Absolute Humidity Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 WOW folks still jumping on that old song ? the drop off at the end of OCT was meaningless About as meaningless as canceling winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_plots.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_plots.html It seems from that graph that snowcover always increases quickly in Eurasia in October. By the way, what is their definition of Eurasia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 Too early to draw any conclusion from the above, plus we want to focus more on gains south of 60 North. If the forecast above for big gains pans out we can start cooking with gas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 Looking at the latest model data from Siberia we can see that a exceptionally favorable earlky winter pattern is developing which is likely to produce significant advances in snow cover over the next 10 to 14 days. In particular the European AND the GFS ENSEMBLES both show a very pronounced and powerful looking REX BLOCK developing in the 6 to 10 day over downtown Siberia. The development of this particular pattern in the Middle October is likely to cause a significant enhancement and rapid buildup of snow cover over most of Siberia. This first image shows the MEAN 500 mn pattern over the next four days. We can see one large powerful trough with a ULL ( Uppr level Low closed 500 mb Low) centered over northeastern jury a and southeastern Siberia that is moving towards the Kamchatka of peninsula and a second a large system leaving Central Western Russia and moving East through the Urals. R in between there is RIDGE of moderate magnitude. . The second image is the European ensemble valid for the 6-10 day period taking us to t October 20. The REX block pattern is clearly shown but I have highlighted the key features -- and let's be clear about this this is a massive REX BLOCK which has developed over the Siberia region of Asia. The ENSEMBLE mean shows enormous and very enhanced powerful RIDGE on the north coast of Asia that builds into the Asian side of the Arctic circle. Underneath and we have two large 500 mb closed Low that cover all of central and eastern Siberia. It's hard to imagine a more ideal pattern for the middle of October with respect to producing significant accumulating snow fall at a rapid pace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 BOOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 At 48 hours the 500 mb shows a large multi contoured closed upper Low and trough over Manchuria into the Sea of Japan. To the west there is a pronounced RIDGE over southern Siberia and downtown Mongolia However there is a short wave over central Siberia that appears to be diving southeast towards eastern Manchuria and the southeast Siberian Coast. This causes a powerful coastal storm to develop to the southwest of the Kamchatka peninsula. at 72 hrs OCT 13 the 500 mb shows two large upper lows and a broad deep trough covering all of southeastern and eastern Siberia with a new system coming in from the Urals. At the surface we can see two distinct areas of large low pressure on the Southeast Siberian Coast. At day 6 144hrs the 500mb shows the big system coming in from Central Russia heading into western Siberia along with a still large 500 Low and deep trough over eastern Siberia into Kamchatka peninsula. At 120 hours October 15 through October 18 --we can see a large deep Low over the Kamchatka peninsula and another system coming in from the Urals towards western Siberia. By the 18th the huge system over the Kamchatka peninsula has now moved towards the Bering sea but the next system coming in from Manchuria is rapidly intensify on the southeast coast of Siberia. Finally by day 10 we can clearly see the MASSIVE REX BLOCK dominating all of Siberia and a huge massive low pressure area again over the Kamchatka peninsula. The deep cyclonic flow is what the producing significant snow over much of Siberia and there is a rapidly intensify 144mb HIGH over western Siberia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 Great stuff Dave. Talking this dirty this early in the season seems wrong. Lol Let's hope the Euro is close to being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 Big gains already below 60 around the Ural's http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snow-cover/nh/20151009-20151010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 It seems from that graph that snowcover always increases quickly in Eurasia in October. By the way, what is their definition of Eurasia? Well yeah, it always does. Its a cool graph and all, but it is hardly surprising that an examination of the slope on any given year would be indicative a high rate of increase during the month of October. What would be more useful is a graph showing the rate of advance to the south of 60N over Eurasia (in October). That is the specific region the SAI is based on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 Admittedly anecdotal, but it seem to me from looking at that graph, coupled with DT's analysis, we may not be far off from the pace of last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 Not a good map. To much in eastern europe/russia and not advancing south. Reminds me of shades of 2011. Still has 2+ weeks to get its act together, if you care about this index. I'm not worried about what the map looks like, my point was that 2015 is near 2014 at this point on the graph, with a very snowy/cold pattern for Siberia looming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 Not a good map. To much in eastern europe/russia and not advancing south. Reminds me of shades of 2011. Still has 2+ weeks to get its act together, if you care about this index. Read DT's post, more is on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 In case anyone lost/forgot the link, here is the link to Cohen's bi-weekly updates, with the next due on Wednesday (10/14). Interesting the last paragraph mentions that NINO years usually have above normal Eurasia snow cover. https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 You really have no idea what the hell you are talking about do? Not a good map. To much in eastern europe/russia and not advancing south. Reminds me of shades of 2011. Still has 2+ weeks to get its act together, if you care about this index. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 13, 2015 Author Share Posted October 13, 2015 I am surprised at how well things are falling into place. Latest enso pics combined with expected snow cover growth suggest that we may once again have quite the winter. That said, I still would hedge normal at least for my area but I wouldn't be shocked at another big winter for mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 You really have no idea what the hell you are talking about do?No he doesn't and it is clear, based on all his nonsense posts, that he doesn't care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Compare 10/12/14 (first image) to 10/12/15 (second image). Most of the anomalies are displaced outside of Siberia...not sure what if anything that means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Very 02ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Compare 10/12/14 (first image) to 10/12/15 (second image). Most of the anomalies are displaced outside of Siberia...not sure what if anything that means. How do I tell which is the first image and which is the second... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 REMEMBER the key according to cohen is the rate of snow in crease and anomaiies from 60 N south towards the equator So.... this would be good Compare 10/12/14 (first image) to 10/12/15 (second image). Most of the anomalies are displaced outside of Siberia...not sure what if anything that means. e4SRs1.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Compare 10/12/14 (first image) to 10/12/15 (second image). Most of the anomalies are displaced outside of Siberia...not sure what if anything that means. e4SRs1.gif It's just fine. You want some snow in central and western areas too. But as the ridge north of Siberia sets up, should promote lower heights to the south and we will see central and eastern areas pick up snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 THIS LOOKS SIGNIFICANT TO ME .... The Black line I have drawn show a general line of leading edge of significant snow cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 doesnt suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 pamelaanderson goes to siberia ( if you dont see it focus and the 2 blue areas) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 pamelaanderson goes to siberia ( if you dont see it focus and the 2 blue areas) ecmwf_z500a_5d_asia_37.png nah, at her age now Dave, the troughs would be sagging much further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 How do I tell which is the first image and which is the second... My potato work Internet auto-crops gifs It's just fine. You want some snow in central and western areas too. But as the ridge north of Siberia sets up, should promote lower heights to the south and we will see central and eastern areas pick up snow. Thanks, was looking for legit feedback. Wish there were some geographical boundaries (LAT, LON?) that would help to better define the SAI area of interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 My potato work Internet auto-crops gifs Thanks, was looking for legit feedback. Wish there were some geographical boundaries (LAT, LON?) that would help to better define the SAI area of interest. It's 60N to the equator... 0 to 180 E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 It's 60N to the equator... 0 to 180 E Sweet, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.