downeastnc Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Didn't expect this, when just yesterday they were expecting about 1/3" for the Monday 'event'. 359 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW MAY LEAD TOSOME MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS ONMONDAY. Our local point forecast now says... Monday Rain. High near 61. Northeast wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. Monday Night Rain. Low around 59. Northeast wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Trade ya lol, I think two days ago they had partly sunny for Monday and 30% chance showers for Tues....it also looks to be getting in here quicker that mainly after 11am bit for tomorrow seems slow watching the radar. Tonight A chance of rain, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. Northeast wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Monday Rain, mainly after 11am. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 66. Northeast wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Monday Night Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 63. East wind 6 to 11 mph becoming south after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Tuesday A chance of rain before 7am, then a chance of showers, mainly between 7am and 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. South wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Don't see a freeze fmby anytime soon! Atleast the next 10+ days! Gotta be some kind of record?? May see some upper 30s around here this weekend, but meh! I hope this warm November pays off in January, cause it sucks to have shorts on and windows open on Thanksgiving ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 They've removed the mid-late week precipitation from the forecast for this area. Next frontal passage is now expected to be dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 So much for fall being the best season for nice weather. It's been too rainy and cloudy for me. And I hope all this precip doesn't shut off when we get into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Well so far we have about .30-.40" of rain, its pretty windy out so the gauge is prolly a little on the low side and it has .27" in it......no where close to the 2-4" they where calling for last night and the radar doesnt scream huge totals either but I will wait till the surface low offshore passes before calling it a bust.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 9, 2015 Author Share Posted November 9, 2015 So much for fall being the best season for nice weather. It's been too rainy and cloudy for me. And I hope all this precip doesn't shut off when we get into winter. It would be kinda funny if our winter ends up being the kind of weather we typically have in fall ( sunny and dry). Maybe the impacts from El Nino are peaking early. I certainly don't expect any winter month to be as wet as November has been ( and October in some areas). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 It would be kinda funny if our winter ends up being the kind of weather we typically have in fall ( sunny and dry). Maybe the impacts from El Nino are peaking early. I certainly don't expect any winter month to be as wet as November has been ( and October in some areas). That's what I am worried about now. It would be unusual for this pattern to continue for months, but maybe it can with the El Nino. I guess it doesn't have to be as wet to still get good snow. But the more precip you have, the more chances you have of getting snow, too. I think what has been unusual is how long the precip sticks around when it does come, too. It usually stays around for 2 or 3 days before it dries out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Looks like we may get a 7-10 dry stretch starting tomorrow! We desperately need it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Officially the 5th wettest november in Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 It's been a 24 hr soaking here. This would look nice with some cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 9, 2015 Author Share Posted November 9, 2015 Looks like we may get a 7-10 dry stretch starting tomorrow! We desperately need it! Isnt it supposed to rain again Wed Night/Thurs ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Isnt it supposed to rain again Wed Night/Thurs ?Most likely will be a dry frontal passage here. Even if that happens, 1 day of rain out of 10, is ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Most likely will be a dry frontal passage here. Even if that happens, 1 day of rain out of 10, is ok Which is more normal for fall. It's been above normal so far for precip. That's why I worry about the winter being dry to even things out. But maybe the El Nino can keep the precip coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 RGEM punishing rains the next 24 hours over central NC..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 It's been a 24 hr soaking here. This would look nice with some cold air Interesting N-FL has been spared, wonder how much longer that lasts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Interesting N-FL has been spared, wonder how much longer that lasts....Until Jan, then they will be in low 40s and rain, Macon will be snow and ice, and 85 corridor, will have a cloud storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Not sure what to make of the long rang indices. NAO - Falls to near neutral and then averages near neutral for the LR. Scatters + & - runs with more - . AO - Falls towards neutral and then averages near neutral for LR. Big scattering + & - runs with more + . PNA - Continues to average near neutral with a turn towards positive in LR. So basically what do you get when everything is neutral? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Looks like we may get a week off from the rain. Interesting the daily SOI reading is positive for the first time it seems like forever. Active MJO, positive SOI and super strong Nino...what is going on. Not buying any sustained -AO for awhile, the PV is roid'ing up right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Looks like we may get a week off from the rain. Interesting the daily SOI reading is positive for the first time it seems like forever. Active MJO, positive SOI and super strong Nino...what is going on. Not buying any sustained -AO for awhile, the PV is roid'ing up right now. We were locked into an El Nino pattern in the tropics from July to mid-Oct...since then, there's been some disruption to that locked in pattern in the tropics...probably just a temporary deal, but we'll see. MJO Weekly Update covers it - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Nice snows ongoing across all the Rocky Mountain states. Tell you if you like to ski and got the finances then head to the southern rockies this year. It will be a banner year as well as the southern Sierra Nevada. As for our mtns jury is out. Not going to have up slopes blowing in continuously. The snows will come more from synoptic events this year. And get used to complaining about the magic blue 850 line never making it down south to meet all the moisture that's coming. It will hook up a couple times and have a good shot to put down a quality high qpf snowstorm for some. But this will be the year of freezing rain and sleet imo, espeacilly in my neck of the woods. There isn't a climo metric but greensboro will get 200 plus percent it's normal frzng rain drizzle sleet even though it may only avg slightly on eitheir side of normal snow wise. It's the nature of the pattern we will have. A good sign suporting my argument is the cads we have had already this year. Yesterday we stayed in the 40s all day with heavy rain. The HP'S want have any trouble sliding through the NE this year. And normal canadian air will work fine at the surface trapped up against the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Nice snows ongoing across all the Rocky Mountain states. Tell you if you like to ski and got the finances then head to the southern rockies this year. It will be a banner year as well as the southern Sierra Nevada. As for our mtns jury is out. Not going to have up slopes blowing in continuously. The snows will come more from synoptic events this year. And get used to complaining about the magic blue 850 line never making it down south to meet all the moisture that's coming. It will hook up a couple times and have a good shot to put down a quality high qpf snowstorm for some. But this will be the year of freezing rain and sleet imo, espeacilly in my neck of the woods. There isn't a climo metric but greensboro will get 200 plus percent it's normal frzng rain drizzle sleet even though it may only avg slightly on eitheir side of normal snow wise. It's the nature of the pattern we will have. A good sign suporting my argument is the cads we have had already this year. Yesterday we stayed in the 40s all day with heavy rain. The HP'S want have any trouble sliding through the NE this year. And normal canadian air will work fine at the surface trapped up against the mtns. I think this is a good assessment. The moisture will not be a problem but I just get the feeling that temps will be. The temps may well average below normal but it may just be due to the cloud and rain; the jury is still out on that. So far, we have had very little in the way of cold this fall; a decent shot in Sept, and just one good shot in Oct. This weekend will be our first shot in Nov. But most of us still have not seen that first freeze. Not so unusual for the 10th of Nov, but if we don't get it with this shot coming up it could be awhile. Per NOAA, the latest date of first freeze at GSP is Dec 14th. That could be flirted with if we don't see it with this next shot. Hopefully the Early Dec "flip" is on and we don't have to wait forever for some cold, but I think this winter, could disappoint if we don't get the jet stream to help us out (which will be a function of the Pacific and any blocking/lack of). I agree that this is feeling like more of an ice year than a snow year for us Lee folks and that is not nearly as much fun IMO. If we can get a little blocking, or those western ridges like WXsouth keeps hinting at then perhaps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Looks like torch city after this next cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Wsoc tv in Charlotte is telling people they could see flurries next week. Winter uncanceled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 The euro would be ideal in the 7 to 10 period with by far the coldest air of the country coming into the conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Freeze Sunday morning for large part of the central/western NC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Get ready for a wild weather week next week if the models are to be beleived. Monster HP coming down on the heels of a 990 lp rolling through the southern plains tex / ark region. Meanwhile today is perfect. Upper 50s with a little cool breeze under blue sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Freeze Sunday morning for large part of the central/western NC... would you expand that to include the rest of the SE? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 would you expand that to include the rest of the SE? Thanks Here's a good one... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015111112/gfs_T2m_seus_17.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Might see some 70's next week, should be very nice. So far through the first 10 days of Nov we (RDU) are +9F and only look to continue that the next 10 days. Central NC's avg highs for mid-Nov is around 60F with an average low of 40F or so. By beginning of Dec our avg highs are in the mid-50's and lows should be in the 30's. I wonder when we see our first hard freeze (below 30F) will be.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Might see some 70's next week, should be very nice. So far through the first 10 days of Nov we (RDU) are +9F and only look to continue that the next 10 days. Central NC's avg highs for mid-Nov is around 60F with an average low of 40F or so. By beginning of Dec our avg highs are in the mid-50's and lows should be in the 30's. I wonder when we see our first hard freeze (below 30F) will be....This weekend for our first hard freeze , then a torch til April! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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