Fall 2015 Pattern Discussion

[mackerel_sky]

It looks like the 18z GFS takes the big freeze for much of SC away, which is fine with me.

You mean a 300+ hour GFS run changed from run to run, surely you can't be serious !?

Will be alot of this 300+ hour arctic air chasing, right through March!

[FallsLake]

You mean a 300+ hour GFS run changed from run to run, surely you can't be serious !?

Will be alot of this 300+ hour arctic air chasing, right through March!

 

We've seen this in the past with the models; too fast to flip the pattern. Personally I'm hoping for a flip at Thanksgiving or a little afterwards. This would put us in a cold pattern at about the right time where it's possible for many people outside elevation to get a decent winter storm.

[FallsLake]

Indices look to get less hostel in the LR. AO and NAO dives to below readings. But, the PNA looks to stay slightly negative. I think the PNA is going to be huge(er) this year. It will help stop the flood of Pacific air into the continent. And with this strong el nino that is a big worry.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

[Met1985]

Indices look to get less hostel in the LR. AO and NAO dives to below readings. But, the PNA looks to stay slightly negative. I think the PNA is going to be huge(er) this year. It will help stop the flood of Pacific air into the continent. And with this strong el nino that is a big worry.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

Yeah this has been showing for several days now and it is good to see a consensus for the fall of the ao and nao. The pna will come I believe in a big way next month as things really ramp up.

[BullCityWx]

Already an inch of rain at CLT today which puts us at 4.15" for the month. We'd only need two more inches the rest of the month to get in the top 5 wettest Novembers. Also, we should be +9.3 for the month through 7 days(using some interpolation).

[snowlover91]

Indices look to get less hostel in the LR. AO and NAO dives to below readings. But, the PNA looks to stay slightly negative. I think the PNA is going to be huge(er) this year. It will help stop the flood of Pacific air into the continent. And with this strong el nino that is a big worry.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

I'm not worried at all about it. I fully expect it to remain unfavorable until late December or early January as the Nino begins breaking down. Until then expect a warm, predominately zonal flow with transient cold shots once in awhile. January is when it should turn favorable and give us the winter pattern we are hoping for! I see a lot of good analog comparisons for the type of weather we've seen thus far indicating things are on track and long range models seem to confirm the idea of warm November with no signs of that changing for December. The key to watch is how fast and when the El Niño begins weakening, that's when we will see the shift to colder weather and hopefully great snow/ice chances for everyone.

[max100]

I'm not worried at all about it. I fully expect it to remain unfavorable until late December or early January as the Nino begins breaking down. Until then expect a warm, predominately zonal flow with transient cold shots once in awhile. January is when it should turn favorable and give us the winter pattern we are hoping for! I see a lot of good analog comparisons for the type of weather we've seen thus far indicating things are on track and long range models seem to confirm the idea of warm November with no signs of that changing for December. The key to watch is how fast and when the El Niño begins weakening, that's when we will see the shift to colder weather and hopefully great snow/ice chances for everyone.

That sounds terrible in my opinion.  Not much of a winter.

[NCSNOW]

PNA holds the key this winter. Hate to sound like a broken record but if you want a indicie to be in our favor it's this one.

[griteater]

Already an inch of rain at CLT today which puts us at 4.15" for the month. We'd only need two more inches the rest of the month to get in the top 5 wettest Novembers. Also, we should be +9.3 for the month through 7 days(using some interpolation).

Warm everywhere so far

 

[BullCityWx]

Warm everywhere so far

 

 

It's pretty exceptional. Using MOS guidance for the next week, I averaged out CLT's average monthly temp as 58.67 by the 14th which would put it on course to be the 2nd warmest November of all time. 

[snowlover91]

That sounds terrible in my opinion. Not much of a winter.

Not really, the chances of getting good snows in November for most are pretty slim outside the mountains. Then December you can get some decent snows but most of our snow typically falls in January-February, the "heart" of winter. If pattern flips by early January we have a solid 6-8 weeks of a cold and stormy pattern. You rarely have "wall to wall" cold type winters where it's called November through February/March. Most of the time here in the south we get anywhere from 2-8 weeks of a good pattern, some years it's really short and others it can be much longer. If you remember recent years we've also seen most of our snow in late January and especially February. Patterns typically repeat and this one so far is playing out as expected for a cold pattern shift by January. I would love a white Christmas this year but those are rare in the south and December will be warm mostly.

[max100]

Not really, the chances of getting good snows in November for most are pretty slim outside the mountains. Then December you can get some decent snows but most of our snow typically falls in January-February, the "heart" of winter. If pattern flips by early January we have a solid 6-8 weeks of a cold and stormy pattern. You rarely have "wall to wall" cold type winters where it's called November through February/March. Most of the time here in the south we get anywhere from 2-8 weeks of a good pattern, some years it's really short and others it can be much longer. If you remember recent years we've also seen most of our snow in late January and especially February. Patterns typically repeat and this one so far is playing out as expected for a cold pattern shift by January. I would love a white Christmas this year but those are rare in the south and December will be warm mostly.

No one expect the higher elevations has had a freeze yet, at this rate it could be the latest freeze for many places ever recorded if what you are saying comes true.

[snowlover91]

No one expect the higher elevations has had a freeze yet, at this rate it could be the latest freeze for many places ever recorded if what you are saying comes true.

We will still have transient cold shots but a hard freeze may not occur until mid or late November based on this pattern and long range ensembles. GFS and Euro are hinting at a cold shot around the 14-17th timeframe but it's nothing impressive and may not be enough for a hard freeze outside the mountains. Outside that the long range looks to be a mainly zonal flow dominated by the Pacific jet. This would keep most of the cold up in the far north/Canada while we see weather like we have recently with 60s and 70s, storms and cloudy days.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Not really, the chances of getting good snows in November for most are pretty slim outside the mountains. Then December you can get some decent snows but most of our snow typically falls in January-February, the "heart" of winter. If pattern flips by early January we have a solid 6-8 weeks of a cold and stormy pattern. You rarely have "wall to wall" cold type winters where it's called November through February/March. Most of the time here in the south we get anywhere from 2-8 weeks of a good pattern, some years it's really short and others it can be much longer. If you remember recent years we've also seen most of our snow in late January and especially February. Patterns typically repeat and this one so far is playing out as expected for a cold pattern shift by January. I would love a white Christmas this year but those are rare in the south and December will be warm mostly.

I'm not sure I would consider February the heart of winter any more than December. After all, December is a colder month than February on average ! February is our warmest winter month.

[BullCityWx]

Given that this November looks like a near lock to finish at 55º or above as an average temperature, I looked at snowfall and temps for Decembers after Novembers with an average temp of 55 or above.

1890-1891    2”            42.9º
1896-1897    12.1”       41.6º
1902-1903    T             42.4º
1909-1910     3.4”        39.2º
1927-1928     1.3”        43.5º
1931-1932     0.2”        50.5º
1944-1945    12.4”      39.4º

1946-1947      1.3”      47.6º
1948-1949      0.6”      46.4º
1978-1979     15.3”    44.8
2001-2002     4.4”       48.3
2003-2004     14.5”     40.5

[Wow]

Given that this November looks like a near lock to finish at 55º or above as an average temperature, I looked at snowfall and temps for Decembers after Novembers with an average temp of 55 or above.

1890-1891    2”            42.9º

1896-1897    12.1”       41.6º

1902-1903    T             42.4º

1909-1910     3.4”        39.2º

1927-1928     1.3”        43.5º

1931-1932     0.2”        50.5º

1944-1945    12.4”      39.4º

1946-1947      1.3”      47.6º

1948-1949      0.6”      46.4º

1978-1979     15.3”    44.8

2001-2002     4.4”       48.3

2003-2004     14.5”     40.5

 

Pretty high standard deviation there.  Which is pretty much how it goes for every winter here.

 

Personally, I'm feeling good about this winter.  I can stare at analogs and probabilities all day much in the end I've just got to trust my gut.  Maybe it's the beer talking.

[BullCityWx]

Pretty high standard deviation there.  Which is pretty much how it goes for every winter here.

 

Personally, I'm feeling good about this winter.  I can stare at analogs and probabilities all day much in the end I've just got to trust my gut.  Maybe it's the beer talking.

 

Average monthly temp for DEC is 42. Looks like it pays to be at or below normal the following month after November if you want a big year. 

[strongwxnc]

No one expect the higher elevations has had a freeze yet, at this rate it could be the latest freeze for many places ever recorded if what you are saying comes true.

We had a low of 31 on10/19 here in the southern foothills. It was our first freeze in this area.

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[NC_hailstorm]

18z GFS coming in much wetter now for Monday,looking like the NAM.

Wet.

[Solak]

18z GFS coming in much wetter now for Monday,looking like the NAM.

Wet.

.80" for here

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like the fall severe season is starting up next week in the plains and Mississippi Valley. Wonder if we will see any action this month.

[FallsLake]

In the short(er) range it looks like we could see some freezing temps come this weekend:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=144ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_144_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151108+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

 

Longer range the GFS is not yet showing the flip were looking for but It's also not showing a torch.

[Solak]

Coastal swamp this coming week...

[Met1985]

In the short(er) range it looks like we could see some freezing temps come this weekend:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=144ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_144_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151108+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

Longer range the GFS is not yet showing the flip were looking for but It's also not showing a torch.

yeah it looks to cool down. I like the look of the ao and nao also. As for the long range gfs it is useless in my opinion. It changes every six hours.

[FallsLake]

yeah it looks to cool down. I like the look of the ao and nao also. As for the long range gfs it is useless in my opinion. It changes every six hours.

True (about GFS). I try to only look at the overall pattern it shows past day 10. But even then, don't look too hard.

[Solak]

The 06z and 12z NAM are both at or above 2.5" on the Mon/Tues event, and the 12z NAM 4km is over 3"! It's actually quite a setup evolving, with a gulf low, a stalled front, and a Bahamas low all part of the equation.

[Stormsfury]

The 06z and 12z NAM are both at or above 2.5" on the Mon/Tues event, and the 12z NAM 4km is over 3"! It's actually quite a setup evolving, with a gulf low, a stalled front, and a Bahamas low all part of the equation.

That Bahamas Low is quite likely to become a tropical cyclone and quite possible some tropical connection could get involved which, of course, would infuse the SE system with more moisture.

Already expecting another 2"-4" locally on top of the now almost 6" officially for KCHS for November.

Already gwtting close to KCHS all time wettest calendar year on record, making a run at back to back all time wettest months on record (already almost double the normal monthly rainfall average for NOV.)

[downeastnc]

Well I'm at my hunting club in eastern Beaufort Co and it's pretty much flooded already from the last week so another 1-3" would be rough. Looks a bit more like a dry period after it though and we will need it.

[Solak]

Didn't expect this, when just yesterday they were expecting about 1/3" for the Monday 'event'.

359 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW MAY LEAD TOSOME MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS ONMONDAY.

Our local point forecast now says...

Monday

Rain. High near 61. Northeast wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Monday Night

Rain. Low around 59. Northeast wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

[Solak]

GSP ---

 

247 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.



.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY...WITH
LOCAL RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE.