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Let's Talk Winter


Steve

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One of the meteorologists here in Columbus on channel 6 had to do a video explaining to people that we are not getting 4 to 6 inches on Sunday because I guess a lot of people were calling and asking about the snow for Sunday...lol

  

One of the meteorologists here in Columbus on channel 6 had to do a video explaining to people that we are not getting 4 to 6 inches on Sunday because I guess a lot of people were calling and asking about the snow for Sunday...lol

One of my coworkers asked me the same thing. Apparently a forecast from January 2014 by 10TV's Chris Bradley was being shared all over Facebook as if it was this Sunday's forecast. Those social media pictures can grow like wildfire. Smh.

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One of my coworkers asked me the same thing. Apparently a forecast from January 2014 by 10TV's Chris Bradley was being shared all over Facebook as if it was this Sunday's forecast. Those social media pictures can grow like wildfire. Smh.

 

Even folks who don't follow the weather are getting ansty for some snow. Ohioans are getting snow withdrawl.

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Even folks who don't follow the weather are getting ansty for some snow. Ohioans are getting snow withdrawl.

 

I feel for a lot of local contractors.  Getting into the worst kind of weather.  The ground freezes solid so they can't do hardscapes and other projects that can normally be done late into the season,  but there is also no snow or ice removal.   It's a total shut out for them.

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Well assuming we don't get much of anything Sunday, there is a clipper in the works for Tues/Wed.  Pretty moisture starved and may end up just as a frontal passage, but might be able to eek out a half inch or something LOL

 

The 00z GFS had a few decent hits for us, some clippers and some southern stuff but the Euro has been greedy this winter so far with it's fantasy digital snows.   I guess that speaks for it's accuracy though.   :lol:    

It's one thing not to have snow, it's even more amazing that we really haven't had a legit storm to track inside 7 days.

 

Even the euro 15 day mean doesn't look very promising for snow threats, granted more and more of the individual members are at least showing a few big dogs here and there.

 

Here's the euro 00z 10 day OP totals:

post-622-0-72853600-1452164328_thumb.jpg

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06Z is LES paradise, only <3 inches of what's shown in MI is from Saturday, so I'd take 8 inches of LES 169 miles inland from the lake.

 

And to the Ohio crew, it gives you some hope as well

 

 

 

Once a legitimate clipper train shows up, (assuming it does), it'll be interesting to see if it's a winter of north or south trends.

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Once a legitimate clipper train shows up, (assuming it does), it'll be interesting to see if it's a winter of north or south trends.

 

Many are assuming that it will be clipper city, but it's a big if.  However, anecdotally, storms have been coming in as strong or stronger than early model iterations indicate lately. If that continues, those clippers/screamers/maulers etc. may dig more than what models originally prog. Just a guess.

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So regarding the futility snowfall record...  2015-2016 is currently sitting at a Trace.

 

Here are the least snowy periods October 1st-January 7th.

 

1928-1929: 0.1

2006-2007: 0.2

1923-1924: 0.3

1908-1909 and 1940-1941: 0.5

1949-1950: 0.7

2011-2012: 0.9

1896-1897: 1.1

1918-1919, 1925-1926: 1.2

1965-1966: 1.3

1943-1944, 1982-1983, 1986-1987: 1.5

1879-1880, 1994-1995: 1.8

1938-1939: 2.0

 

Here were the results for the rest of the snow season, the overall seasonal total and the seasonal total from current average (listed as 26.7 at NWS ILN, which is down from what it used to be.

 

1928-1929: 18.3/18.4/-8.3

2006-2007: 22.1/22.3/-4.3

1923-1924: 12.0/12.3/-14.4

1908-1909: 15.7/16.2/-10.5

1940-1941: 10.1/10.7/-16

1949-1950: 5.8/6.5/-20.2

2011-2012: 11.3/12.2/-14-5

1896-1897: 7.5/8.6/-18.1

1918-1919: 2.2/3.4/-23.3

1925-1926: 26.1/27.3/+0.6

1965-1966: 16.2/17.5/-9.2

1943-1944: 12.1/13.6/-13.1

1982-1983: 10.0/11.5/-15.2

1986-1987: 21.7/23.2/-3.5

1879-1880: 2.5/4.3/-22.4

1994-1995: 19.9/21.7/-5

1938-1939: 16.3/18.3/-8.4

 

So not a lot of good news there.  Only one winter ended up slightly surpassing the current normal.  However, very few of these had cold months January-March.

 

1923-1924, 1925-1926, 1928-1929 and 1965-1966 all featured generally below normal temperatures between January and February, and sometimes into March.  These had a bit better average than those that did not.  Additionally, seasons like 1994-1995 and 2006-2007, which had at least one month decently below normal did better as well.  Only 1965-1966 and 2006-2007 had months with what might be considered severe, long duration cold.

 

So yeah, if temps can stay normal to below, there is a small chance that the rest of the winter can turn out something salvageable, but history has not been kind. 

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Seems like one of those clippers next week should give us something light.  A bit hard to believe both miss north given the fairly extreme blocking forecast.

 

00z ukmet and ggem both show the tuesday clipper now.  Appears the low track is thru southern MI but good coverage of snow well to the south.  Like you said, wouldn't be surprised to see it trend a bit south

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00z ukmet and ggem both show the tuesday clipper now.  Appears the low track is thru southern MI but good coverage of snow well to the south.  Like you said, wouldn't be surprised to see it trend a bit south

GGEM had the clipper before but this 0z run actually shifted south some. GFS finally caught on at the 18z run.

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