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Let's Talk Winter


Steve

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And while we are on the Fantasy Friday theme....how's this for white (wet) dream? The 06Z GFS 384 hour total snow map. Southern Ohio the nation's snow capitol. I would bet we don't have enough to cover the grass. And before anyone complains about posting WXbell maps it was on Bastardi's twitter account.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CYM7sF6UoAEUHva.png

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And while we are on the Fantasy Friday theme....how's this for white (wet) dream? The 06Z GFS 384 hour total snow map. Southern Ohio the nation's snow capitol. I would bet we don't have enough to cover the grass. And before anyone complains about posting WXbell maps it was on Bastardi's twitter account.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CYM7sF6UoAEUHva.png

Now that is a true #FantasyFriday image!!

Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk

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REST OF TODAY...CLOUDY...MILD. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TONIGHT...SHOWERS...MILD. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN
100 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 120 BELOW IN THE
EVENING.

 

I hope everyone bundles up this evening, going to be mighty chilly.

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Bummed we missed a record by two days, but hey it looks nice.  Was a tad more than I expected actually!

 
A little concerned the NAM is going a bit bonkers (as usual) with forcing and it's QPF for Tuesday.  Although the NAM and GFS bufkit both reveal a brief period around 6AM Tuesday of decent negative omega values (strong lift) overlaid perfectly with a good size DGZ. [Looking at KCVG]  The NAM then takes off whereas the GFS does not.  But with the agreement at least for a brief period, a 1-2" forecast seems solid.  Possibly would hedge towards the lower side of that for now unless we see more model agreement on either the higher moisture content or strong forcing.  But keep in mind this is just a cold frontal passage, not a traditional clipper where the low passes by to our south. The low goes through Michigan so the fact that we are even looking at an inch out of this is awesome.  
 
Next weekend, there is actually remarkable agreement among the 12z GFS/GEM, 0z Euro operational & parallel for a low through NE KY.  This would yield rain changing to another sloppy 1-3" of snow.  Then you have the 12z Euro operational with the low way up to Indy :axe:  Para run isn't out yet on wx bell, so we'll see if it jumps as well.  
 
From a teleconnections stand point, a more southerly track is favored.  The AO and NAO are solidly negative and the PNA remains positive all well beyond the time period of this storm.  Granted a track up to Indy isn't exactly "cutting north" that hard, just a bit too much to help us.  Obviously the teleconnections aren't the end all, but I think we have a shot for something next weekend just looking at the overall pattern apart from the model mayhem which will continue for the next several days.
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Our first clipper of the season.

 

ILN might be under doing the amounts south of I-70.

 

I don't know, I'm not really liking this setup for us down here in Cincinnati.  Especially now that its in range of short-term high-res models.  It's almost just a FROPA.  A quick hitting burst of snow which may lay down a fast 1/2" to an inch.  Now the RAP is hinting at a second small area of snow down here near Cincy around 8/9am which could get us just over an inch.  

 

But the 4km NAM shows very little, the 12km NAM shows very little, the RAP shows an inch AT BEST, and the HRRR thru 7z looks unimpressive.  We have the GFS going a bit more high with QPF and the Euro operational with a thin meso-looking band between Cincy and Dayton.  However the new Euro parallel does not have nearly as high amounts and has a bit of band looking feature in NKY but only 1 to 1.5".  

 

It seems to me like there will be a band or two of slightly higher amounts, but I think I'm going 1" on my call with only very isolated amounts higher.  You guys near and north of 70 probably have a better shot at 2".  It may be hard to pinpoint where the band of >1" sets up down here.  The 18z NAM actually is in agreement with the Euro parallel that it may be NKY.

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I don't know, I'm not really liking this setup for us down here in Cincinnati.  Especially now that its in range of short-term high-res models.  It's almost just a FROPA.  A quick hitting burst of snow which may lay down a fast 1/2" to an inch.  Now the RAP is hinting at a second small area of snow down here near Cincy around 8/9am which could get us just over an inch.  

 

But the 4km NAM shows very little, the 12km NAM shows very little, the RAP shows an inch AT BEST, and the HRRR thru 7z looks unimpressive.  We have the GFS going a bit more high with QPF and the Euro operational with a thin meso-looking band between Cincy and Dayton.  However the new Euro parallel does not have nearly as high amounts and has a bit of band looking feature in NKY but only 1 to 1.5".  

 

It seems to me like there will be a band or two of slightly higher amounts, but I think I'm going 1" on my call with only very isolated amounts higher.  You guys near and north of 70 probably have a better shot at 2".  It may be hard to pinpoint where the band of >1" sets up down here.  The 18z NAM actually is in agreement with the Euro parallel that it may be NKY.

 

Thanks for your thoughts on this. I agree folks down by the river will have a tougher time than those near I-70. I just assumed the hilly areas south of me (Athens, Lancaster, etc.) would do well too.

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Yep, as I was saying its not a good setup. It's just a frontal passage. It will be like in the summer with patchy heavy precip, but no area wide better amounts.

Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk

 

seems ok here IMBY.  Haven't measured but looks like more than an inch and looking at radar we should hit 2 no problem.  Pretty much should nail it.

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