weathafella Posted September 6, 2015 Share Posted September 6, 2015 It's early but I want to start knowing that we may have another week of ice melt with transient snow gains/losses. But we're at that point that we can begin to note the progress of snow advance and I've started this thread most often in the past 15 years so here we go! Today's picture hard linked so it won't change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted September 6, 2015 Share Posted September 6, 2015 Woo hoo! The end of summer is nigh! Thanks wxfella! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 7, 2015 Share Posted September 7, 2015 Awesome Fella! I'm not sure what to root for this year though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 7, 2015 Share Posted September 7, 2015 Its back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 7, 2015 Share Posted September 7, 2015 Great yearly thread. Let's make it a better one than last year's debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 7, 2015 Share Posted September 7, 2015 I did drink a Natural (Natty) Ice tonight not my favorite but my client likes it, and got me to thinking Icy cold snowy conditions bring them on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 7, 2015 Share Posted September 7, 2015 I don't have access to decent Euro maps, but this 10 day map off the freebie site looks like it should start to yield something in Asia. http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/medium/mean-sea-level-pressure-wind-speed-850-hpa-and-geopotential-500-hpa?area=Asia&step=240&relative_archive_date=2015090612¶meter=Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 7, 2015 Author Share Posted September 7, 2015 Great yearly thread. Let's make it a better one than last year's debacle. I'll take a repeat of last year..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 7, 2015 Share Posted September 7, 2015 I'll take a repeat of last year..... Yea, I have no idea what debacle he is referring to. December sucked, but the rest of winter was epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 7, 2015 Share Posted September 7, 2015 The northern fellas fared way better than us to the south. Also I think MariettaWx was talking about that the forecast for the AO was supposed to be negative which that helps the SE out a lot but the complete opposite happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 The northern fellas fared way better than us to the south. Also I think MariettaWx was talking about that the forecast for the AO was supposed to be negative which that helps the SE out a lot but the complete opposite happened. Yes sir, Eurasian snowcover and AO correlation. Big fail last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Yes sir, Eurasian snowcover and AO correlation. Big fail last year.Yeah big fail for sure. Also the year before last was not all that good. Maybe a blip? This year will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 GFS is consistently showing a cold shot over central Siberia with significant storminess around 9/13-9/16, which should be the first opportunity for meaningful snow cover gains in the Hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Yes sir, Eurasian snowcover and AO correlation. Big fail last year. SAI as well. I've been looking for Woolybears, but I think they all froze to death last winter- or migrated south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 SAI as well. I've been looking for Woolybears, but I think they all froze to death last winter- or migrated south! Saw one yesterday! Totally solid light brown. Myth: The more brown, the warmer the winter. UPDATE 2: Found another today! Totally black with just highlights of brown! WHAT DOES IT MEAN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 Snow up in Barrow today....first one of the season? (time sensitive link) http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/webcam-uaf-barrow-seaice-images/current/image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 Snow up in Barrow today....first one of the season? (time sensitive link) http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/webcam-uaf-barrow-seaice-images/current/image Fairbanks got a little bit last week or the week before I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 Been on an amazing run of winters here, and as much as I want to believe the strong el nino may bring a big slap in the face, the squirrels' enormous tails, the excessive acorn production, and the farmers almanac are trying to reel me in for yet another great winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Yes sir, Eurasian snowcover and AO correlation. Big fail last year. There were big losses in late October and early November, which along with that disruption of the polar vortex by that recurving Pacific typhoon (someone help me on the name?) may have put the screws to it pretty early on. Which brings us back to the question of exactly which time frame to monitor snow cover extent and advance? If anything, snow cover extent won out over snow advance last winter, still providing us with lots of cold air to work with instead of forcing -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 More fun to take a look at minimum Arctic sea ice extent right now before the Eurasian snow piles up. Losses are greater on the Pacific side, which may work in our favor this winter: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 There were big losses in late October and early November, which along with that disruption of the polar vortex by that recurving Pacific typhoon (someone help me on the name?) may have put the screws to it pretty early on. Which brings us back to the question of exactly which time frame to monitor snow cover extent and advance? If anything, snow cover extent won out over snow advance last winter, still providing us with lots of cold air to work with instead of forcing -AO. Nuri, and agreed on the rest. it will be interesting to see how it works out or doesn't work out this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 12, 2015 Share Posted September 12, 2015 There were big losses in late October and early November, which along with that disruption of the polar vortex by that recurving Pacific typhoon (someone help me on the name?) may have put the screws to it pretty early on. Which brings us back to the question of exactly which time frame to monitor snow cover extent and advance? If anything, snow cover extent won out over snow advance last winter, still providing us with lots of cold air to work with instead of forcing -AO.Maybe the deadline should be extended to the first 10 days of November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 12, 2015 Share Posted September 12, 2015 I think the fact that it ultimately did get cold(albeit late) last winter was a case of being right for the wrong reasons (as far as Mr. Cohen and SAI is concerned). I have not seen much, or any, evidence to suggest that last winter's cold period in the NE US had any correlation to the rate of snow advance in October. After all, the basis of his research is that the result of the Eurasian October snow advance allows for the negative phase of the AO to be predominant, and that this is the primary mechanism for cold air delivery into the US. Once again, that did not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 13, 2015 Share Posted September 13, 2015 Little increase! LITTLE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted September 13, 2015 Share Posted September 13, 2015 I think the fact that it ultimately did get cold(albeit late) last winter was a case of being right for the wrong reasons (as far as Mr. Cohen and SAI is concerned). I have not seen much, or any, evidence to suggest that last winter's cold period in the NE US had any correlation to the rate of snow advance in October. After all, the basis of his research is that the result of the Eurasian October snow advance allows for the negative phase of the AO to be predominant, and that this is the primary mechanism for cold air delivery into the US. Once again, that did not happen. I don't necessarily disagree, but what was the state of the stratospheric polar vortex last winter? Was it stronger or weaker than normal? If it was weaker, that would have aligned well with last year's SAI. The only connection that wouldn't have been made, in that case, would have been the (surface-)AO part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 13, 2015 Share Posted September 13, 2015 Fairbanks got their first snow cover today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 17, 2015 Author Share Posted September 17, 2015 It's early but I want to start knowing that we may have another week of ice melt with transient snow gains/losses. But we're at that point that we can begin to note the progress of snow advance and I've started this thread most often in the past 15 years so here we go! Today's picture hard linked so it won't change. image.jpg 10 days later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 10 days later... image.jpg not picking up Western US snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 21, 2015 Author Share Posted September 21, 2015 9/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 9/20 image.gif Not too far behind 2014. I would expect it to start picking soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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