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Fall 2015 Pattern Discussion


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They didn't give us credit for the 2-3" we got the other day, though.  We gotta be pretty close to normal now.

 

I am sure we are, it's going to get ugly the next few weeks.  I would imagine we dry out in mid-Jan to end of Feb just as the cold starts trickling in.  Mosquito's are going to be insane in the spring.

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I am sure we are, it's going to get ugly the next few weeks. I would imagine we dry out in mid-Jan to end of Feb just as the cold starts trickling in. Mosquito's are going to be insane in the spring.

Mosquitos won't be too bad! We will have a couple of single-digit lows to kill them off, in between rain systems! :)
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Even with all this rain, central NC is still below normal for the past 3 months....SC is another story though.

I don't know what my 'normal' is supposed to be, but IMBY, I has 11.31" in that 3 month period. That's real close to 25% of our yearly average. Biggest problem during that time span was the extended periods of no or minimal rain for 2-3 weeks at a time.

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This photo is from the north slope of Alaska during mosquito season. Tell me again how a couple of single-digit lows will kill them off.

medium800.jpg

It will kill off all of the actual fliers! Down here now they are everywhere ! No freezing temps . I guess their larvae can make it? Not sure if that's even true, could larvae survive in water/puddles that are frozen solid (AK)?
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They are cold-blooded and prefer temperatures over 80 degrees. At temperatures less than 50 degrees, they shut down for the winter. The adult females of some species find holes where they wait for warmer weather, while others lay their eggs in freezing water and die. The eggs keep until the temperatures rise, and they can hatch.

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They are cold-blooded and prefer temperatures over 80 degrees. At temperatures less than 50 degrees, they shut down for the winter. The adult females of some species find holes where they wait for warmer weather, while others lay their eggs in freezing water and die. The eggs keep until the temperatures rise, and they can hatch.

I've had the worst mozzie infestation I've ever seen.  That guys feet look like the way they get on me and the animals from dawn to midnight.  I guess they sleep after midnight, don't know, but being down near zero the last two winters seems to have acted on them like radiation to ants in the desert.  I bought a fogger, and if I fog the two acres around the house, twice, I get some respite for a few hours, but that's about it.  No standing water, neighbors don't have the problem.  The only difference is I am covered up in trees and vegetation where everyone around me has cleared land.

  I've used maybe 20 cans of Off with the highest deet, and they still get all over you, just not as bad.  I located some 100% deet so I'm ordering a few bottles of that, but even with something to deter them you still have to swat them like exorcist flies just to see where you are going.  If I could get a hold of some ddt I wouldn't hesitate to use it...hook a pump sprayer to a hose going to my riding mower exhaust, and really make some clouds using diesel and ddt mixed.  T

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Coastal lows and caveats!!!

A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTEDTO DEVELOP OFF THE SE U.S. COAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...THENSLIDE NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE CAVEAT BEINGA POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN AND ITS INTERACTIONWITH THE COASTAL LOW. ALOFT...THE SHORTWAVE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVERTHE MIDWEST WILL PROGRESS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY.THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL S/W THAT EXTENDS INTOCENTRAL NC AND THE COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASINGPRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LOCATION...INTENSITY...AND DURATION WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW THE COASTAL LOW PROGRESSES.
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All this rain is going to make it hard to get up all the leaves that have fallen anytime soon.

 

Any chance we have some severe weather this weekend? Anytime it gets this warm in November like it is supposed to today and then we have a front coming through it makes me wonder about severe weather. November can be a big month for severe weather in NC.

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SPC....

 ...SUMMARY...   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND   EVENING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST   STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR ACROSS   THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY BUT NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED.
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It looks like Monday will be the season's first "cold" rain from CAD with temps possibly not getting out of the 40s in CAD favored areas of NE/EC GA. Forecast is for 53 or so but that will likely come early on with falling temps Monday afternoon. Gonna be cold with that wind too. Lots of wedges so far this fall. Hopefully the trend continues into winter.

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12z GFS has (well from my limited viewing) the first big winter look for late Nov. Again massive grain of salt but in the last few runs it's dropping a big PV down from Canada and keeps much of the south in the 30's. Probably NOT going to happen but fun to see that winter is indeed coming. 

That would be a great pattern. Looks like from day 12 onward would be be below normal temps for the SE. 

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12z GFS has (well from my limited viewing) the first big winter look for late Nov. Again massive grain of salt but in the last few runs it's dropping a big PV down from Canada and keeps much of the south in the 30's. Probably NOT going to happen but fun to see that winter is indeed coming. 

That would be great. The bugs are absolutely awful right now.

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All the hype I've heard all week" The sun is coming" "gonna make a run at 80", just wait till Friday. Well guess what ain't seen the sun all day. Rain coming Saturday, and big ol nice wedge coming Monday and possibly a LP riding the seaboard and putting down some high qpf early next week. And don't worry another front should barrel in late week setting off more rain. If overcast dreary days make you depressed you need to get to help fast cause you'll be in for a long 3 to 4 months.

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All the hype I've heard all week" The sun is coming" "gonna make a run at 80", just wait till Friday. Well guess what ain't seen the sun all day. Rain coming Saturday, and big ol nice wedge coming Monday and possibly a LP riding the seaboard and putting down some high qpf early next week. And don't worry another front should barrel in late week setting off more rain. If overcast dreary days make you depressed you need to get to help fast cause you'll be in for a long 3 to 4 months.

cloudy, dreary days over an extended period definitely make me depressed. I don't think its a coincidence that the sun finally came out today and I'm feeling much happier than the previous 5-7 days where it was cloudy and dreary.
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All the hype I've heard all week" The sun is coming" "gonna make a run at 80", just wait till Friday. Well guess what ain't seen the sun all day. Rain coming Saturday, and big ol nice wedge coming Monday and possibly a LP riding the seaboard and putting down some high qpf early next week. And don't worry another front should barrel in late week setting off more rain. If overcast dreary days make you depressed you need to get to help fast cause you'll be in for a long 3 to 4 months.

Welcome to English weather folks. 

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cloudy, dreary days over an extended period definitely make me depressed. I don't think its a coincidence that the sun finally came out today and I'm feeling much happier than the previous 5-7 days where it was cloudy and dreary.

only  a couple more hours of daylight remaining here, and no sun on the horizon here.

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only  a couple more hours of daylight remaining here, and no sun on the horizon here.

 

 

And now it's cloudy and dreary again and i'm once again feeling depressed. I think there's a strong correlation between sunshine and happiness, at least for me.

 

 

Same here. The local forecast was really off today. 

 

 

Looking forward to a bright warm afternoon! This morning we have a deck of low clouds in place that is producing some patchy drizzle. Expect those clouds to begin breaking up around lunchtime leaving us with a nice afternoon.

 

 

Still waiting for that bright afternoon.

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All the hype I've heard all week" The sun is coming" "gonna make a run at 80", just wait till Friday. Well guess what ain't seen the sun all day. Rain coming Saturday, and big ol nice wedge coming Monday and possibly a LP riding the seaboard and putting down some high qpf early next week. And don't worry another front should barrel in late week setting off more rain. If overcast dreary days make you depressed you need to get to help fast cause you'll be in for a long 3 to 4 months.

I saw the sun for 23 minutes today and patches of blue sky for 40 minutes . Sitting at 74. So I'm good! :)
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