donsutherland1 Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 At least that's the argument published in a letter to Nature Climate Change. Excerpts: California is currently experiencing a record-setting drought that started in 2012 and recently culminated in the first ever mandatory state-wide water restriction1. The snowpack conditions in the Sierra Nevada mountains present an ominous sign of the severity of this drought: the 1 April 2015 snow water equivalent (SWE) was at only 5% of its historical average2. In the Mediterranean climate of California, with 80% of the precipitation occurring during winter months, Sierra Nevada snowpack plays a critical role in replenishing the state's water reservoirs and provides 30% of its water supply3... ur error estimation indicates that there is a possibility that a few (primarily sixteenth century) years exceeded the 2015 low, but the estimated return interval for the 2015 SWE value — as calculated based on a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution (Supplementary Information) — is 3,100 years and confirms its exceptional character. GEV-estimated return intervals can have large confidence intervals (Supplementary Fig. 2), but the 2015 SWE value exceeds the 95% confidence interval for a 500-year return period (Supplementary Fig. 3). In comparison, the previous lowest SWE reading (in 1977) exceeds the 95% confidence interval for only a 60-year return period. We also find that the 2015 SWE value is strongly exceptional — exceeding the 95% confidence interval for a 1,000-year return period — at low-elevation Sierra Nevada sites where winter temperature has strong control over SWE9, but less so at high-elevation sites, where it exceeds the 95% confidence interval for only a 95-year return period (Supplementary Information and Supplementary Fig. 2). http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/pdf/nclimate2809.pdf Hopefully, the ongoing El Niño will initiate a recovery from the ongoing drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted September 19, 2015 Share Posted September 19, 2015 Southwest CA has done well recently setting monthly records in some spots for the months of July and now September, normally very dry months. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 19, 2015 Share Posted September 19, 2015 Southwest CA has done well recently setting monthly records in some spots for the months of July and now September, normally very dry months. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come. I'm hoping that some of that can spread to Northern California. This is ridiculous how little of their rain has reached our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted September 20, 2015 Share Posted September 20, 2015 I'm hoping that some of that can spread to Northern California. This is ridiculous how little of their rain has reached our area. Past strong El Ninos have tended to produce above normal precip for central and northern CA so hopefully it works out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Summer rains (rare in CA)are not usually effective in drought mitigation since they occur too quickly and too spatially limited. What is needed are duration rains and a heavy snowpack in the northern Sierra. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 el nino winter can't get here quick enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 el nino winter can't get here quick enough Every time I check a 384 hr accumulation map, it's the same story -- nothing on the west coast. It's uncanny how that area of the western hemisphere seems to be exclusively left out of most precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Jonger, on 28 Sept 2015 - 09:33 AM, said:Every time I check a 384 hr accumulation map, it's the same story -- nothing on the west coast. It's uncanny how that area of the western hemisphere seems to be exclusively left out of most precipitation. it's still pretty typical this time of year, going to be a different story if the map looks similar in a couple months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 it's still pretty typical this time of year, going to be a different story if the map looks similar in a couple months I swear the map looked just like that in the last two Januarys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Has there been a dent in this yet with some of the storms starting up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Has there been a dent in this yet with some of the storms starting up? Building a large and robust snowpack will be key. Slow melt off in the Spring is the best way to recharge stocks. Good start, but we are still in the 1st quarter... Need several hundred more inches in the mountains before any kind of dent can be talked about IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 True it's early, though this map shows well above normal Sierra snowpack at this point. http://ski.curbed.com/archives/2015/11/el-nino-snow-california-.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Has there been a dent in this yet with some of the storms starting up? Last year started out very similarly with lots of storms in Nov/Dec. Then Jan onwards it dried up. (Jan ended up with no rain accumulations in many locations.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuck in cali Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 would like to see more liquid in general, whatever form, to help with aquifers and reservoirs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utrex Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Last year started out very similarly with lots of storms in Nov/Dec. Then Jan onwards it dried up. (Jan ended up with no rain accumulations in many locations.) There is no comparison snowpack-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Good for California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 There is no comparison snowpack-wise. True, last year's early winter storms were all warm in nature. The storms this year have been much colder with temperatures dipping to freezing after the storm passes. All in all, a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 nino is starting to deliver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utrex Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Very positive results are coming from the snowpack: The Northern Sierra is essentially at normal (98%), compared to April 1st of this year (28%). Central Sierra is doing very well too. Southern Sierra still needs time though. However, it is far better than the snowpack from April 1 (19%). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utrex Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Snowpack now above-average! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 And more coming too, for low elevations with the next system. Great news for the reservoirs in the state, which will have a good intake of water from the mountains during the dry season. Hopefully the pattern shifts to southern CA storms later in the winter, as they haven't seen as much rain as elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Looks like SoCal has a couple of storms coming up on the GFS - on schedule with a January pattern shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuck in cali Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 hey man, 16th century is a long time ago. did they have measure cups and such back in that day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 This should be the first couple of rainstorms to really focus in on California Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Quite a bit of urban and poor-drainage flash flooding today around Los Angeles. Not seeing too many complaints about the rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 The last 7 days (mostly last 2 days) of precipitation in California looks healthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The drought will soon be over......such is life on the best coast...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The drought will soon be over......such is life on the best coast...... Not even close. Can't speak for SoCal but here in the Bay Area, the amount of rain we have received so far this rainy season has been about average. Snowpack in the Sierra is also around average (110% of normal). This speaks to how dry the past few years have been. To bust the drought, we need a record-wet rainy season, with records going back to the 1800's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This has been a positive couple of weeks in California, with some areas of 200% of normal precipitation within the last couple of weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 We probably won't see any major drought reduction in tomorrow's Drought Monitor update, but the recent pattern is a start. Rainfall amounts this month are already 3-4+ times as much as the region saw all of last January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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