mackerel_sky Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 lol nice. What's the time frame?Never Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Let's dial it up... Let me guess, another heavy rain event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 lol nice. What's the time frame? 11/30 - 12/1....pushing my chips all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 11/30 - 12/1....pushing my chips all in. Its happened before, just a little further east and 2 days later...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 11/30 - 12/1....pushing my chips all in.I'm not gambling on this winter , I have no chips! I'm just going to enjoy my frosty Thanksgiving and then let the torch blow! If you have no expectations, you have no dissapointment . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 What's the scale for the ensemble map? Is purple 4"? 6? Either way, looks like one sick storm. One can only hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase2211 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 The gfs has moisture for that time period. The moisture just comes through to early before the cold it was fairly close lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 11/30 - 12/1....pushing my chips all in. I am betting on the house side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Sun-Tues going to be very cold in the SE....highs in the 40's and lows in the 20's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Yeah low to mid 20's and maybe even some teens Raleigh west, should be the first sub 50 high for us in the east with full sun...... CMC much colder than the GFS which is mid to upper 20's everywhere the CMC is brrrrrr...CMC also has a pretty big storm for the Fri-Sun period after Thanksgiving where the latest GFS has nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 CMC has a storm and the Euro is hinting at one after Thanksgiving. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Local zone forecast doesn't match up to the models, or even what the AFD says... (RAH) Saturday Night And Sunday Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the lower 50s. Sunday Night Through Monday Night Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the upper 40s. THE COLDESTNIGHTS SHOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A HARD FREEZEAPPEARS LIKELY WITH WIDESPREAD MID 20S EXPECTED. DAILY HIGHS WILL BECOLDEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY (40S) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 CMC still honking the cold low temps sunday night hi temps Monday struggle to go above 40 the GFS gives the NW corner of NC some love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCummingWx93 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Downeast, FFC has me getting to about 52 on Monday, but your map shows about 43-44 here. Should that model be trusted or is it too cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Downeast, FFC has me getting to about 52 on Monday, but your map shows about 43-44 here. Should that model be trusted or is it too cold? Here is the GFS 18Z same time frame I would suspect if the model trend colder continues they will lower that temp for Monday remember we are talking 5 days out here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Downeast, FFC has me getting to about 52 on Monday, but your map shows about 43-44 here. Should that model be trusted or is it too cold?The CMC has a cold bias, I believe . It's not the first model I would look at for wintry precip or temps, but every once in awhile, it'll be right and lead the way with regards to snow, but it's a snowlovers model of choice , because it's always showing snow or ice, when no other model is! When someone says " the Canadian looks good, or gives me a foot" it's a sign of desperation 99% of the time! I could see upper 40s for you and me, with full sun, it's a nice shot of cold either way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 the GFS gives the NW corner of NC some love gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_44.png Wont happen. That precip is quantified. Cold following moisture sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Downeast, FFC has me getting to about 52 on Monday, but your map shows about 43-44 here. Should that model be trusted or is it too cold? You should always take 2m model temps with a grain of salt, if at all. They are derived from higher model levels and there are many things that can affect a sfc temp fcst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCummingWx93 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 The CMC has a cold bias, I believe . It's not the first model I would look at for wintry precip or temps, but every once in awhile, it'll be right and lead the way with regards to snow, but it's a snowlovers model of choice , because it's always showing snow or ice, when no other model is! When someone says " the Canadian looks good, or gives me a foot" it's a sign of desperation 99% of the time! I could see upper 40s for you and me, with full sun, it's a nice shot of cold either way! Well, I have yet to have a high below 50 so will be nice to see my first sub 50 with full sun! Cold nights too. Can't wait! Actually, I'm still even waiting on my first freeze which is crazy. My lowest has been 33 but I'm on a ridge, gotta love inversions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCummingWx93 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 You should always take 2m model temps with a grain of salt, if at all. They are derived from higher model levels and there are many things that can affect a sfc temp fcst. Such as downsloping I assume. If CAA isn't strong enough, NE GA down-wind of the mnts will be a good bit warmer, but I'm guessing the CAA with this cold shot will offset much if any downsloping that could occur. Would you concur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Such as downsloping I assume. If CAA isn't strong enough, NE GA down-wind of the mnts will be a good bit warmer, but I'm guessing the CAA with this cold shot will offset much if any downsloping that could occur. Would you concur? Llvl CAA and downsloping wont be much of a factor Mon it looks like. The thermal trof will be east of NE GA and the llvl wnds will be veering in good insol. Looks like a slowly modifying airmass throughout the day. Temps arnd 10 degrees below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 00z GFS looks Chilly and very wedgie for the CAD areas on Turkey Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 The cold shot is a nasty little one coming into the SE on Sun/Mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 How much for brick? Well, the GFS said around 6 inches for December 3. Too bad it is 14 days out. Can we start talking about the winter pattern yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Well, the GFS said around 6 inches for December 3. Too bad it is 14 days out. Can we start talking about the winter pattern yet? When are you starting the thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 If you use the highs and lows forecasted for today, we're at the 3rd warmest November of all time in Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 ^ Also, with the rain today, we're currently at 8.41" on the month which is the 2nd wettest November of all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 If the GFS is predicting snow 14 days out, you can pretty much ignore it. I'd be surprised if we see anything measurable until January 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 If you use the highs and lows forecasted for today, we're at the 3rd warmest November of all time in Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Well, the GFS said around 6 inches for December 3. Too bad it is 14 days out. Can we start talking about the winter pattern yet? I'll start, warm and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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