for a beer. Hell I think there's like 5 of us that post here regularly and live within a 25 mile radius and yet we've never met in person. Hell pondo, you literally live down the road and I think Jaypsu use to live a couple blocks over from me lol.If you guys ever got together while I'm here in Athens I'd be game assuming I'm not working when you do it...it's a bit of a drive but not too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 ha! I doubt I can afford you. But seriously, sorry to hear that, hang in there. If nothing else let's make this the season when we finally get all us ohio guys together for a beer. Hell I think there's like 5 of us that post here regularly and live within a 25 mile radius and yet we've never met in person. Hell pondo, you literally live down the road and I think Jaypsu use to live a couple blocks over from me lol. We should have a get together. My wife actually teaches at St. Paul's in Westerville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monisa18 Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 Looks like we may have a more severe winter then we thought... http://kfor.com/2015/10/09/nasa-expert-el-nino-is-too-big-to-fail/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted October 11, 2015 Author Share Posted October 11, 2015 I don't drink..but i would do a mean Mt. Dew and some wings!! LOL ..I am game for a meet and eat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47046-ohio-posters-get-together-lets-do-it/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 18z GFS has a classic apps runner around day 9-10. If only it was a couple months from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Wow, quite quiet in here! My post may summarize why lol Looking at the data this afternoon, I believe we will continue to average above normal for at least the next 10-15 days (through November 20th at least). While we moderate (seasonal adjustment towards winter) and there are some "cool shots" coming, there is no significantly below average outbreaks of cold air on the horizon. Our "big cool downs" coming are only taking us from extremely above normal to very slightly below normal.The MJO is in phase 3 right now and is forecast to die. It may break out into phase 1 looking beyond 10 days, but not a ton of model support for that yet. The SOI continues to run high against its moving 30 day mean, so no major eastern trough-y influence from either the MJO or SOI.The AO, NAO, and EPO are all forecast to remain positive. The GFS ensemble has a few members taking the NAO lower, but the mean barely gets below 0 by the 17th. The Euro ensemble also supports the AO/NAO going from highly positive to neutral as well. The Euro ensemble actually starts to bounce it back up a tad after the 19th.The GFS ens and Euro ens are both in strong agreement that the EPO remains strongly positive for at least the next 10-12 days.With all this in mind, I agree with the ensemble packages showing we *average* above normal through at least the 20th. Again, a few cooler shots in between but nothing major. Remember that a shot of average temps is going to feel quite cold relative to what we've had lately.Going even farther out, some of the models try to pick up on a bit of cooling trend after the 20th. The CFS shows strongly negative temp departures for the 20th-30th. But then we return to a wildly warm pattern going into December. But we know how good the CFS is I suppose its not AS BAD on a sub-monthly timescale.Still time to look into trends for the end of the month....But barring the entire arctic circle relocating to the Ohio Valley, an above average temp November is a virtual lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Wow, quite quiet in here! My post may summarize why lol Looking at the data this afternoon, I believe we will continue to average above normal for at least the next 10-15 days (through November 20th at least). While we moderate (seasonal adjustment towards winter) and there are some "cool shots" coming, there is no significantly below average outbreaks of cold air on the horizon. Our "big cool downs" coming are only taking us from extremely above normal to very slightly below normal.The MJO is in phase 3 right now and is forecast to die. It may break out into phase 1 looking beyond 10 days, but not a ton of model support for that yet. The SOI continues to run high against its moving 30 day mean, so no major eastern trough-y influence from either the MJO or SOI. The AO, NAO, and EPO are all forecast to remain positive. The GFS ensemble has a few members taking the NAO lower, but the mean barely gets below 0 by the 17th. The Euro ensemble also supports the AO/NAO going from highly positive to neutral as well. The Euro ensemble actually starts to bounce it back up a tad after the 19th. The GFS ens and Euro ens are both in strong agreement that the EPO remains strongly positive for at least the next 10-12 days. With all this in mind, I agree with the ensemble packages showing we *average* above normal through at least the 20th. Again, a few cooler shots in between but nothing major. Remember that a shot of average temps is going to feel quite cold relative to what we've had lately. Going even farther out, some of the models try to pick up on a bit of cooling trend after the 20th. The CFS shows strongly negative temp departures for the 20th-30th. But then we return to a wildly warm pattern going into December. But we know how good the CFS is I suppose its not AS BAD on a sub-monthly timescale. Still time to look into trends for the end of the month....But barring the entire arctic circle relocating to the Ohio Valley, an above average temp November is a virtual lock. what a difference a year makes. This is a screen shot from last year's thread about this time. Models continued to hang on to that threat with one that followed it a week later. That ended up giving us our first winter storm warning and low temps nearing the single digits. This appears it might be the first November in the last 3 without a significant arctic outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Question is, should that be taken as a sign for the upcoming winter? Sent from my XT1060 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Question is, should that be taken as a sign for the upcoming winter? Sent from my XT1060 good question. The consensus seems to be since strong ninos are infamous for cold Novembers, and we are in a strong nino with a warm November, than this winter is in uncharted waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 good question. The consensus seems to be since strong ninos are infamous for cold Novembers, and we are in a strong nino with a warm November, than this winter is in uncharted waters.Very true. Although with such a small sample size its hard to make too many conclusions. Sent from my XT1060 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 good question. The consensus seems to be since strong ninos are infamous for cold Novembers, and we are in a strong nino with a warm November, than this winter is in uncharted waters. Buckeye, below is a link to something I posted back in October in the MA forum. I think the belief that ALL NINOs have cold Novies is false. I went to your NWS site and for some reason, it does not have the climate info ours does or I would have checked Nov temps at Columbus to see if you had AN temps in the same mod/strong NINOs we had AN temps. Anyway, if you can locate the info, you may want to check the years that I looked at for BWI. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45991-winter-2015-2016-speculation-and-discussion/?p=3733515 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 I think moreso than a warm November, the thing that has been more surprising is that, collectively, the Fall has been this mild. Relatively small sample size in mind, that is very unusual in strong Ninos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Cold Novembers have happened during strong el Ninos, but I think there has been far too much reliance on statistics by some people in this regard. The pattern we are in is most definitely canonical el Nino due to classic forcing. el Nino has been very stable. Apparently that wasn't the case in past strong el Ninos in November. This is a sign that we're already locked in for winter, imo. good question. The consensus seems to be since strong ninos are infamous for cold Novembers, and we are in a strong nino with a warm November, than this winter is in uncharted waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Cold Novembers have happened during strong el Ninos, but I think there has been far too much reliance on statistics by some people in this regard. The pattern we are in is most definitely canonical el Nino due to classic forcing. el Nino has been very stable. Apparently that wasn't the case in past strong el Ninos in November. This is a sign that we're already locked in for winter, imo. Exactly, I'm quite hesitant to go against Nino climo just because November turns out warm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 I think moreso than a warm November, the thing that has been more surprising is that, collectively, the Fall has been this mild. Relatively small sample size in mind, that is very unusual in strong Ninos. You are DEAD on. Its the FALL as a whole, not just November. Every month in a strong Nino Fall comes out as a colder than normal when you do a composite, but there ARE a few examples of warm Novembers in a strong Nino, as well as Octobers. There were NO examples - NONE - of a mild September in a strong Nino, and this September torched. Stats (for Detroit) in Strong Nino Falls Sep: Cold - 10, Normal - 1, Warm - 0 Oct: Cold - 6, Normal - 2, Warm - 3 Nov: Cold - 6, Normal - 3, Warm - 2 Regardless of temp depatures, there are plenty of examples all over this forum stating this year is uncharted waters. An interesting winter lies ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Buckeye, below is a link to something I posted back in October in the MA forum. I think the belief that ALL NINOs have cold Novies is false. I went to your NWS site and for some reason, it does not have the climate info ours does or I would have checked Nov temps at Columbus to see if you had AN temps in the same mod/strong NINOs we had AN temps. Anyway, if you can locate the info, you may want to check the years that I looked at for BWI. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45991-winter-2015-2016-speculation-and-discussion/?p=3733515 thanks mitch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 18z GFS with a weenie run for us Ohio peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Haha. East Indy west Ohio in a weenie band from the GFS. Swath of 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Gotta love it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 haven't watched Ganahl or the local weather in a long time... good lord, he's a few pounds shy of a TLC documentary . Hope for he and his family's sake he gets himself under control, he has a well publicized heart condition, approaching 400lbs can't be good for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 1 year ago today, 3-5" across Central Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 haven't watched Ganahl or the local weather in a long time... good lord, he's a few pounds shy of a TLC documentary . Hope for he and his family's sake he gets himself under control, he has a well publicized heart condition, approaching 400lbs can't be good for that. When u get a scare like he did last year & then continue to let yourself go like that, you have an issue & need professional help. Like you, I hope for his familiy's sake he gets it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Jym mentioned the Polar vortex on FB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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