mackerel_sky Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 I have a feeling that won't happen! That bullseye near the upstate will be .13, if that, after next 7 days! That moisture in the Atlantic is from possible tropical entity, and that would put our area in subsidence and little to no rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 US National Weather Service Boston MA 15 mins · The latest CPC outlook for October suggests our warm and dry pattern could continue. Great, here we go again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 18, 2015 Author Share Posted September 18, 2015 well its went from 0.50 to 0.25" for my area. Chances of rain Monday through Thursday and only 0.25" to show for it. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 18, 2015 Author Share Posted September 18, 2015 US National Weather Service Boston MA 15 mins · The latest CPC outlook for October suggests our warm and dry pattern could continue. warm, but not necessarily dry. It says EC for precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 well its went from 0.50 to 0.25" for my area. Chances of rain Monday through Thursday and only 0.25" to show for it. Wow. Thats 0.25 to 0.50 for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 18, 2015 Author Share Posted September 18, 2015 Thats 0.25 to 0.50 for your area. probably .35" for me. Not much considering I have a chance of rain all week. Its less than a 50% chance each day though, so I guess it's possible I don't see any rain t all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 warm, but not necessarily dry. It says EC for precip. Probably location-specific. That was out of the Boston office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 19, 2015 Share Posted September 19, 2015 Monday could possibly be rainy or not , guess we will see? And upper low prospects sound sucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 19, 2015 Author Share Posted September 19, 2015 Just saw the 3 month temp outlook from the NWS for Oct-Dec. Looks like a warm one for y'all on the east coast. Near normal in ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted September 19, 2015 Share Posted September 19, 2015 First week of fall coming up and we already have a battle between the GFS and Euro on the upper level low track. Significant differences between the track. Euro sends it into MS/AL, GFS takes it into VA promptly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 20, 2015 Share Posted September 20, 2015 Has anyone noticed how god awful the GFS has been with dew points? It might not matter now but later on down the road, that might be the difference in borderline winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted September 20, 2015 Share Posted September 20, 2015 It's about that time....http://highcountryhost.com/nc-high-country-fall-color-guide/ Conceived by Howard Neufeld and Michael Denslow Map Constructed by Michael Denslow This map above gives an estimation of the timing of fall color peaks for the various regions of North Carolina. If you have used our map in the past, you’ll see that we have added two new features to the mountain section of our fall color map: towns and scenic roads. We hope these new graphics help you orient yourself as you decide where to visit in the North Carolina Mountains during our fall foliage season. This map differs from most other such maps because it combines the effects of both elevation and latitude on fall color, whereas most other maps simply use elevation alone. We constructed the map using the following assumptions. First, we assumed that fall color would start earlier at higher elevations. We then figured (guessed!) that for each 1,000' increase in elevation, peak fall colors would occur about one week earlier, with the exception of those areas near the coast, where we divided the elevation into 500' sections. For the latitude effect, we used data from published papers suggesting that each degree of latitude north is equivalent to going up in elevation by about 200 m (656'). This means that if you were to compare 3,000' down in Murphy with 3,000' in northern Ashe County (which are about 2.5 degrees apart), it would be as if you were really at 4,640' in Ashe County, at least fall color peak-wise. In other words, the same elevation in the north is cooler than the same elevation in the south, which causes the vegetation to differ. The resultant cooler temperatures mean that peak fall colors will come earlier to those same elevations in the north than in the south. Thus, our map is among the first to take both elevation and latitude into consideration. However, it is only an approximation, and we would love to hear from any of you as to whether we have hit the fall color peak correctly or missed it. Over the next few years, we hope to "adjust" the map to better model the progression of fall colors throughout our state. Thanks to Michael Denslow of the Department of Biology at ASU for creating this graphic And from Fall Foilage Network: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 Robert at Wxsouth says it will be weeks before much rain falls in the southeast and that the drought will get worse. He also expects Texas to get back in a major drought. Basically no sign of the El Nino pattern anytime soon. He was calling for a wet flow for weeks, it never happened. It's really hard to take what he or any other subscription met says. They have to be sensationalist and it leads to busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 Has anyone noticed how god awful the GFS has been ..... Yesterday's 00z gave us .08" over the next 16 days. Today's 00z gives us 3.63". Yep - pretty awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 Has anyone noticed how god awful the GFS has been with dew points? It might not matter now but later on down the road, that might be the difference in borderline winter storms. Yeah its been horrible with that all summer, it was almost always 3-6 degrees to warm with temps but usually pretty close on DP's here in the east ( its a safe bet they are gonna be high lol) ..... on the other hand its been showing the "low" off the SE coast moving inland over the Carolinas for almost a week now against the grain of the other models and now all the other models have come to it....so it does have a rare win every now and again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 Yesterday should be our last day topping the 80 degree mark here in the Triad. Hopefully we can say the same for the 70's in about 2-3 weeks. Time to start paying attn to the northern pacific. How it shakes out and sets up over the next 8 weeks is gonna be a big piece to the puzzle in determining if we get hosed with pac air all winter (aka 97-98) or get the goodies el-nino has to offer without a pacific firehose flooding the conus (..09-10) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 Having to hope for a low pressure to retrograde from the Atlantic to bring us rain, is like looking for leprechauns and bigfeet and skunk apes ! Will believe it when I see it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 WxSouth is now saying we should get some good precip for a while. WxSouth Just now · A broad upper low will call the Southeast "home" for a long time. There will be a developing Atlantic fetch of moisture pushing inland this week, at times bringing batches of moisture well inland from Virginia, southward to Florida. As time goes by, several rounds of rain will get pushed in off the Atlantic, maybe hitting the Carolinas and Georgia pretty hard with very good rainfall totals by late week, and then the Gulf is completely open for business too, so we'll have a lot of moisture aiming for the Southeast for awhile. It looks unsettled and cooler. We will have to watch both the Atlantic just offshore, and in the Deep Gulf later on, for possible tropical systems that could add extra moisture, but that's a ways off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 Having to hope for a low pressure to retrograde from the Atlantic to bring us rain, is like looking for leprechauns and bigfeet and skunk apes ! Will believe it when I see it! Been bleak, this has been one of the driest stretches I remember over the past couple of years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 WxSouth is now saying we should get some good precip for a while. WxSouth Just now · A broad upper low will call the Southeast "home" for a long time. There will be a developing Atlantic fetch of moisture pushing inland this week, at times bringing batches of moisture well inland from Virginia, southward to Florida. As time goes by, several rounds of rain will get pushed in off the Atlantic, maybe hitting the Carolinas and Georgia pretty hard with very good rainfall totals by late week, and then the Gulf is completely open for business too, so we'll have a lot of moisture aiming for the Southeast for awhile. It looks unsettled and cooler. We will have to watch both the Atlantic just offshore, and in the Deep Gulf later on, for possible tropical systems that could add extra moisture, but that's a ways off. Ill believe that crap when i see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 Been bleak, this has been one of the driest stretches I remember over the past couple of years... I dont even think 1993 was this dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 I thought it was supposed to be dry for a long period of time?? That's what I read a week ago I believe !!? Now RAL and GSO and East, will likely see 1-3 inches atleast, through Sunday . I look for CLT to be the western edge of the heavy rain shield . I may have to travel to Durham this weekend, just to see rain!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 GFS went from 1.43" to .50" for this weekend between the 12z and 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 I thought it was supposed to be dry for a long period of time?? That's what I read a week ago I believe !!? Now RAL and GSO and East, will likely see 1-3 inches atleast, through Sunday . I look for CLT to be the western edge of the heavy rain shield . I may have to travel to Durham this weekend, just to see rain!? The deluge started a little early here. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 GFS went from 1.43" to .50" for this weekend between the 12z and 18z. Thats the GFS for you. Always changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Via NWS Boston... US National Weather Service Boston MA 1 hr · The last time much of our area received measurable rainfall was on September 13th. While its not a guarantee, its possible that we do not receive any measurable rainfall until October. Posted for the rainfall map, not their lack of rain in a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 I wouldnt mind some rain but not this much....this much means grass cutting and mosquitos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 I wouldnt mind some rain but not this much....this much means grass cutting and mosquitos p168i.gif Yeah, me too. I just turned 6 acres of dirt getting ready to plant. Going to be one heck of a mud pie. Timing is everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 It will be interesting to see how the potential CAD sets up for this weekend: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...AS OF 350 AM TUESDAY..INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF HYBRID CAD AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.THE MODELS INDICATE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A MERIDIONAL SOUTHERNSTREAM TROUGH ALOFT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE WEST-CENTRALGOM PER WV SATELLITE AND 00Z RAOB DATA WILL SEPARATE AND EVOLVE INTOA CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW OVER THE SE STATES THROUGH FRI. THIS LOW ISTHEN FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANSTHIS WEEKEND...IN RESPONSE TO THE RE-LOADING/RETROGRESSION OF THEMEAN TROUGH BY A KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO ROUND ASOUTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN MEXICAN RIDGE...EN ROUTE FROM THE BAJA OFCA THIS MORNING TO THE TX GULF COAST BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS SOUTHERNSTREAM EVOLUTION WILL OCCUR AT THE BASE OF A MID-UPPER RIDGEAXIS...IN REX BLOCK CONFIGURATION...ALONG 40 NORTH/LAT.THIS RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE DISPLACED SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTHTHAN MODEL GUIDANCE OF RECENT DAYS. SUCH A SCENARIO WILL OPEN THEDOOR FOR ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OFTHE RIDGE TO BE DRAWN ACROSS A COASTAL FRONT AND ATOP A RE-INFORCINGCANADIAN SURFACE HIGH...INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NC...CULMINATING IN A PROBABLE PROLONGED HYBRID DAMMING EVENT THAT WOULDPEAK EARLY THIS WEEKEND.INDEED...CENTRAL NC SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLY LOCATED IN A REGION OFPERSISTENT QG-FORCING FOR ASCENT OWING TO BOTH THE SLOWLYAPPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVELWARM (AND MOIST) ADVECTION REGIME...WHICH WILL YIELD A GOOD CHANCEOF RAIN SPREADING NORTH ACROSS NC THU AND THU NIGHT...THENCONTINUING IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE THROUGH MUCH OF THEWEEKEND...WITH HIGH TEMPS BELOW TO WELL BELOW AVG...PARTICULARLYOVER THE PIEDMONT...COURTESY OF THE EXPECTED CAD.THE PERSISTENT FORCING FOR ASCENT NEAR/ATOP THE COASTAL FRONT WILLFAVOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE NC/VA COAST; AND ONLY AFTER THEASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST...LATE SUN-MON...WOULD SKIES BRIGHTEN AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 I wouldnt mind some rain but not this much....this much means grass cutting and mosquitos p168i.gif We could use every drop of that rain eastern NC will get over upstate South Carolina. According to the GFS though, our area will get .25 at best right through day 16. i'm starting to think the southern US from Cal to the Carolinas will be very dry this fall and winter despite Elnino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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