DTWXRISK Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 SNOW SIBERIA UPDATEOCT 25 = 13.61 MILLION sq km octOCT 26= 14.50OCT 27 = 14.90OCT 28 = 15.16 GAIN OVER over 1.5 million in 4 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 finall number will be based on WEEK 44 which in 2015 ENDS november 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 finall number will be based on WEEK 44 which in 2015 ENDS november 2 Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't this theory also go on the amount of gain through the October time period (to week 44)? If so, would the sudden drop off last year, late in October, equate badly for a negative AO. Whereas this years continued fast increase would point better towards a negative AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't this theory also go on the amount of gain through the October time period (to week 44)? If so, would the sudden drop off last year, late in October, equate badly for a negative AO. Whereas this years continued fast increase would point better towards a negative AO. It's about the aggregate rate of gain for the month....thus last year still ranks more highly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 It's about the aggregate rate of gain for the month....thus last year still ranks more highly. Gotcha...Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 It has been a rollercoaster for the last week or so. As of 10/27, there was 18.66 total Eurasian SCE as per the week #43 number. I very roughly estimate that it dropped to 16 as of 10/31 after those huge western flank losses. Now it has risen sharply back to 17.75 as of 11/3 (per the week 44 number) after quite large net gains mainly in the western sector since 10/31. For comparison sake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 SNOW SIBERIA UPDATE OCT 25 = 13.61 MILLION sq km oct OCT 26= 14.50 OCT 27 = 14.90 OCT 28 = 15.16 GAIN OVER over 1.5 million in 4 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quagmire Wx Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 MEXICO.jpg Aye Carumba!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Let's put this in perspective, at least for the month of October where the Rutgers Global Snow Lab has monthly statistics, if not for the real SAI time frame, which runs through weeks 40-44, October 7th through November 5th. The current 15.16 million sq km total for October, if it holds, is already ahead of last October's total of 14.140 msk, and would be second only to 1976. It would also result in a higher SAI than last year, especially since by last October 7th we already had some gains south of 60N, while this year there was very little. Double Ay Carumba!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Let's put this in perspective, at least for the month of October where the Rutgers Global Snow Lab has monthly statistics, if not for the real SAI time frame, which runs through weeks 40-44, October 7th through November 5th. The current 15.16 million sq km total for October, if it holds, is already ahead of last October's total of 14.140 msk, and would be second only to 1976. It would also result in a higher SAI than last year, especially since by last October 7th we already had some gains south of 60N, while this year there was very little. Double Ay Carumba!! Total Eurasian snowcover south of 60N is definitely not as high this year as last year at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 2015 vs 2014 snow cover anomalies: Don't know if it matters, but the anomalies this year are more substantial this year closer to the heart of Siberia. Also, last year there were some pretty big losses during late October and early November. Does not look like that will be the case this year if model forecasts are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 This from NESDIS. Its end-of-Oct-2014 total is clearly higher than that of Rutgers. Confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Badfishranch Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Does anybody have what the snow advance looked like in October 1997, the SUPER NINO [emphasis mine]? Just curious what that analog looked like to what we have now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Does anybody have what the snow advance looked like in October 1997, the SUPER NINO [emphasis mine]? Just curious what that analog looked like to what we have now.It was low in 10/97.http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_area.php?ui_set=1&ui_sort=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Looks like we will close the month out strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 That snowpack stratification in Canada looks similar to last season's mean H5 configuration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 top is 10/31/15,middle is 10/31/09, and bottom is 10/31/02 (in case you can't read maps ).....we have not done bad at all this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Best similiarity is 1972. Followed by 1997 and 1982. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Followed by 1997 and 1982. Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Correct. That looks nothing like right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 That looks nothing like right now. Agreed...not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Correct. I was actually being sarcastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 you are seriously delusional Best similiarity is 1972. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 really you need to learn basic math and how to read amps all over again this may be the worst analysis I have ever seen from anyone since the civil war Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 ESTIMATED by the end of week 44 which in this case is NOV 2 .... 16.80 million sq km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 I was actually being sarcastic. I was playing along with you, but the weather geeks didn't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 oct31.jpg ESTIMATED by the end of week 44 which in this case is NOV 2 .... 16.80 million sq km Not too shabby.... This will certainly point towards a -AO. Last year may have been an outlier, but this winter will either make or break the correlation. If it fails again, then most folks won't even bother to track it next winter. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Cohen will concoct a way to claim victory, regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Not too shabby.... This will certainly point towards a -AO. Last year may have been an outlier, but this winter will either make or break the correlation. If it fails again, then most folks won't even bother to track it next winter. Just my opinion. The anomalously low wave 1 amplitude in Oct suggests that tropospheric forcing on the stratosphere may be difficult to come by. I don't think it should be looked at as a make or break year, though it is getting pretty clear that it isn't the big dog that perhaps we once thought it to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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