jshetley Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Farther north and drier. Upstate SC will end up dry with this system yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Had to stack straw bales in the pasture to try and keep the dirt from washing away. I'll be making the worlds largest mud pie this weekend. 4.0 for Moncure per the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Id never thought id see the day where we argue over who will get the most rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Id never thought id see the day where we argue over who will get the most rain.It's just a winter warm up and when your in a drought like you and I are in, rain is worth arguing about and has been about as scarce as winter storms in the SE! I'll be glad/lucky to get an inch after all this hype! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Farther north and drier. Upstate SC will end up dry with this system yet.WPC must be using a model "blend" , their map has 2.5-4" on their 5 day precip map this AM! GSP has 1.5-2" for most of our area and possibly double that in upslope areas! I think this coming in near the GA/SC coast , puts us in a prime spot for some solid rains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Any chance things will clear out in time to see the supermoon and eclipse Sunday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 From GSP this morning: .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH THE FCST FOR THEEND OF THE WEEK AS THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS BUILDING A CONSENSUSFOR PRECIPITATION STARTING ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAYACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. CHANGES WILL TAKE PLACE ON THURSDAY AS AWESTWARD-MOVING 850MB LOW MOVES ONSHORE ALONG THE SC/GA COAST IN THEMORNING AND BRINGS A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW TO BEAR ACROSS THECAROLINAS. THE 850MB U-FLOW IS SOMETHING ON THE ORDER OF NEARLYTHREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS TO THE NEGATIVE (EASTERLY) BY LATETHURSDAY. TO GO ALONG WITH THE MECHANICAL FORCING NEAR THE BLUERIDGE...THE MOVEMENT OF THE 500MB LOW WILL BRING DPVA ACROSS THEREGION FROM THE SE...WHILE UPPER DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD AS AJET STREAK LIFTS OUT OF THE UPPER TROF. EXPECT PRECIP TO SPREADWESTWARD THRU THURSDAY AND BECOME CONCENTRATED NEAR THE BLUE RIDGETHURSDAY NIGHT. THE DEEP MOIST FLOW PERSISTS THRU FRIDAY AND INTOFRIDAY NIGHT. WILL RAISE PRECIP PROBABILITY INTO THE LIKELY RANGEFOR MOST OF THE BLUE RIDGE/NC FOOTHILLS THRU THE REST OF THE PERIOD.EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ON THE TN BORDER INITIALLY WHERE DOWNSLOPE MIGHTKEEP RAIN AT BAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN ACROSS NE GEORGIA FRIDAYNIGHT WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR A DRY SLOT WRAPPING IN FROM THE SWMIGHT CUT DOWN ON PRECIP. CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A FEWCATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NWPIEDMONT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THECOMBINATION OF FORCING AND THE DURATION OF THE DEEP ATLANTICMOISTURE FEED SUGGEST A SOAKING RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON THEORDER OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...AND PERHAPS DOUBLE THAT IN THE UPSLOPEAREAS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND SE UPSLOPE PARTS OF THE BALSAMS. ATTHIS POINT...IT IS TOO EARLY TO ENTERTAIN A FLOOD WATCH...AS WEPREFER TO SEE SOME CONTINUITY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE BEFOREHAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Robert's on board with the rains too: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 23, 2015 Author Share Posted September 23, 2015 I love how Robert says a strong fetch off the Atlantic will soak GA soon, when the WPC is showing less than .25" in my area the next 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 I love how Robert says a strong fetch off the Atlantic will soak GA soon, when the WPC is showing less than .25" in my area the next 7 days. Depends on several things but the potential is there, this is the loop of the mess off the SE coast, plenty of moisture but with this setup some places are going to get more than others, and its hard to tell who and where that will be...that southern "blob" looks good actually decent little spin there..... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/97L/flash-rbtop-long.html http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=VAX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 I love how Robert says a strong fetch off the Atlantic will soak GA soon, when the WPC is showing less than .25" in my area the next 7 days. Well, Carrolton is one tiny speck of GA, located on the far west side of the state. I'm sure he doesn't mean that every inch of GA will have standing water 3 feet deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 NAM big totals for western parts of NC and bulk of SC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 It's just the NAM, but that does look nice. Hopefully the GFS will show something close to that soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 RAH's morning update... CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE INCREDIBLY AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME WITH PRECIPITATION AND THEIR SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN VIRTUALLY THROWN OUT AT THIS TIME. WITH MAIN SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION OFF THE COAST WOULD EXPECT THIS TO COME IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWER PRIOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 NAM and GFS both look decent to finally get some precip in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 WPC 7-day forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Nice little spinup off the coast of Florida... Animated... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/97L/flash-vis-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 NWS Raleigh just now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 It's just the NAM, but that does look nice. Hopefully the GFS will show something close to that soon. The GFS isn't the end all know all of all models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 WRAL Rainfall potential... WRAL Mike Maze shared their photo. 34 mins · WRAL Mike Maze Today is the first day of Fall and it had a breezy, cool feel to the day. Tomorrow through Sunday make sure you have your umbrellas handy and make sure a light jacket is available. We are about to see the evolution of a pattern we are famous for here in North Carolina where it's breezy, damp and chilly for days. Taking a look at the rain potential for the next five days gives you the idea we are in for a soaking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 I've been in LA the past few days and it was hot. I was kind of looking forward to 75 and sunny since it was like 95 the whole time I was here. Anyways NC/SC always seems to overperform in these types of setups so I wouldn't be surprised if we end up in the 2-3 inch range for most of the area when it's all said and done. The best part is this will be a long soaking rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Agree Burgertime... I do hope it comes down in moderation so more can soak in rather than run off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Amazing differences between GFS/EURO. GFS has precip max well into SW VA up in WVA and minimal over GSP. Euro has price max in SE NC with very little in WVA but still 1-3" in far SW VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 NAM has me in a 6" bullseye ! Yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 NAM has me in a 6" bullseye ! Yes please It'll trend north...just like your 48 hour snowstorms in the winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Brad Panovich Meteorologist added 2 new photos. 3 mins · We need the rain but even so it could come too fast at times and cause a flood threat late Thursday into Saturday. #cltwx #ncwx #scwx 2 Likes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 It'll trend north...just like your 48 hour snowstorms in the winter! We get QPF min'd with NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Haha don't we always? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 It'll trend north...just like your 48 hour snowstorms in the winter!Lol! True! This is just the appetizer for winter letdowns! Loca fox mets going with .60 total, lol!Only slightly different than all the models, smh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 I wouldn't put to much stock in the models precip max and min locations.....this event will be interesting but wont compare to the slopgyre we had back at the end of Sept 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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