jaxjagman Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Unsettled period coming up right after Thanksgiving and lasting until the following Monday or Tuesday.Euro has some better DP's in the 60's in the western Valley Friday with some better convection.Models are still in the early stages but both the GFS and Euro showing the unsettled period. For Saturday November 28 - Friday December 04: A frontal system stretching from the Great Lakes southwestward to the southern Plains serves as a focusing mechanism for showers and thunderstorms leading to heavy rain (in excess of 1 inch in 24 hours) for parts of the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Nov 28. Here's a tidbit off of Joe Renkens blog http://beringsearule.blogspot.com/2015/11/late-november-early-december-storm.html And the storm analog of 2006 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Winter_2006_North_American_storm_complex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Not saying it will happen,but climo+ElNino, severe weather could loom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Unsettled period coming up right after Thanksgiving and lasting until the following Monday or Tuesday.Euro has some better DP's in the 60's in the western Valley Friday with some better convection.Models are still in the early stages but both the GFS and Euro showing the unsettled period. proa.accuweather.com adcbin professional hazwx.asp.png Numerical Model Prediction Tropical Tidbits.png For Saturday November 28 - Friday December 04: A frontal system stretching from the Great Lakes southwestward to the southern Plains serves as a focusing mechanism for showers and thunderstorms leading to heavy rain (in excess of 1 inch in 24 hours) for parts of the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Nov 28. Here's a tidbit off of Joe Renkens blog http://beringsearule.blogspot.com/2015/11/late-november-early-december-storm.html And the storm analog of 2006 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Winter_2006_North_American_storm_complex Thanks for the mention!Sent from my S50 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Considering the strong Nino,the weeklies could be much worse than what they look like today.Cold is still bottled up though but looks better than it did Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Unsettled pattern after Thanksgiving still looks good ...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... THE AREA ENCOMPASSING THE SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO PARTS OF THE TNVLY/LOWER OH VLY CONTINUES TO SHOW BEST POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OFHVY RNFL FROM LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONSULT LATESTNHC PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFO ON ERN PAC T.D. TWENTY-TWO-E WHICHIS CURRENTLY FCST TO STRENGTHEN AND ULTIMATELY MAY PROVIDE EXTRAMSTR TO ENHANCE THE SRN PLAINS ACTIVITY. TO THE NW OF THE HVYRAIN AREA EXPECT SOME WINTRY PCPN TO EXTEND ACROSS THE NRN HALF OFTHE PLAINS AS THE WRN UPR LOW FINALLY EJECTS EWD. BY THE LATTERHALF OF THE PERIOD THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INCOVERAGE/TIMING OF BOTH NRN TIER WINTRY PCPN AS WELL AS ERN CONUSRNFL. THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD MAY BRING SOME LGT/SCT PCPN TOCA. THEREAFTER EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE IN MSTR ALONG THECNTRL-NRN WEST COAST BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT QUESTION MARKS REMAININGAS TO THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS TREND. WITHIN THE INITIALLY VERY COLD PATTERN OVER THE WRN-CNTRLSTATES... THE MOST EXTREME TEMPS SHOULD BE 10-25F BELOW NORMAL FORHIGHS OVER AND JUST E OF THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CNTRL-SRN ROCKIESFRI-SAT. A BROAD AREA OF MINUS 5-15F ANOMALIES SHOULD LINGERACROSS THE SRN TIER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE NRN PLAINS ANDVICINITY SHOULD SEE TEMPS TREND ABOVE NORMAL. ACROSS THE EASTWARM TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE REPLACED BY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOWNORMAL READINGS. RAUSCH Uncertainty though forward into early next week.If the Euro is right Tuesday there would be a strong slow moving cold front swinging through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Surprised no one is talking about the weeklies for wk 4.Huge upper ridge setting up around the Hudson Bay.The CFS basically has the same idea. Who knows,at least Nino so far isn't boring for us in the Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 4.pngBeen so quiet here from a wx standpoint...I am only looking at the wx models every other day. I only look at the GFS. If it isn't cold, none of the rest are. Hey, thanks for sharing that map. Maybe a break towards cooler weather. Here is a Judah Cohen interview with the Capital Weather Gang. Would support John's thinking... https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/11/24/innovating-forecaster-highlights-potential-for-very-snowy-winter-in-mid-atlantic-d-c/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 He has high Siberian surface press on his side. However, where is that going to dump? Europe? Asia? North America? MJO is about to go into warm phases again; hence, December CFS and ECMWF charts are on fire. After that, strong East Nino still favors warm North America. Probability of the Siberian dump into North America is about 1/3, leaving warm signals for the other 2/3. I still double climo odds of a warm winter. Likely be just slight above Valley, but North America looks warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Euro left the cutoff behind this run Cut back on the rain doing this,still some decent amounts showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Been so quiet here from a wx standpoint...I am only looking at the wx models every other day. I only look at the GFS. If it isn't cold, none of the rest are. Hey, thanks for sharing that map. Maybe a break towards cooler weather. Here is a Judah Cohen interview with the Capital Weather Gang. Would support John's thinking... https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/11/24/innovating-forecaster-highlights-potential-for-very-snowy-winter-in-mid-atlantic-d-c/ He seems to be talking in circles with his last update today on AER compared to the Post article you posted.Made it sound like we had a fairly decent chance for a good winter on the Post to possible gloom and doom on AER http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 He seems to be talking in circles with his last update today on AER compared to the Post article you posted.Made it sound like we had a fairly decent chance for a good winter on the Post to possible gloom and doom on AER http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation IDK...the AER seemed about the same. The polar vortex is so stable...nothing new to say. Every winter has surprises...just waiting to see what this one holds. Warm? Cold? Snow? Or not? I know this...my leaves are off the trees far earlier than normal. Now, time to go weigh some squirrels to see if they are getting loaded up for winter. Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Last GFS is catching on to the Euro for total rain fall coming up,Euro still has more in the east than what the GFS is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Can we lock up the Nino thread and start the winter thread since met winter is almost upon us?It seems all relative now what happens with Nino is going to happen in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 DAYS 2/3... ...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY/TN VALLEY/MIDATLANTIC... DEEP MOISTURE ON A STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A FRONTALBOUNDARY WILL FEED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM THESOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY DURING DAY2...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER MS INTO THE TNVALLEY DURING DAY 3. HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLEACROSS THESE AREAS DURING DAYS 2 AND 3. THE MOISTURE BECOMESSTRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATESEACH DAY AS WELL. WHILE THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MASS FIELDAGREEMENT AMONG THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE 00Z ECMWF WAS MORECONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS THAN THE GFS...SO THE WPCQPF WAS BASED LARGELY ON THIS SOLUTION. DAY 2...MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARYEXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE LOWER AND MID MSVALLEY ON DAY 2 SHOULD FEED AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDEDLOW TOPPED CONVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THAT SURFACE BASEDINSTABILITY IS MINIMAL AT BEST. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT UP ANDOVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST TS...FAR SOUTHEAST OKINTO MUCH OF AR SHOULD MAKE THE MOST OF THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHPRECIPITABLE WATER AIR (WHICH IS ABOUT THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONSABOVE THE MEAN) TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN EXTENDING FROMWEST TX...ACROSS NORTHEAST TX INTO AR AND FAR WESTERN KY/WESTERNTN. THE HEAVIEST QPF WAS STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO WESTCENTRAL AR...WHERE 2.75 TO 3.25 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED. THESEAMOUNTS ARE SUPPORTED BY A FEW MEMBERS OF THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE(INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS)...AS WELL AS MEMBERS OF BOTH THE 00ZGEFS AND THE LATEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE OUTPUT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...AS THE 850-400 MB FLOWBECOMES BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE CORFIDI VECTORS AHEAD OF THE FRONTACROSS THE ABOVEMENTIONED AREA. WHILE THREE HOUR FLASH FLOODGUIDANCE VALUES START BETWEEN 2.00 AND 3.00 INCHES...HEAVYRAINFALL ON DAY 1 SHOULD LOWER THESE VALUES...SO THAT THE THREATFOR FLASH FLOODING INCREASES HERE. BECAUSE OF THIS...A MODERATERISK AREA WAS PLACED ACROSS A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST TX/SOUTHEASTOK...AND A LARGER AREA OF WEST CENTRAL AR. THE MODERATE RISK AREAWAS SURROUNDED BY A SLIGHT RISK AREA EXTENDING FROM WEST TX INTOTHE REMAINDER OF AR...FAR SOUTHEAST MO INTO WESTERN TN/KY. FURTHER EAST...THE ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES FOCUSED AHEAD OF ANDOVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERNMID ATLANTIC STATES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED SOME ELEVATEDINSTABILITY HERE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOPPING OUT NEAR1.25 INCHES (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THEMEAN). THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND DEEPENING MOISTURE COULDSUPPORT A LONG AXIS OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF STRETCHING FROMSOUTHERN OH/SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN WV ACROSS MUCH OF NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 DAY 3...WHILE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/THROUGHTHE TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC DURING DAY3...ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY UP ACROSS ANELEVATED BOUNDARY BACK ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY/TN VALLEYS WILLTAP DEEP MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO HEAVY RAIN/EXCESSIVE RAINFALLTHREAT. ONCE AGAIN...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS LACKING...BUTMODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED INSTABILITY ALONG THE ISENTROPIC SURFACE.PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.75 INCHES WILL FEEDTHE ELEVATED CONVECTION...ACROSS THE TN AND LOWER OHVALLEYS...WHERE AN AXIS QPF 1.75 TO 2.25 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED(MAINLY OVER TN INTO SOUTHERN KY). THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES IN THIS AREA GENERALLYRANGE BETWEEN 2.00 AND 3.00 INCHES. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FORTRAINING OF HEAVY RAIN ELEMENTS...AS THE 850-400 MB FLOW BECOMESBETTER ALIGNED WITH THE CORFIDI VECTORS. THE 00Z GFS SHOWED AMAXIMUM QPF OVER 2.75 INCHES OVER WESTERN TN...WHILE THE 00Z UKMETSHOWED A MAXIMUM CLOSER TO 3.00 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN TN. GIVENSOME SPREAD IN THE 00Z MODEL OUTPUT...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENTAIRMASS IN PLACE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING...A SLIGHT RISKAREA WAS PLACED OVER MUCH OF TN....AS WELL AS SOUTHERN KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Rather warm tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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