packbacker Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 This weekend for our first hard freeze , then a torch til April! Not sure we get below 30F this weekend. The latest EPS is interesting, it's trying to get things colder in the central part of the country day 10+ with ridging in the west but the pig +AO isn't helping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Not sure we get below 30F this weekend. The latest EPS is interesting, it's trying to get things colder in the central part of the country day 10+ with ridging in the west but the pig +AO isn't helping. NWS going with 29 and 26 here for Friday and Saturday night. Will be the 4th and 5th freeze of the fall so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 I've had frost 4 nights already. Albeit one of them was light.Even had a hard freeze one night. The pattern is getting ready to change late next week. Let's watch the direction it is evolving in as that will hint at how it's going to set up for the first half of December. I can see a trough carving out in the midsection of the countty the first few weeks of December then progressing east through Jan and Feb. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Big winds latter today. Good news is it will finish stripping what few leaves are left on the trees. Bad news hopefully ground has dried out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Maybe some upper 70's and possibly touch 80F next week, should be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 And days 10+ the central conus goes cold and it bleeds east...0z EPS was similiar for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Pack, check out the 12z euro strat plots on Wxbell. First time I've seen a nice elongation of the PV this fall. Most noticeable @ 30-50hpa. IF (and a really really big IF) that trend holds, I would assume that the persistent pattern in the high latitudes would begin to shift things a bit. It's no surprise the op shows a large displacement of cold air deep into TX d8-10. Probably overdone (and I really don't care either way) but we should keep an eye on the strat plots and see if things may be in for a shift or the perfect target shape continues. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Pack, check out the 12z euro strat plots on Wxbell. First time I've seen a nice elongation of the PV this fall. Most noticeable @ 30-50hpa. IF (and a really really big IF) that trend holds, I would assume that the persistent pattern in the high latitudes would begin to shift things a bit. It's no surprise the op shows a large displacement of cold air deep into TX d8-10. Probably overdone (and I really don't care either way) but we should keep an eye on the strat plots and see if things may be in for a shift or the perfect target shape continues. lol. Well it's a start and nice to see. Would love to see this thing pulverized over the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Well it's a start and nice to see. Would love to see this thing pulverized over the next few weeks. Yea, that's just it. We gotta start somewhere right? It's been a beast. Not uncommon of course but if we are going to see any type of decent pattern in Dec, that thing has got to take a few on the chin and maybe a couple kicks in the pill box for good measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Just going to miss a record high today at CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 -EPO starting to get cranking with troughing trying to build in the east...probably transient but might be a cool Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 18z GFS sure looks nice. Too bad it's the 300+ hours GFS lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 LOL - deleted my previous post. Had it in my mind that next week is Thanksgiving. Must be because I just bought the turkey this week Anyways, Wed night and Thur this coming week are still looking very wet. 12z GFS drops 1.5" +/- in the RDU area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase2211 Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 A little back side snow at the end of the run... A man can dream right Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 LOL - deleted my previous post. Had it in my mind that next week is Thanksgiving. Must be because I just bought the turkey this week Anyways, Wed night and Thur this coming week are still looking very wet. 12z GFS drops 1.5" +/- in the RDU area. Yep...wetness returns, the next few days should be very nice though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 The rpm model just showed a decent bullseye of 2-4" of rain for the Tues/Wed rain event , from about Greenville westward to the escarpment ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Cold near turkey day if the GFS is right. Widespread 15-20 below normal in the SE. NC would see lows mid 20's highs in the 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Cold near turkey day if the GFS is right. Widespread 15-20 below normal in the SE. NC would see lows mid 20's highs in the 40's. Would be nice to have some cold air for putting up the Christmas decorations the weekend after Thanksgiving. Makes getting into the Christmas mood easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Euro last night ran out to thanksgiving so we dont know the exact conditions for the day just yet but the day before was a 70 degree day across most of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Euro last night ran out to thanksgiving so we dont know the exact conditions for the day just yet but the day before was a 70 degree day across most of NC. Yeah. The models are vastly different and the GFS 06z ensemble disagrees with the cold and pumps a massive ridge I believe.There's lows throughout the SE on the 06z GFS in the 20's for a lot of folks. It's still something to watch given the current level of uncertainty. (Time Sensitive) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 November anomalies to end up warm like expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Indices are a little better today: PNA - Heads positive after a drop more negative AO - More of a negative trend in the LR than what was shown yesterday NAO - More runs split between negative and positive than yesterday http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Brad Panovich @wxbrad 9m9 minutes ago Long, Long Range look at Thanksgiving morning, shows a nice wedge set-up. Not very strong & still 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 If The Euro is right we'll be able to cook the Turkey outside next week and watch the west get buried in snow. Need the pna to get posotive by December 1 and stay there. The wedge is all that could save us, so Solak hopefully we can get one. That map is probably off the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Looks like a roller coaster ride this week. Highs in the 70s for Wednesday and close to 70 Thursday, with possible storms, and then might not get above 50 the start of next week before it warms up again. Getting things primed for winter. Any chance we could have some strong storms around here Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Looks like a roller coaster ride this week. Highs in the 70s for Wednesday and close to 70 Thursday, with possible storms, and then might not get above 50 the start of next week before it warms up again. Getting things primed for winter. Any chance we could have some strong storms around here Thursday? No. The wedge will stop the severe threat, for the central and western Carolinas , in my opinion ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Pack (or any wxbell subscriber), check out euro ens #39. LOL http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/yeps_members.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Pack (or any wxbell subscriber), check out euro ens #39. LOL http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/yeps_members.php Don't you mean Euro En$ #39? Haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Pack (or any wxbell subscriber), check out euro ens #39. LOL http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/yeps_members.php Let's dial it up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Let's dial it up... lol nice. What's the time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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