Isopycnic Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Well, the GFS said around 6 inches for December 3. Too bad it is 14 days out. Can we start talking about the winter pattern yet?First storm thread of the season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 6 & 12z NAM both show another inch +/- this coming Sunday. GFS keeps the next system suppressed to the Gulf coast and Florida. Not looking good for NASCAR's last race weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Maybe we are just 1 month of ahead of 94....hmmm...maybe Fab Feb turns into Jamming January. I have to completely out as you called me Ji after I said the strat would fail us this winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 SINCE THE BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WETTER...HAVE BEEFED UP CLOUDINESS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ENCOMPASS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT SATURDAY EVENING...AND MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1ATE SATURDAY NIGHT-EARLY SUNDAY. IF THE ECMWF-NAM SOLUTION TRENDS VERIFY...MUCH HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY....ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF RALEIGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I'll start, warm and wet. Indeed First storm thread of the season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Ensembles are agreeing on a fairly dry next 10 days for central NC, then once we nino'd in early Dec we should see a more wetness settle in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 PNA looks to be definitely going positive in the LR. NAO and AO show little hope; but maybe very late they could be trying to go towards negative. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 PNA looks to be definitely going positive in the LR. NAO and AO show little hope; but maybe very late they could be trying to go towards negative. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml The strat is pushing around the PV in fact the GFS does show a partial split days 7-9 but reforms over Greeenland. That is a death knell for a -NAO/-AO but it's weakening so maybe a short term loss with a long term gain. The GEFS does keep the -EPO going this run post day 10, wonder if a icy situation arises first week of Dec for CAD areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 The strat is pushing around the PV in fact the GFS does show a partial split days 7-9 but reforms over Greeenland. That is a death knell for a -NAO/-AO but it's weakening so maybe a short term loss with a long term gain. The GEFS does keep the -EPO going this run post day 10, wonder if a icy situation arises first week of Dec for CAD areas. Newest runs continue to have the PNA go positive in the medium and LR. Also the AO now looks to go negative in the LR. Only thing not working is the NAO (..as usual). http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Point and click says sunny today. Don't think that's gonna happen. Nice rain storm for eastern SC and NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Big cold blast here! Currently 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Very sharp precip gradient on this current storm! Goes from 3.5" to .1 , in about 30 miles, on GFS over the Upstate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Very sharp precip gradient on this current storm! Goes from 3.5" to .1 , in about 30 miles, on GFS over the Upstate! lol - Mack that was a 9 day difference from post 791 to 792. That's worse than mid summer. (but) There are some good signs from the GFS this morning. From day 10 onward it looks like the pattern attempts to change to a more favorable configuration. The SE does not yet get into the cold air at day 16 but the overall look of the pattern is what we want to see at this range. Usually would not show day 16 but doing so just to focus on the overall pattern: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=384ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151201+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 lol - Mack that was a 9 day difference from post 791 to 792. That's worse than mid summer. (but) There are some good signs from the GFS this morning. From day 10 onward it looks like the pattern attempts to change to a more favorable configuration. The SE does not yet get into the cold air at day 16 but the overall look of the pattern is what we want to see at this range. Usually would not show day 16 but doing so just to focus on the overall pattern: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=384ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151201+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model The latest GFS run does look seasonal I guess, no real arctic outbreaks but very normal temps with highs in the 50's and lows generally in the 30's for most of the extended...certainly not a "torch" IMO..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 The latest GFS run does look seasonal I guess, no real arctic outbreaks but very normal temps with highs in the 50's and lows generally in the 30's for most of the extended...certainly not a "torch" IMO..... I agree. "If" we're looking at December being the warm month (compared to Jan & Feb being the cold), this is about the best we can hope for. When (if) we flip to a colder pattern current snow coverage could help with the cold air delivery. Most of Canada and a good potion of NW US is currently covered. If we can keep and even build on this it would help sustain future cold air outbreaks. **Years back I also read that a large western snow pack can help promote western high pressure; which helps to then funnel cold air down from western Canada. http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 12z GFS has a wild storm for next Wednesday. If that verified, lol, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 12z GFS has a wild storm for next Wednesday. If that verified, lol, wow. LOL...this is what we want, a deep cut off slowly tracking to our south that just rots away...except there is no cold air...#DecNinoFTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 ^ That'll be up in WI when next week gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 LOL...this is what we want, a deep cut off slowly tracking to our south that just rots away...except there is no cold air...#DecNinoFTLIt'll make it's own cold air, no worries! Historic bowling ball! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 As we discussed above the GFS (6z & 12z) would indicate that the medium and long range would not be a torch. It would be much closer to normal if not a little below normal. No real cold air or wintery threats but again not warm. If you can remember back to how the weather was last January; this could be a repeat. Basically dismal.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 As we discussed above the GFS (6z & 12z) would indicate that the medium and long range would not be a torch. It would be much closer to normal if not a little below normal. No real cold air or wintery threats but again not warm. If you can remember back to how the weather was last January; this could be a repeat. Basically dismal.... Agree. If it is not going to be stormy, then let it be warm. I hate near average temps and lots of clouds this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 RAH not buying into all the GFS is showing (996mb, 925 wind @ 67k, 2.9"+/- rain) just yet... THE 12Z GFS ANDEC ARE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE AND NOWBOTH ADVERTISE A CLOSE LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANSWITH A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST. NOT READY TO GET TOOAGGRESSIVE IN HIGHLIGHTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ESPECIALLY GIVENTHE PATTERN AND WITH ONLY A SMALL NUMBER OF THE EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERSSUGGESTING PRECIPITATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 ^ That'll be up in WI when next week gets here. I like that Goofy is bring them down here, even if for only a run, and now this one is much earlier in the run than the last try in this time frame. Just keep that up until it's a tad colder all around. A cut off ull, even if cold, would be entering shorts weather down here, lol. I had to turn the fan on last night. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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