John1122 Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 Meteorological Summer ended 9 days ago. The weather is definitely looking fall-like over the coming week, with many areas looking likely to see the 40s for lows and upper 60s to low 70s for highs. I don't know if we'll see 30s as the GFS is hinting at (I've seen 30s in late September here) but do think upper 40s/low 50s will be wide spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 10, 2015 Author Share Posted September 10, 2015 GFS is looking frosty in the mountains and very chilly overall everywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/fxus05.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Experimental 3-4 week outlook.1st one released today http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Just for kicks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rbowman Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Numerical Model Prediction Tropical Tidbits.png Just for kicks Maybe an early Frost! I like the looks of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I feel with the TS/Hurricane, maybe some discussion is warranted. Looks like most of this stops in the mtns, some downsloping in the valleys, and some needed rains on the Plateau. Amounts in the Piedmont look overdone much like the blizzard that never happened last winter. But with a tropical system half of what is modeled would be pretty bad. Let's hope that does not come to fruition for our friends across the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I feel with the TS/Hurricane, maybe some discussion is warranted. Looks like most of this stops in the mtns, some downsloping in the valleys, and some needed rains on the Plateau. Amounts in the Piedmont look overdone much like the blizzard that never happened last winter. But with a tropical system half of what is modeled would be pretty bad. Let's hope that does not come to fruition for our friends across the mtns. Have you seen the 6z GFS? Brings the band into our area and crushing KTRI with up to 10 inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Have you seen the 6z GFS? Brings the band into our area and crushing KTRI with up to 10 inches of rain. The Euro isn't on board with a landfall solution and it's within 5 days. If this was winter we all know how this would play out, right? lol So it's the Euro against the world. I am taking bets. Where do you guys/gals place your chips? In all seriousness, I would love to hear one of our mets thoughts on this one. I say you can't discount the best model in the world, and even though it's on an island it probably has at least a 50% chance of verifying with it's OTS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 GFS has a weird looking track and is pretty far left of what the NHC is predicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro should prevail, and not just because it is the Euro. That said, the Mid Atlantic and NC are still going to get hammered by heavy rain and flooding associated with the stalled and juicy front fed by a tropical tap. Relative to Sandy the Euro and GFS traded tracks for Joaquin. Ironically, despite opposite tracks, the reason is the same. GFS has a faster deeper more progressive mid-latitude trough, just like it did approaching Sandy. In 2012 the GFS trough booted the storm out to sea. Euro correctly steered Sandy in under the New England high press. This year Joaquin is positioned differently, approaching from farther south. GFS trough pulls it west. Euro more subtle trough influences Joaquin later, and after it is set sail at sea. Although the Joaquin tracks are reversed compared to Sandy, the physics is the same. GFS may overdo a mid-latitude trough; and, the Euro has a good chance of prevailing. If the Euro indeed prevails it will be an impressive coup over the HWRF. Clashing with the GFS is no surprise, but the HWRF is a more formidable foe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 MRX has decided to go with the GFS and is saying 2-5 inches of rain Friday night - Saturday night. It'll be interesting to see what happens to say the least. If the GFS scenario occurs, Western NC and the Far Eastern areas here will probably see a good bit of flash flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Euro should prevail, and not just because it is the Euro. That said, the Mid Atlantic and NC are still going to get hammered by heavy rain and flooding associated with the stalled and juicy front fed by a tropical tap. Relative to Sandy the Euro and GFS traded tracks for Joaquin. Ironically, despite opposite tracks, the reason is the same. GFS has a faster deeper more progressive mid-latitude trough, just like it did approaching Sandy. In 2012 the GFS trough booted the storm out to sea. Euro correctly steered Sandy in under the New England high press. This year Joaquin is positioned differently, approaching from farther south. GFS trough pulls it west. Euro more subtle trough influences Joaquin later, and after it is set sail at sea. Although the Joaquin tracks are reversed compared to Sandy, the physics is the same. GFS may overdo a mid-latitude trough; and, the Euro has a good chance of prevailing. If the Euro indeed prevails it will be an impressive coup over the HWRF. Clashing with the GFS is no surprise, but the HWRF is a more formidable foe. Money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 0z and 6z GFS trended to the Euro's OTS solution. The Euro has scored a lot of wins before but this one will be its biggest win. Virtually no other model was even close to the Euro. I still think it has a chance to get captured and hit land. It is very close. Regardless it won't matter too much for the Carolinas with respect to rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 My job site is out by Parksville Lake on the Ocoee river. TVA has dropped the lake level 2 feet today. I assume in preparation for the need for flood storage. Although the mountains may keep the crazy foot plus totals out of TN, I'm worried about the potential for training convection causing flooding on a more isolated basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 0z and 6z GFS trended to the Euro's OTS solution. The Euro has scored a lot of wins before but this one will be its biggest win. Virtually no other model was even close to the Euro. I still think it has a chance to get captured and hit land. It is very close. Regardless it won't matter too much for the Carolinas with respect to rainfall. It is so far outside the NHC cone of CYA by 72 hours on the Euro I doubt there is much chance of that...but as you said, it won't matter for the rainfall that is coming. Almost all of our upper tribs are on the edge of big precip totals so we will be watching this very carefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It is so far outside the NHC cone of CYA by 72 hours on the Euro I doubt there is much chance of that...but as you said, it won't matter for the rainfall that is coming. Almost all of our upper tribs are on the edge of big precip totals so we will be watching this very carefully. TVA just pouring water down the Holston. I always know they are concerned when they are making room in their reservoirs up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Looks like FFC has expanded their FFW to all of the TN border counties. I'm expecting MRX to expand the FFW to include their entire CWA tonight. The moisture train is clearly not having any problems crossing the mountains so far. There will be a sharp cutoff on the southern edge, but I think most of SE TN will be north of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 12, 2015 Author Share Posted October 12, 2015 Looking like the first frost/freeze is coming down the pike this weekend. Lows should be in the 30s for most areas, especially north of 40 Saturday night. If the GFS is true, it may frost Thursday morning in my area and lows in the 20s are possible Sunday morning in Northern East Tennessee/SE Kentucky/SW Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Looking like the first frost/freeze is coming down the pike this weekend. Lows should be in the 30s for most areas, especially north of 40 Saturday night. If the GFS is true, it may frost Thursday morning in my area and lows in the 20s are possible Sunday morning in Northern East Tennessee/SE Kentucky/SW Virginia. Shows us getting down to 40,when is your avg. first freeze? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 13, 2015 Author Share Posted October 13, 2015 Shows us getting down to 40,when is your avg. first freeze? October 18th-20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Looks like Monday morn will be the coldest now,here are some wind chills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Euro concurs with GFS temperature output. 12Z runs 14 Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Control last night is looking like what the weeklies have been hinting at around the 26-27 of the month,other than timing issues.A slow moving cold front,ridge to the east,system coming out the Gulf that rides it with a - tilted trough.Potential is there for some heavy rains and flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Freeze warning all the way down to our southern countieshttp://www.weather.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Cool down not as quick as I expected. My station is at 50.2F, was expecting to get down to near freezing. Maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 The GFS is getting similar to the Euro,not as progressive.Still much can change but a good plume of moisture is looking to get pulled up,we could use the rain right now especially in the NW parts of the Valley that are in a moderate drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Cool down not as quick as I expected. My station is at 50.2F, was expecting to get down to near freezing. Maybe not. If you didn't that cold it probably was from the HP to the east bringing up southerly winds,at least that's what effected us over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Latest Euro has a cold blast affecting the area by Halloween time. Maybe some flakes too. Higher possibility for snow from this model more north though. Areas like MI or Hoover Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 More Halloween cold? They moved the Kentucky game up and the flakes may still be flying in Lexington. Last year was miserable on Hallowwen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.