NRVwxfan. Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 A good wedge kicks the SE ridges butt, everytime! The death ridge has taken an atomic chop, and now a freeze is possible next weekend, for those who have not seen one ! I had my doubts with a strong SE ridge during the present El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 I had my doubts with a strong SE ridge during the present El Nino.Never doubt the SE ridge! 2/3s of the eastern us, will torch this week, the wedge and easterly flow are saving us! Carrollton will probably flirt with 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 2, 2015 Author Share Posted November 2, 2015 Never doubt the SE ridge! 2/3s of the eastern us, will torch this week, the wedge and easterly flow are saving us! Carrollton will probably flirt with 80 Too much cloud cover for it to get that warm, but i may flirt with some records at night with temps close to 20 degrees above normal. According to accuweather, I won't even get my first freeze until the middle of December which is unheard of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Too much cloud cover for it to get that warm, but i may flirt with some records at night with temps close to 20 degrees above normal. According to accuweather, I won't even get my first freeze until the middle of December which is unheard of. Accuweathers forecasts are so very grossly inaccurate its not even funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Too much cloud cover for it to get that warm, but i may flirt with some records at night with temps close to 20 degrees above normal. According to accuweather, I won't even get my first freeze until the middle of December which is unheard of. We've explained to you, on numerous occasions, to not follow those forecasts. Do you have some sort of learning disability? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 12z Ni-res NAM. Looks about right with the radar returns currently. Currently getting shafted here really good. Only 0.05" so far today. And 8 hours later the shaft remains true. Constant light rain and/or drizzle all day though. Just not heavy. Fine with me Sent from my iPad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 And 8 hours later the shaft remains true. Constant light rain and/or drizzle all day though. Just not heavy. Fine with me Read Raleigh afd issued at 10:00. Heaviest rain for i77 corridor is tommorow afternoon. Mine will be in the a.m. then a possible lull before getting one last blow in Monday night. Sent from my iPad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 After years of struggle rain has finally located north central Ga. If it rains it rains at least an inch, pretty much since mid summer. I emptied out 2.1 around 5 pm, and it's been pouring off and on since. Hope it remembers where I am when the sleet and snow comes. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Models look to have nailed this event and the location of the heavy rain axis! Up to near 1.5" already and looks like another 1-2" easily today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 I hope the CMC is right temp wise next week, looks seasonable lows in the 30's highs in the 50's...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 5.6 in less then 30 hours. Hope to get some gom lows doing this come Jan and Feb. I don't really need rain, but I don't want it to stop. It's been since 99 that I've seen rains like the last 6 months or so. Funny how the micro climate switch can mean so much. For years Atl would get hammered, and I'd get little or nothing, summer, winter, not matter, and now the worm has turned once again, and if a train is coming, it will go right thru here everytime, and for years, and years, it always missed me. I could see my sleet in feet, if it will just keep this up, and blocking keeps it cold near the furnace Amazing how 40 or 50 miles can make such a difference when the microclimate, or terrain funnels, or moles, or something changes in the equation. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 4km says still some heavy rain the next couple of days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 4km says still some heavy rain the next couple of days... 6-7 for mby? Hmm, not sure about that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 According to the 06z GFS, I should have already picked up 1.44" this morning. The axis of of heavy rain on the model is about 200 miles West of real time precipitation. If it initialized that poorly, does that throw the entire run off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Seems we have been in a pattern since the start of Fall of having long stretches of dry weather followed by two or three days of rain in a row. When we do get rain, it seems to stick around for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Well you can throw out the long stretch's of dry weather. We should see some sun thurs and friday, friday being best day. Rain on saturday. May luck up late afternoon sunday, but a cold air damming event is coming Monday on into the new week. CHEERS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 I guess what I really meant is when we do get precip, it seems to stick around for a while. It's not dry for three days, then rain, then dry for two more days, then rain for a day. It's dry for a while, and then when the precip comes, it sticks around for 5 out of 7 days before we really dry out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Could get pretty wet early next week. This remnant moisture and a Wedge configuration setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Could get pretty wet early next week. This remnant moisture and a Wedge configuration setting up. That's quite a spread at 96 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Seems we have been in a pattern since the start of Fall of having long stretches of dry weather followed by two or three days of rain in a row. When we do get rain, it seems to stick around for a while. I guess what I really meant is when we do get precip, it seems to stick around for a while. It's not dry for three days, then rain, then dry for two more days, then rain for a day. It's dry for a while, and then when the precip comes, it sticks around for 5 out of 7 days before we really dry out again. I am in agreement; since the end of August with the slow moving low it has been a very unique pattern, it has been almost its own season. Hot temperatures were simply gone, while still prevalent and even above average in the Midwest. From the winter forecast thread `` This basin wide Nino strength levels will make forecasting the winter much tougher because it is so rare to see it and try to pigeon hole it just as another El Nino, it clearly is not `` Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 The 6z GFS would indicate that we stay in a relatively warm pattern going towards late month. There will be some cool down but the overall story is above normal temps. The one thing I like about this pattern is it allows locations to the north(Canada, and even northwestern US) to build snow cover. We all know why that's important. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=384&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151104+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=11&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=06&fhour=384¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 I am in agreement; since the end of August with the slow moving low it has been a very unique pattern, it has been almost its own season. Hot temperatures were simply gone, while still prevalent and even above average in the Midwest. From the winter forecast thread `` This basin wide Nino strength levels will make forecasting the winter much tougher because it is so rare to see it and try to pigeon hole it just as another El Nino, it clearly is not `` Now if we can just get these stretches of 3 or 4 days of precip during the winter. It seems a lot of times one reason we don't get snow here is the precip just doesn't stick around long. It comes and goes in a day. If we can get it to stick around more like we have since September, we could have more chances to get snow out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Now if we can just get these stretches of 3 or 4 days of precip during the winter. It seems a lot of times one reason we don't get snow here is the precip just doesn't stick around long. It comes and goes in a day. If we can get it to stick around more like we have since September, we could have more chances to get snow out of it. Actually our chances of winter weather are better with shorter duration systems( say less than 36 hrs) versus longer in 95% of the setups we get, a long moisture fetch also usually means warming aloft and that means 35 and rain. We need a strong anchored/slow moving high over the eastern GL or NE and then some sort of low coming up out of the GOM to get big snows here....I cant ever remember a storm that gave us snow off and on for 3 or 4 days......if we get a setup like we have had for the last 3-4 day in the winter its gonna rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 12z GFS for RDU.... 1" Saturday, 1.2" Mon night-Tues morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Hope we're not wasting all this precip in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 EPS keeps getting wetter and wetter for Sat-Tuesday...another multi-day big rain event coming. Not sure if this sun still exists or not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 EPS keeps getting wetter and wetter for Sat-Tuesday...another multi-day big rain event coming. Not sure if this sun still exists or not... We desperately need the rain; my ark is not quite off the ground yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Hope we're not wasting all this precip in November.Just warming up! Got 4 more months full of above normal RAIN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Even with all this rain, central NC is still below normal for the past 3 months....SC is another story though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Even with all this rain, central NC is still below normal for the past 3 months....SC is another story though. They didn't give us credit for the 2-3" we got the other day, though. We gotta be pretty close to normal now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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