Chinook Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 I just checked the SREF plumes for Myrtle Beach-- QPF total ranges from 0.53" to 4.90". Mean is 1.75-1.80". Lower SREF mean values for areas inland of Myrtle Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 We get QPF min'd with NAM... This looks like the Euro.The 12z showed Wilmington with 8.95" through Sunday morn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 GFS has QPF max up into central/No VA, practically skunks SC. It's like 09/10 all over, going to be a long winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 GFS has QPF max up into central/No VA, practically skunks SC. It's like 09/10 all over, going to be a long winter... Again, its the GFS. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Again, its the GFS. Just saying. And I'm willing to bet it will be right. The 18z GFS also brings the 90 degree heat back too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 And I'm willing to bet it will be right. The 18z GFS also brings the 90 degree heat back too.It hasn't been all summer , why would it start now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 It hasn't been all summer , why would it start now? Why does everyone here bearhug the GFS so much? If it was always right, we would be hotter than Death Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 24, 2015 Author Share Posted September 24, 2015 And I'm willing to bet it will be right. The 18z GFS also brings the 90 degree heat back too. 90 degrees in October ? That would be the first time in my lifetime lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 90 degrees in October ? That would be the first time in my lifetime lol. How old are you? 90's are not exactly uncommon in the south the first half of Oct...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 GFS has QPF max up into central/No VA, practically skunks SC. It's like 09/10 all over, going to be a long winter... I sure hope it's like 09/10, second best winter of my life in amounts of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Why does everyone here bearhug the GFS so much? If it was always right, we would be hotter than Death Valley. It actually shows 95-100 so I cut that by a few degrees to around 90-91 since it has been off by 7-9 degrees or so all summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 How old are you? 90's are not exactly uncommon in the south the first half of Oct...... He must not be old enough to remember October of 1986, because we had a string of 92-94 readings up to around the 10 of Oct that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Why does everyone here bearhug the GFS so much? If it was always right, we would be hotter than Death Valley.Some people just hug the model that goes against the majority of what people want to happen. It's usually the same ones that find the one model that shows rain, when the rest are showing snow and try to get a rise out of everybody rooting for snow. It's a good warm up for winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 It actually shows 95-100 so I cut that by a few degrees to around 90-91 since it has been off by 7-9 degrees or so all summer. I would cut at least 10 degrees off it actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 He must not be old enough to remember October of 1986, because we had a string of 92-94 readings up to around the 10 of Oct that year. It's not common, but the record highs in Greensboro for the first 12 days of October are all 90º or higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Some people just hug the model that goes against the majority of what people want to happen. It's usually the same ones that find the one model that shows rain, when the rest are showing snow and try to get a rise out of everybody rooting for snow. It's a good warm up for winter! In other words, trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 It's not common, but the record highs in Greensboro for the first 12 days of October are all 90º or higher. Columbia SC hit 88F just 3 days before Halloween last year. Of course it snowed just 4 days later. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 0z NAM was extra happy with over 4" for KCLT and over 5 for KAVL... GFS has finally joined the party to some extent (QPF tripled from 18z for some areas). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 This rain event is just the appetizer for the main event ! That will be moisture coming from the gulf disturbance , around mid-next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 06z GFS is way up for this area. From 1.33" to 3.51". Guess it's about time for observations instead of guesses. Hope everyone gets in on the action without any problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 This rain event is just the appetizer for the main event ! That will be moisture coming from the gulf disturbance , around mid-next week! I just saw that. That looks like it could bring even more rain. We may go from Drought to flooding. Fun times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Latest drought update: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 I saw that earlier and was surprised it didn't change all that much, despite having a dry week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Well the 12z NAM just pushed most of the precip north of NC......... just kidding. No it looks good at hour 36. Little hole near Greensboro but it looks like precip would be moving towards that area afterwards. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=036ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_036_precip_p36.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p36&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150924+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=036ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_036_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150924+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 From Brad P.'s Twitter feed: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Congrats Murphy nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 70/49. nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Getting there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Next week's 'gulf low' is showing over 3" for next Wednesday(9/30) here at kjnx per MeteoStar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Next week's 'gulf low' is showing over 3" for next Wednesday(9/30) here at kjnx per MeteoStar. Soccer games for the kids have been canceled for tomorrow. Supposed to make them up next week, but looks like that might not happen, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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