griteater Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Trends with implications for the winter? Funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 The 06Z GFS prints out a really nice swath of moisture over the Sunday and Monday timeframe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 ^ Calc, that's going to be representative of several snowfall total maps this winter, I think, with maybe a little less on the SW end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Euro jumped north and has heaviest QPF into central VA...talk about a omen for the winter. #northtrendFTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Euro jumped north and has heaviest QPF into central VA...talk about a omen for the winter. #northtrendFTL And we're what within 24 hours now and we're seeing these massive jumps? That's ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 ^ Calc, that's going to be representative of several snowfall total maps this winter, I think, with maybe a little less on the SW end.That's the perfect track and swath ! Don't change a thing!? Verification will be another story! And who looks at the Euro 24 hrs out from go time!!? It's time to RAP and HRRR! Trick or treat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 The 06Z GFS prints out a really nice swath of moisture over the Sunday and Monday timeframe: Nice dump! IMHO, 1:1 ratio is the best we could do for this system though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 ^ Calc, that's going to be representative of several snowfall total maps this winter, I think, with maybe a little less on the SW end. Sounds good! I'm down with that. That's the perfect track and swath ! Don't change a thing!? Verification will be another story! And who looks at the Euro 24 hrs out from go time!!? It's time to RAP and HRRR! Trick or treat! Nobody looks at the Euro. Throw it out! Nice dump! IMHO, 1:1 ratio is the best we could do for this system though. Yep. Only 1:1 here this go around. Actually, probably more like 0.95:1. (We'll lose some to evaporation as it has moisten up the atmosphere!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 And we're what within 24 hours now and we're seeing these massive jumps? That's ridiculous. It was a bit surprising to see it shift so much to the north after several runs in a row being further south. However it looks like a clear outlier with the the 12z 4km/12km nam, 12z gfs, 12z rgem, and 0z uk with holding on to the same general area as earlier runs. (*edit*..add the 12z canadian and 12z uk) as well. 12z canadian, which was the only other model close to the euro has shifted way south*) So Model consensus really makes it look like the 85 corridor from atlanta to gso is the prime target area for heavy to excessive totals. fwiw, the models have a bit too far north with the heavier totals in the lower ms valley thanks to convection along the coastal areas. Will be interesting to see if this translates eastward with time as noted by ffc a few times. Regardless, sure looks likely there will be more flooding wherever that main area of precip sets up. These excessive rainfall events have been impressive this year that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 It was a bit surprising to see it shift so much to the north after several runs in a row being further south. However it looks like a clear outlier with the the 12z 4km/12km nam, 12z gfs, 12z rgem, and 0z uk with holding on to the same general area as earlier runs. (*edit*..add the 12z canadian and 12z uk) as well. 12z canadian, which was the only other model close to the euro has shifted way south*) So Model consensus really makes it look like the 85 corridor from atlanta to gso is the prime target area for heavy to excessive totals. fwiw, the models have a bit too far north with the heavier totals in the lower ms valley thanks to convection along the coastal areas. Will be interesting to see if this translates eastward with time as noted by ffc a few times. Regardless, sure looks likely there will be more flooding wherever that main area of precip sets up. These excessive rainfall events have been impressive this year that's for sure. So, it's the Euro vs the field again. If the Euro gets this right, I'm not going to even look at any other models this winter. Regarding convection, I think that could play an issue with rainfall totals. We'll see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Never doubt the NW trend.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 So, it's the Euro vs the field again. If the Euro gets this right, I'm not going to even look at any other models this winter. Regarding convection, I think that could play an issue with rainfall totals. We'll see.... Not that I care about 1" vs 3" of rain but the Euro did jump 300 miles NW with its 0z run. All the models have a good consensus with 85 corridor. We shall see if Euros 0z run was a blip. If this was a winter storm we do know how this would end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 12z GFS continues N&W of here as well for the heavier axis of precip. 2.21" for my airport at KJNX, 3.79" for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 12z hi-res GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 12z hi-res GFS North trend continuing! Euro is king! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Never doubt the NW trend.... except when there isn't any. North trend continuing! Euro is king! um no. the 12z gfs is more or less identical to it's prior few runs with the axis of heavy rains. Any difference is in the noise level range. 12z euro shifted back south. It's just a hair further north than the gfs and the overall consensus and not quite as far south as it's prior runs but pretty close. Overall it's back in agreement with the rest of the modeling. So in this case the euro trended toward the other guidance, not the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 except when there isn't any. um no. the 12z gfs is more or less identical to it's prior few runs with the axis of heavy rains. Any difference is in the noise level range. 12z euro shifted back south. It's just a hair further north than the gfs and the overall consensus and not quite as far south as it's prior runs but pretty close. Overall it's back in agreement with the rest of the modeling. So in this case the euro trended toward the other guidance, not the other way around. It looks to me that the hi res GFS , has a more SW to NE orientation, the regular runs had a more WSW to ENE orientation , is whats I was basing my comment on! I was in the heart of the heavy band, now I'm on the very S edge with the hi res run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 except when there isn't any. um no. the 12z gfs is more or less identical to it's prior few runs with the axis of heavy rains. Any difference is in the noise level range. 12z euro shifted back south. It's just a hair further north than the gfs and the overall consensus and not quite as far south as it's prior runs but pretty close. Overall it's back in agreement with the rest of the modeling. So in this case the euro trended toward the other guidance, not the other way around. Right, which is never. At least here in the south. Especially in the winter. It's about as sure as 5PM today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Local NWS forecast has ramped up the amounts here for Sunday night/Mon/Mon night... 1/4 - 1/2"; 1 to 2", 1/2-3/4" for the 3 periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 18Z NAM waaaaaay west. Folks, you just can't buck the ole NW trend, no matter how hard you can deny it. Sometimes the NW trend helps you, sometimes it bites you. But you can't deny it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 18Z NAM waaaaaay west. Folks, you just can't buck the ole NW trend, no matter how hard you can deny it. Sometimes the NW trend helps you, sometimes it bites you. But you can't deny it.Yeah, I'm gonna need Columbia to be in the bullseye 2 days out this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 18Z 4K NAM doesn't appear to be too out of line with most recent runs. I don't see a significant westward shift. 18Z: 12Z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Damn bullseye over mby. Looks to be 3-4" incoming. Btw this is Mariettawx, this is my new handle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 18z GFS gives Raleigh(RDU) 4.01". 18z NAM ~ 0.88" It's either going to be wet, or really wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 18z GFS gives Raleigh(RDU) 4.01". 18z NAM ~ 0.88" It's either going to be wet, or really wet. Never trust the NAM with QPF.......unless it's showing the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Damn bullseye over mby. Looks to be 3-4" incoming. Btw this is Mariettawx, this is my new handle. I recognized the sunbathing Olaf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 18Z GFS looks more impressive with regards to QPF than does 18Z NAM. But both are wet, wet, wet for the western 2/3 of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCummingWx93 Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 North trend continuing! Euro is king! That furthest north X in Georgia is right over my county. Bring on more rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 GSP continues to ramp up the forecasted totals as we get nearer and nearer to the event: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 hi res 18z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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