FallsLake Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 We could use every drop of that rain eastern NC will get over upstate South Carolina. According to the GFS though, our area will get .25 at best right through day 16. i'm starting to think the southern US from Cal to the Carolinas will be very dry this fall and winter despite Elnino. I think this is common to be dry early in Fall during el ninos. Usually things get cranking from November onwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 06z this morning gives RDU 1.46" Thur morning through Fri morning, then just .08" the rest of the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 US National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC Just now · Latest 5-day Rainfall forecast showing heavy totals along and just off the coast. Five inches or more possible in places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 I dont even think 1993 was this dry. 1993 anal log in full effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 I think this is common to be dry early in Fall during el ninos. Usually things get cranking from November onwards. From what I read, things usually flip like a switch and go from really dry to wet in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 US National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC Just now · Latest 5-day Rainfall forecast showing heavy totals along and just off the coast. Five inches or more possible in places. Haven't we seen forecasts like this before this year only for it to turn out to be a lot less? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 1993 anal log in full effectLet's keep the anal log talk in the winter discussion, where it belongs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Retrograde in full effect, Captain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Any chance we could get some storms with this, or does it look like just rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 GFS QPF from Thur-Sun. Should be a fun weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 GFS QPF from Thur-Sun. Should be a fun weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Potential 5 days of rain... .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY..HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A HYBRID CAD PATTERN SETTING UP ALONG THE EAST COAST WHICH PROMISES TO PROVIDE SOME MUCH NEEDED SIGNIFICANT RAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON THE 300K THETA SURFACE...WITH INITIALLY PATCHY RAIN THURSDAY BECOMING WIDESPREAD ON FRIDAY AND LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL INCREASE POPS A NOTCH...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE RAISED FURTHER WITH ENSUING FORECASTS. THE POPS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE WEIGHTED HEAVIER IN THE EAST...BUT AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED ONE INCH EVEN IN THE FAR WESTERN CWFA GIVEN THE DURATION OF THE EVENT AND POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN AS UPPER SUPPORT FROM PERTURBATIONS IN THE MID LEVEL TROF LIFT NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL SHOW THE USUAL CLIMATOLOGICAL CAD PATTERN...GENERALLY RANGING FROM UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO MID 70S SOUTHEAST...WITH MINS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. STEADY RAIN WILL TAPER TO LINGERING PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ON MONDAY AS THE SUSTAINED COOL AIR ADVECTION IS CUT OFF AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ALLOWING THE SURFACE LOW TO LIFT OUT. TEMPS MONDAY SHOULD BE A SHADE HIGHER...MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS 75 TO 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 And the 12z Euro QPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Well, not only would we get five days of depressing rain during the time of the year when it is usually great to be outside, but we'll probably miss the lunar eclipse, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Well, not only would we get five days of depressing rain during the time of the year when it is usually great to be outside, but we'll probably miss the lunar eclipse, too. We need the rain, we avg roughly 5" of rain in Sept and we have under 1" so far. This weekend could catch us back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 We need the rain, we avg roughly 5" of rain in Sept and we have under 1" so far. This weekend could catch us back up. Here's the thing...I don't care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Here's the thing...I don't care.We don't care about soccer or tball games either! I'm going to take my .25 QPF the GFS gives me and be thankful! Some people enjoy lawns and gardens that don't look like a desert with tumbleweeds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 We don't care about soccer or tball games either! I'm going to take my .25 QPF the GFS gives me and be thankful! Some people enjoy lawns and gardens that don't look like a desert with tumbleweeds What kind of garden and lawn are you supposed to have in fall and winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 What kind of garden and lawn are you supposed to have in fall and winter?You can grow plenty of things in the fall: sweet potatoes, peas, lettuce , cilantro , garlic, and many others ! Flower wise: snapdragons, pansies, fall blooming camellias need water, violas, etc! And it's the best time of the year to plant trees and shrubs and your fescue lawn, if you have one, will look the best it ever will over the next 4-5 months. So we still need rain in fall and winter and even though deciduous trees and shrubs are dormant, they still need water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 We don't care about soccer or tball games either! I'm going to take my .25 QPF the GFS gives me and be thankful! Some people enjoy lawns and gardens that don't look like a desert with tumbleweeds Amen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 And the 12z Euro QPF... Man, only if this was winter and we had a nice cold high pressure anchored to the north..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 22, 2015 Author Share Posted September 22, 2015 And the 12z Euro QPF... No thanks. I'll pass. 7 days of rain amounting to a whopping 0.20". What a joke. Just give me sunshine if it's going to tease us like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Here's the thing...I don't care. And we don't care about T ball and soccer either. I heard California is nice and crispy dry right now. Might think about moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 We don't care about soccer or tball games either! I'm going to take my .25 QPF the GFS gives me and be thankful! Some people enjoy lawns and gardens that don't look like a desert with tumbleweeds Whats weird is the GFS gives me 0.25 inches of rain, while the Euro gives me half a foot of rain in the same time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Whats weird is the GFS gives me 0.25 inches of rain, while the Euro gives me half a foot of rain in the same time period. Hopefully we at least get something in the middle of those 2 models. That would still be between 1-2 inches of rain for both of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Hopefully we at least get something in the middle of those 2 models. That would still be between 1-2 inches of rain for both of us. More like 3-4 in my area down to the lowcountry. I am certainly with you, its been too dry for way too long. At least its alot cooler here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 They are predicting 4" to 5" here thru Sunday. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Really, 18z GFS? 4.84" through Sunday for RDU? At the same time, KJNX only gets 1.80". (heaviest appears to fall just N&W of here). Going to be a fun 5 days to follow and observe - that's for sure. Reminds me of a deformation band in a snowstorm. Even if it is 'just plain rain (Brick)', it's quite an interesting event through the weekend. Considering we've had NOTHING to observe all Summer, I'm going to enjoy watching this unfold --- or even fold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 More like 3-4 in my area down to the lowcountry. I am certainly with you, its been too dry for way too long. At least its alot cooler here today. From the 12z Euro run, it had a heavy slug of moisture tracking through the Midlands from the Atlantic to give the much higher numbers. Without that, it'd still pretty dry with normal light rain showers. Something tells me that the heavy won't verify on the operational run. The 12z EPS has a mean of under two inches through the period if that tells you anything. Of course, there are quite a few members around 2-3 inches within a few days... enough of them to guess that's about all we could hope for around CAE. Per 18z (I have technical issues with my provider) the GFS is around an inch or less for us here. If I had to give a number, I'd say 0.75-1.00 inch through this "wet period"..... and even that could be wishful thinking for some of us not in the right spots. Haven't had any real good rain imby for quite a while now... been seeing the rain close by.. just no cigar. Edit: on a side note.. i've been telling people that they might get sick of rain later on in the year with the El Nino. Hope it works out and we all end with a surplus. I'm still kinda down over last year's great analogs and overall a let down for most though... I don't trust anything currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 6z GFS -- 60 hour totals -- at hour 96: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_096_precip_p60.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=precip_p60&fhr=096&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150923+06+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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