And we begin.....

[Superstorm93]

Michael Ventrice from WSI says the current snow over Eurasia is nothing too exciting...yet

Missing data from 2014 and 2010

Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk

[radarman]

Michael Ventrice from WSI says the current snow over Eurasia is nothing too exciting...yet

Missing data from 2014 and 2010

Sent from my SM-G925V

 

There is something weird about those numbers... need the bounding box... does not align with the sat presentation currently.  For example, 2008, which it shows there to be on par with this year, but in the ssd snow archive appears not to be close.

[griteater]

Cohen speaks...

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/10/14/expert-ramp-up-in-siberian-snow-cover-hints-at-cold-winter-for-eastern-u-s/

[Eskimo Joe]

Mike Ventrice give s glimmer of hope:

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/655031788583178240

[Absolute Humidity]

Nice bump below 60.

Oct 17

Oct 15

DT GFS playing out nicely.

[nzucker]

Wow, huge increase in central Siberia.

[nzucker]

Snow cover should expand south into Mongolia, Kazakhstan, and western China as another low pressure traverses the region with tremendous blocking pushing cold air farther south than normal. Expect gains to continue.

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like we had better snow anomalies this time last year.

 

[ORH_wxman]

Looks like we had better snow anomalies this time last year.

 

d290_10172014.PNG

 

 

Last October had the 2nd highest anomalies of any year since records began...only October 1976 was higher. We won't match last year.

 

The SAI could still technically be higher though since last year stagnated a bit at the end of the month.

[Ginx snewx]

Last October had the 2nd highest anomalies of any year since records began...only October 1976 was higher. We won't match last year.

The SAI could still technically be higher though since last year stagnated a bit at the end of the month.

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_rankings.php?ui_set=1#nhland

[mitchnick]

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_rankings.php?ui_set=1#nhland

Pretty interesting how recent years have had AN snow cover in September and October all over N America.

[Ginx snewx]

Pretty interesting how recent years have had AN snow cover in September and October all over N America.

http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_plots.html

[40/70 Benchmark]

We're a bit ahead of 2009.

[DTWXRISK]

The overall pattern across  Siberia continues to evolve into what can only be  described  as n extremely favorable setup with regard to  producing significant snowfall over the  the last 12 days of the month.

 

To begin with  I wil  show the shift or change in the snowfall cover between October 18 and October 31.  As you can see this is a significant change south of 60° N latitude.   -- the thick black line that I have drawn in on both maps.

 

 

 Now lets show why the pattern is so favorable and why the snowfall forecast may be some what underdone  whe  we consider  the  500mb pattern

 

These first two maps represent the upper air pattern as of October 19 and October 22.  We can see two very large  ULL- Upper  level Lows  covering all of Central Russia  "b"  and Siberia (a) while to the north there is a RIDGE stream to the north of the  Northern Siberia Coast --over the  Asian side of the Arctic circle.  This is indeed a  REX BLOCK  pattern that I have  been talking about for some time.

 

 

By October 22 that next big system over Central Russia  "b"  is already driving into western Siberia but the large  ULL over central Siberia (a) is still moving rather slowly.  The close proximity of these two massive systems likely to bring about persistent areas of widespread heavy snowfall for several days and some of the snow will fall south of the 60° N latitude line.

 

 

On October 23 the next day the  upper low that was over eastern Siberia (a)  has now moved into that Kamchatka  Peninsula while the system over South Central Russia  "b"   has rapidly intensify into a deep close up low moving along the Mongolian Siberia border.  And yet a new system has crossed the Urals and appears to be headed for central Siberia ©.

 

 

By October 25 the pattern is going well  absolutely fooking bonkers!!!   The intensifying upper low over Siberia and the north Manchuria border with China moves into the Sea of Japan and just south of  Kamchatka" 'b" .  The next big system up stream coming out of South Central Russia moves across Mongolia and Siberia   ©    border and it also intensifies but it begins to slow down significantly because of the system in the Sea of Japan!!   And further upstream ...there  is another large upper low with a very powerful surface reflection moving into western and central Siberia! (d)

 

 

 

During the last several days October the impressive and very amplified pattern continues

[Chambana]

Cool stuff DT, thanks for the good read. Will be fun watching this play out. Will this have effects downstream on us weather for November?

[BuffaloWeather]

 

The overall pattern across  Siberia continues to evolve into what can only be  described  as n extremely favorable setup with regard to  producing significant snowfall over the  the last 12 days of the month.

 

To begin with  I wil  show the shift or change in the snowfall cover between October 18 and October 31.  As you can see this is a significant change south of 60° N latitude.   -- the thick black line that I have drawn in on both maps.

 

12days.jpg

 

 Now lets show why the pattern is so favorable and why the snowfall forecast may be some what underdone  whe  we consider  the  500mb pattern

 

These first two maps represent the upper air pattern as of October 19 and October 22.  We can see two very large  ULL- Upper  level Lows  covering all of Central Russia (  and Siberia (a) while to the north there is a RIDGE stream to the north of the  Northern Siberia Coast --over the  Asian side of the Arctic circle.  This is indeed a  REX BLOCK  pattern that I have  been talking about for some time.

 

 

By October 22 that next big system over Central Russia  (  is already driving into western Siberia but the large  ULL over central Siberia (a) is still moving rather slowly.  The close proximity of these two massive systems likely to bring about persistent areas of widespread heavy snowfall for several days and some of the snow will fall south of the 60° N latitude line.

 

15102212_1912.jpg

 

On October 23 the next day the  upper low that was over eastern Siberia (a)  has now moved into that Kamchatka  Peninsula while the system over South Central Russia  ( has rapidly intensify into a deep close up low moving along the Mongolian Siberia border.  And yet a new system has crossed the Urals and appears to be headed for central Siberia ©.

 

 

By October 25 the pattern is going well  absolutely fooking bonkers!!!   The intensifying upper low over Siberia and the north Manchuria border with China moves into the Sea of Japan and just south of  Kamchatka ( .  The next big system up stream coming out of South Central Russia moves across Mongolia and Siberia   ©    border and it also intensifies but it begins to slow down significantly because of the system in the Sea of Japan!!   And further upstream ...there  is another large upper low with a very powerful surface reflection moving into western and central Siberia! (d)

 

15102612_1912.jpg

 

 

During the last several days October the impressive and very amplified pattern continues

 

 

Amazing write-up. So if Cohens theory is indeed correct this season will be an excellant test. A top 3 Nino pattern with Siberian snowcover at very high levels. Wonder which one will win out?

[DTWXRISK]

 the KEY will be  the  rate of decline  in the  STRONG  El Nino 

 

 

[DTWXRISK]

 also  most other models do NOT .... at this time ... show a  decline this fast

[Amped]

This winter will come down to 1 or 2 big storms, this is usually the case for the Mid Atlantic but this year it maybe true further northeast also.

[billgwx]

 also  most other models do NOT .... at this time ... show a  decline this fast

 

That's right. But why buy the CFS over the multi-model ensemble (below)?

 

[billgwx]

This winter will come down to 1 or 2 big storms, this is usually the case for the Mid Atlantic but this year it maybe true further northeast also.

 Looking back at past strong Nino winters I'd have to agree.

[scottmartin49]

That's right. But why buy the CFS over the multi-model ensemble (below)?

 

 

....because it's telling him what he wants to hear. The rest of the time it's sh*%.

[1900hurricane]

I know I've seen some talk wondering if Nuri screwed with things some last year. Well, there's a chance we may have a similar situation fairly soon with recurving Typhoon Champi. Pretty much all models are taking the former typhoon below 950 mb, and there are a few that take it below 920 mb. This is still 5-6 days out or so, so it could be something to keep an eye on.

[DTWXRISK]

 it is clear you   either didnt  read  what I posted or you are just waaay  too   fooking  stupid to follow it

first off   I did not   BUY    anything   -- all I did was  post the image   as an alternative 

 2nd  point you   a$$hole  I said  in the post above  3  times  IF IF IF

 
Now  you want back down    or do you want to tangle with me again? 
 

....because it's telling him what he wants to hear. The rest of the time it's sh*%.

[DTWXRISK]

I    DID  says IF  IF   IF    like  3 times  above
I am pretty sure  posting out of the box  thinking is part of science...   whereas  GROUP  think ...is   quite harmful 

 

Certainly  we will know   by  thanksgiving-- IF  enso  34   has   flatline  at say  +2.2  or  +2.4  then that would mean

the  CFS is    correct.  if on the other hand     enso 34 is still rising  by  DEC 1     that says the warm  ENSO 3.4   ideas we are seeing on the last few runs of the IRI are correct

but for  ANYONE  to blindly assume  that because    the vast majority of  the model  data on these IRI plumes shows this  ....    it   MUST be correct .....without any testing or   verification  is     really  REALLY  piss  poor meteorology

how did  the  majority work of the model data  work out  there with Joaquin?
OR    the  "  certainty of  a warm winter in 2013-14  "   work out?  


 

That's right. But why buy the CFS over the multi-model ensemble (below)?

 

[DTWXRISK]

 2ND Reason  WHY the cfs   might   MIGHT     MIGHT   be onto to something

 

 

 

 

[scottmartin49]

 it is clear you   either didnt  read  what I posted or you are just waaay  too   fooking  stupid to follow it

first off   I did not   BUY    anything   -- all I did was  post the image   as an alternative 

 2nd  point you   a$$hole  I said  in the post above  3  times  IF IF IF

 

Now  you want back down    or do you want to tangle with me again? 

 

[JC-CT]

how did  the  majority work of the model data  work out  there with Joaquin?

 

About as well as going solely with NCEP model guidance worked out...

 

 

2ND Reason  WHY the cfs   might   MIGHT     MIGHT   be onto to something

 

 

 

1.jpg

 

2.jpg

 

 

I'm a layman so correct me if I'm wrong, but it sure looks to me like the first "peak" on those graphs is just a blip like those that occurred in both 97-98 and 82-83. It's hard for me to see two distinct peaks in 82-83 from that graph, either there are three or there is one. If this Nino peaked at the Dec/Jan line at 3.3 or so, it would appear on that graph like a very similar progression to 82-83 except a bit warmer and a month earlier. Granted, I'm just looking at squiggly lines on my computer screen.

[Tom]

It's always good to see DT back, winter is just around the corner

[DTWXRISK]

 JC  CT  well since I was  one for the  few mets  up and down the  east coast that   insisted that  Joaquin would NOT  hit
  the east coast 

 
About as well as going solely with NCEP model guidance worked out...
 
 

 

 

I'm a layman so correct me if I'm wrong, but it sure looks to me like the first "peak" on those graphs is just a blip like those that occurred in both 97-98 and 82-83. It's hard for me to see two distinct peaks in 82-83 from that graph, either there are three or there is one. If this Nino peaked at the Dec/Jan line at 3.3 or so, it would appear on that graph like a very similar progression to 82-83 except a bit warmer and a month earlier. Granted, I'm just looking at squiggly lines on my computer screen.