Brick Tamland Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 LOL. Brick is a trollbot. You should read the whole thing. The overall setup favors severe weather, but they say the models disagree on the timing and intensity. THOUGH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES REMAIN. TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE DIFFERENCES AND STILL RELATIVELY LARGE MODEL SPREAD FOR A DAY 2 FORECAST. WHILE THE OVERALL KINEMATICS AND THERMODYNAMICS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE...CONTINUED LARGER THAN AVG MODEL SPREAD REGARDING THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AS WELL AS QUESTIONS REGARDING THE DEGREE OF WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION OWING TO EARLY DAY MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER...LEND HIGHER THAN AVG FORECAST UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION SAT AFT-EVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 Quit cluttering up the threads with long quotes and AFD's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 12, 2015 Share Posted September 12, 2015 Soooooooo looking forward to this cool down this weekend!!!! Only problem is indeed the big warm up right back to where we are now. GSP looking at mid 80s over the next 2 weeks after that with lows in 60s. That is going to be absolutely torturous after this weekend, and not fallish in the least. Looking for that permanent cool down!! NWS local offices don't make forecasts that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 12, 2015 Share Posted September 12, 2015 Looking dry today, as usual! I'm glad I got my .6 inches of rain during the big wet! I will enjoy the cool air, but not the continued dryness of the next 10 days or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 12, 2015 Share Posted September 12, 2015 Looking dry today, as usual! I'm glad I got my .6 inches of rain during the big wet! I will enjoy the cool air, but not the continued dryness of the next 10 days or so Bad thing is we're going into the dryest part of the year. Not sure when the increase from el nino would typically start, but as you said, I do like the drop in temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 12, 2015 Share Posted September 12, 2015 Bad thing is we're going into the dryest part of the year. Not sure when the increase from el nino would typically start, but as you said, I do like the drop in temps.From what I've read about this coming niño , the flip to the wet pattern is sudden , usually the end of October, early Nov, then it's really , really wet, a complete 180! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 12, 2015 Share Posted September 12, 2015 From what I've read about this coming niño , the flip to the wet pattern is sudden , usually the end of October, early Nov, then it's really , really wet, a complete 180! I can only imagine the posts when this nino ends up being dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 12, 2015 Share Posted September 12, 2015 I can only imagine the posts when this nino ends up being dry Brick will be banninated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 12, 2015 Share Posted September 12, 2015 I don't care if it is dry until December when it really starts to count. And then I only care if it is cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted September 12, 2015 Share Posted September 12, 2015 I don't care if it is dry until December when it really starts to count. And then I only care if it is cold enough for snow. I find that hard to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 12, 2015 Share Posted September 12, 2015 I find that hard to believe. Unless there are storms or snow involved, I hate just plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 13, 2015 Share Posted September 13, 2015 Looks like no rain for atleast next 10-15 days! Can't wait! I can take the A/C savings and put the money torwards the water bill ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 12 GFS shows a backdoor front coming in at day 7. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=09&model_dd=14&model_init_hh=12&fhour=168¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 Unless there are storms or snow involved, I hate just plain rain. Then you are going to be in the depths of hell from Nov-Feb around here. You should move to the mountains, they are going to be digging out come this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 Then you are going to be in the depths of hell from Nov-Feb around here. You should move to the mountains, they are going to be digging out come this winter. Okay, Miss Cleo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 Okay, Miss Cleo. Sounds good Superfly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 Temps will rise this week, but man I can live with the warm-up: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 Temps will rise this week, but man I can live with the warm-up: Agreed, enjoy the sun while it lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 Then you are going to be in the depths of hell from Nov-Feb around here. You should move to the mountains, they are going to be digging out come this winter. Lol aint that the truth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 14, 2015 Author Share Posted September 14, 2015 If you go to the NWS website, on the main page it shows a map depicting what a typical El Nino is like for the US. It shows dry weather for the Ohio and TN Valley and also much of the deep south with wet weather from LA to Jacksonville. I guess the I-20 corridor is too far north to benefit from the rainfall El Nino brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 If you go to the NWS website, on the main page it shows a map depicting what a typical El Nino is like for the US. It shows dry weather for the Ohio and TN Valley and also much of the deep south with wet weather from LA to Jacksonville. I guess the I-20 corridor is too far north to benefit from the rainfall El Nino brings. HUH???? The Carolinas and a good part of GA have above normal rains during an El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 15, 2015 Author Share Posted September 15, 2015 HUH???? The Carolinas and a good part of GA have above normal rains during an El Nino. Go to noaa.gov and see what I'm talking about. It shows a big area of dry weather from Atlanta to Little Rock to Cincinnati and everywhere in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 http://www.weather.gov/ilm/Winter2015-2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 15, 2015 Author Share Posted September 15, 2015 http://www.weather.gov/ilm/Winter2015-2016 looks like EC for much of North GA, AL, TN in terms of precip for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 http://www.weather.gov/ilm/Winter2015-2016 I didn't like the trends for each progressive el nino. But there were also some differences between the el ninos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 Looks like we slowly get warmer the next five days, but then the cold front comes in on day 6 and we're back to pleasant temps. 6z GFS dew points day 6: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=09&model_dd=15&model_init_hh=06&fhour=156¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 Looks like we slowly get warmer the next five days, but then the cold front comes in on day 6 and we're back to pleasant temps. 6z GFS dew points day 6: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=09&model_dd=15&model_init_hh=06&fhour=156¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false The NC state fair rains will be coming soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 Today's 00z GFS gives us .02" in the next 16 days. 06z GFS doubles that.... up to .04". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 The NC state fair rains will be coming soon! But I do like that time of year. Seems like the State Fair is when we see the first sunny and 60s high temp days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 12z GFS continues to show the next cold frontal passage at the day 5/6 range. Day 6 dew points (which looks great!): http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=09&model_dd=15&model_init_hh=12&fhour=144¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.