Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 15, 2015 Author Share Posted September 15, 2015 12z GFS continues to show the next cold frontal passage at the day 5/6 range. Day 6 dew points (which looks great!): http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=09&model_dd=15&model_init_hh=12&fhour=144¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false unless you live in GA or AL and it looks like dp's in the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 unless you live in GA or AL and it looks like dp's in the 60s. It eventually pushes more SW. But southern GA and 3/4 of AL do not see the big drops. By day 7 there is better coverage SW but the air mass is not as cold/dry: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=09&model_dd=15&model_init_hh=12&fhour=174¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false The frontal passage acts just like a CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 15, 2015 Author Share Posted September 15, 2015 It eventually pushes more SW. But southern GA and 3/4 of AL do not see the big drops. By day 7 there is better coverage SW but the air mass is not as cold/dry: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=09&model_dd=15&model_init_hh=12&fhour=174¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false The frontal passage acts just like a CAD. Wow, are those 65-70 dewpoints into Northern Minnesota ? That would be pretty insane for late September ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 I didn't like the trends for each progressive el nino. But there were also some differences between the el ninos. Not sure what you mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 Been waiting for the models to start showing more "fall" like weather...see if EPS shows something similar. #GOAlowNino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 Figures it would flip to cold pool, just in time for winter! # WINTERFAIL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 Not sure what you mean. Looking at the last four strong el ninos, it looks like they have produced less and less snow totals (for certain areas like RDU) from the past to the present. But as others have stated there are a lot of other factors that made these el ninos snowy or snowless. I'm really pulling for some good blocking this year. Edit: We're definitely due for a strong el nino: http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 Looking at the last four strong el ninos, it looks like they have produced less and less snow totals (for certain areas like RDU) from the past to the present. But as others have stated there are a lot of other factors that made these el ninos snowy or snowless. I'm really pulling for some good blocking this year. Edit: We're definitely due for a strong el nino: http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm Got ya. Atleast it will bring some much needed moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 Looking at the last four strong el ninos, it looks like they have produced less and less snow totals (for certain areas like RDU) from the past to the present. But as others have stated there are a lot of other factors that made these el ninos snowy or snowless. I'm really pulling for some good blocking this year. Really just 98 was a fail although we got snow. Unless we get a volcanic eruption ala 91 we should be OK in at least seeing some flakes. SST looks to be much different this winter than 97/98 although we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 Really just 98 was a fail although we got snow. Unless we get a volcanic eruption ala 91 we should be OK in at least seeing some flakes. SST looks to be much different this winter than 97/98 although we will see. Looking at the past storms for 97/98 it looks like our area had some bad luck to go with the bad pattern. Look at page 13 (ha ha ..bad luck page). There were actually many events that effected western area(..much more) and eastern areas. http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter_wx/database.php?location_county=&StartYear=1969&StartMonth=01&StartDay=1&EndYear=2015&EndMonth=08&EndDay=1&Submit=Submit&page=13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 Looking at the last four strong el ninos, it looks like they have produced less and less snow totals (for certain areas like RDU) from the past to the present. But as others have stated there are a lot of other factors that made these el ninos snowy or snowless. I'm really pulling for some good blocking this year. Edit: We're definitely due for a strong el nino: http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm Blocking has been a unicorn the last couple of winters. Not sure why it's been so good in the summer and so awful in the winter, but it's hard to get too excited about the prospects of seeing it this winter. But like you, I hope we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 Blocking has been a unicorn the last couple of winters. Not sure why it's been so good in the summer and so awful in the winter, but it's hard to get too excited about the prospects of seeing it this winter. But like you, I hope we do. Yeah, we sure don't need blocking in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 Today's 00z GFS gives us .02" in the next 16 days. 06z GFS doubles that.... up to .04". 12z steals all that wetness, and shows 0.00" for the next 16... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 12z steals all that wetness, and shows 0.00" for the next 16... People still look at clown maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 I'm an amoeba, not a people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Robert at Wxsouth says it will be weeks before much rain falls in the southeast and that the drought will get worse. He also expects Texas to get back in a major drought. Basically no sign of the El Nino pattern anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Robert at Wxsouth says it will be weeks before much rain falls in the southeast and that the drought will get worse. He also expects Texas to get back in a major drought. Basically no sign of the El Nino pattern anytime soon. Big dry east coast ridging will do that. I would think come mid Oct we start seeing cooler/wetter pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Robert at Wxsouth says it will be weeks before much rain falls in the southeast and that the drought will get worse. He also expects Texas to get back in a major drought. Basically no sign of the El Nino pattern anytime soon.Surprised he isn't hyping the Euro ULL !? Long range models are always correct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 18z GFS smacks down with 0.09"!!! What's interesting about this run is that for the entire duration, the wind flow is from an Easterly component on all but one day. You'd think with that much onshore flow there would be some precip falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 16, 2015 Author Share Posted September 16, 2015 Robert at Wxsouth says it will be weeks before much rain falls in the southeast and that the drought will get worse. He also expects Texas to get back in a major drought. Basically no sign of the El Nino pattern anytime soon. Isnt a very dry fall a part of the El Nino pattern ? I've heard people say that strong El Nino's usually mean a very dry fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 16, 2015 Author Share Posted September 16, 2015 Big dry east coast ridging will do that. I would think come mid Oct we start seeing cooler/wetter pattern. A wetter pattern in Oct ? Oct is the driest month of the year. I'm not sure about in NC though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Big dry east coast ridging will do that. I would think come mid Oct we start seeing cooler/wetter pattern. I would love to know when this El nino plans to kick in. Im sick of the endless dry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 I would love to know when this El nino plans to kick in. Im sick of the endless dry weather.By the first of November , your backyard will be a swamp! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 By the first of November , your backyard will be a swamp! There is a lake in my backyard, so i will have a bigger lake by November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Big HP's coming down from Canada on the GFS/Euro day 8+...sign of things to come this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Looking torchy Saturday and Sunday ! Then next week is looking delightful and possibly wet!!? Will it truly rain , doubt it , but hopeful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Maybe some homebrew to give a few folks some h2o. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 A large area of disturbed weather extending from the southeastern Gulf of Mexico northeastward across Florida is associated with a broad surface trough interacting with an upper-level trough. This system is expected to move northeastward and spread heavy rains over portions of the Florida peninsula during the next day or two. A low pressure area could form over the southwestern Atlantic this weekend, and conditions there could become a little more conducive for tropical or subtropical cyclone development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 US National Weather Service Boston MA 15 mins · The latest CPC outlook for October suggests our warm and dry pattern could continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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