jaxjagman Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 More Halloween cold? They moved the Kentucky game up and the flakes may still be flying in Lexington. Last year was miserable on Hallowwen. If you wanna believe the control this far out,it would be snowing in the mountains late next Wed-Thursday morn,but there is a warm nose 925mb,so you need to be more or less 3k ft up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Control last night is looking like what the weeklies have been hinting at around the 26-27 of the month,other than timing issues.A slow moving cold front,ridge to the east,system coming out the Gulf that rides it with a - tilted trough.Potential is there for some heavy rains and flooding Still a chance for some storms mid week, next week.Go up a time frame to 174 hrs the 850's are 65 kts towards Chatty area.70-75 KTS the plateau into tri area.My hodos are off the chart for us in Mid Tn.Lots of shear to work with.Looking rather windy anyways,wetter towards the western Valley,possibly up to 4"rain,on todays 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Euro backed off the OZ run,winds anyways mid week.Still is bullish on some decent rains next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 The Euro went back to the W this afternoon.Position is fairly close to the 12z GFS early Wed.,it's still stronger than the GFS.My surface gust map shows 50-55kts for all of Mid.Tn.,early morn into the afternoon Wed on the Euro.Best moisture is still showing towards the western part of the Valley on the models.The NW parts is in a moderate drought,so this should help that area out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Confused what the WPC shows today,they still have the LP, day3 off the LA coast,day 4 they drift it into the GOM,day 5 it's back towards the gulf shore LA/MS,day 6 it's in NE Ga riding the cold front?.. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=6&fcolor=wbg Edit:Now back in Arkansas today,where the models show it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 MJO is gonna get some stronger signals later on towards the Indian Ocean.Going into p2-3,but there is still alot of convection being shown through the 1st week of Nov.There should be a ridge like the EPS shows to our east and the Euro shows a slow moving front that stalls out over the western Valley that could be a dumpage of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 MJO is gonna get some stronger signals later on towards the Indian Ocean.Going into p2-3,but there is still alot of convection being shown on our side through the 1st week of Nov.There should be a ridge like the EPS shows to our east and the Euro shows a slow moving front that stalls out over the western Valley d-8-10 that could be a dumpage of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 That's some serious rain down SE of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Both the euro and GFS show a strong SER down the road,we could be flirting with some record highs into the first week of Nov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 There is our challenge for the winter. Looking upstream a pineapple express is established downstream of neutral heights around Hawaii. Ridging is forecast all across the North Pacific, but highest heights Aleutians not GOA. Pineapple X below is a classic West trough. When the Southeast Canada ridge is not going nuts, we might go Southeast USA ridge. We will fight this battle frequently I'm afraid. Perhaps deep into winter it will only take one brief cold shot under a slug of moisture. First things first. I hope that SER is clean because I want the sun back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 GFS is playing trick or treat with us on Friday the 13th coming up, daytime highs in the upper 20's,obviously a trick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Very wet days ahead per the GFS. Has at least some rain every single day through November 10 at KCHA. Total is in the 5-6 inch range. We've been lucky so far today to have this rain stall just south of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Both the GFS and Euro has a front moving through the Valley towards the end of the work week.After that they go opposite directions.Euro is showing the front coming through then lifts back up as a warm front and develops a low pressure system from our SW then that comes through Tn.This would be a big rain maker for the Valley if it's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Maybe some fun down the road,both the Euro and GFS show it,just timing right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 4, 2015 Author Share Posted November 4, 2015 GFS has some fantasy East Tennessee, SE Kentucky, SW Virginia snow showers showing up mid month. Been fairly consistent with a potentially large cool down around mid to late November, after a very warm first half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Still no freeze in sight on the GFS. Coldest temp through Nov. 21 is 33. I've never had to mow grass in November before, but I likely will next week. It hasn't stopped growing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Still no freeze in sight on the GFS. Coldest temp through Nov. 21 is 33. I've never had to mow grass in November before, but I likely will next week. It hasn't stopped growing. Yep, I have lettuce bolting up to my waist... in November. If I'd known it would be this warm I'd have planted another round of maters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Both the GFS and Euro control are hinting at some volatile pattern heading into wk3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Anomalies WK2-3 GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Very little cold in the pattern of the CONUS during the next ten days at lower elevations. Seasonable(closer to seasonable than some of those 15+ days...edit). Cold is bottled up in northern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Hopefully changes though coming up,AO and NAO both going negative in the next several days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 8, 2015 Author Share Posted November 8, 2015 Models keep showing a cool down around the 18th and wintry precip at some point in the days that follow for portions of the Valley. Long way out and these things often show up at day 12 for a long while until the pattern actually decides to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Hopefully changes though coming up,AO and NAO both going negative in the next several days Just looked at CPC...maybe they go negative. Maybe. Looks like they are struggling to go past neutral. The get slightly negative late in those outlooks. The PNA is neutral to very slightly negative. I think a pattern change is possible but far from certain. WxSouth seems to think later this month it happens. I can't say I disagree. Right now every shot of cold is ushered out quickly. The experimental CPC 3-4 week forecast is warm for the East. I just don't see many mechanisms to get the cold south and to have it hold. Until then, enjoy some great temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Just looked at CPC...maybe they go negative. Maybe. Looks like they are struggling to go past neutral. The get slightly negative late in those outlooks. The PNA is neutral to very slightly negative. I think a pattern change is possible but far from certain. WxSouth seems to think later this month it happens. I can't say I disagree. Right now every shot of cold is ushered out quickly. The experimental CPC 3-4 week forecast is warm for the East. I just don't see many mechanisms to get the cold south and to have it hold. Until then, enjoy some great temps. I am going to try not to post too much on this if it continues through the winter (because the haters are going to start coming out of the woodwork!) but the pattern on both ensembles is pretty stable through Day 15...we are probably not going to torch based on El Nino climo but much of the eastern and midwest US will for the next few weeks and on into early/mid December...but that should not be a shocker to most of you...you should not be expecting much until the latter half of Jan at the earliest anyway, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 I am going to try not to post too much on this if it continues through the winter (because the haters are going to start coming out of the woodwork!) but the pattern on both ensembles is pretty stable through Day 15...we are probably not going to torch based on El Nino climo but much of the eastern and midwest US will for the next few weeks and on into early/mid December...but that should not be a shocker to most of you...you should not be expecting much until the latter half of Jan at the earliest anyway, right? Just as long as we don't go warm and dry i can live with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 I am going to try not to post too much on this if it continues through the winter (because the haters are going to start coming out of the woodwork!) but the pattern on both ensembles is pretty stable through Day 15...we are probably not going to torch based on El Nino climo but much of the eastern and midwest US will for the next few weeks and on into early/mid December...but that should not be a shocker to most of you...you should not be expecting much until the latter half of Jan at the earliest anyway, right? You know, this winter will be a good test for our subforum. I don't think we have too many haters. So, keep posting. You and Jeff are down to earth mets. And yes, the pattern looks very stable. I am only checking the GFS once per day, nothing else. Looks the same each day. My grass is still growing. I remember during the 90s during some of those Nino years, the outdoor pool at UT opened in January. Not a fan of this pattern, but it is no surprise this time like you say. Strong Nino winters require great patience for those who like snow. If we get many chances at all, mid to late winter is the time for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 They may drift over from another regional forum...the winter of 2013 is not forgotten! But you are correct...great bunch of posters here and even if it is a bit slow until we get some real weather, the quality is always good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 9, 2015 Author Share Posted November 9, 2015 We'll just have to see where things go, out of the 5 strong/very strong Nino's since 1950, 3 have featured December snowfalls in the area, including both very strong Nino's, and two did not. Overall, they are fairly warm. So don't expect much prolonged cold before January for the most part. Though from Christmas until New Years of 1997/98 was a cold and snowy stretch around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 They may drift over from another regional forum...the winter of 2013 is not forgotten! But you are correct...great bunch of posters here and even if it is a bit slow until we get some real weather, the quality is always good! Looking forward to riding this one out with y'all (as usual more as a lurker than a poster). We will get a few chances during mid-late winter, though I do believe this winter will be even more elevation dependent than usual. It will be an enjoyable ride, regardless. When the football season ends, for me it becomes SNOW SEASON...with a little hockey thrown in. Thanks for all you do, folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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