BlueRidgeFolklore Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 I do not have the Wx background or scientific knowledge that a lot of you do, and I have only been here following weather for a handful of years but I do have my experiences and will add this. The most prominent Nino winter for me was the 2009-2010 winter, because I got to witness the potential firsthand when I was stationed up at Fort Meade. I know Fort Meade and the South are very diverse but I do think the meteorological trends of the Mid-Atlantic and Mid-South are much more comparable than say other regions. Anyway, I remember it being a scorcher in November. Seeing you guys discussing a hot Noevember gave me the hankering to research it, so today I looked up every single historical temperature reading for NOV 2009, recorded at KBWI. On average, it was 4-8 degrees above normal, all the way into the first week of December. Back then I remember a sudden switch going into the 2nd week of December. The temperatures went 4-8 degrees below normal and by 20DEC2009, I had 2 feet of snow on the ground at my house from the first of a few blizzards that winter. Everybody remembers 'Snowpacolypse and Snowmagedden' now. We totaled nearly 100" at my house on the year for a region that only averaged in the 30's. Back then I remember researching the winter forecasts in the fall and coming across Joe Bastardi when he was with Accuweather, and his winter forecast for that winter has always stuck with me because he was right on the money. I now know that plenty of people were right on the money but I didn't back then. Outside of the local mountain folklore and farmers almanac that I grew up with, I didn't know a thing a about this forum, Wx blogs, or any educated insight into weather forecasting. So with all that being said, bring on the warm November and subsequent Nino winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Well, the AO has been negative all summer, so we need about 6 months worth of positive now to balance that out. We'll have our typical antiblocking winter and like it.Rubberband ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Could we have some strong storms today? THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREADCENTRAL NC FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THESTRONGEST OF WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TODAMAGING WIND GUSTS...OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. AN ADDITIONAL BANDOR TWO OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERNCAROLINAS LATER TODAY...THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THISAFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OFPRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 More rain next Monday/Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 More rain next Monday/Tuesday. I like the pattern right now. If we can keep it going into January, this board will be very happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 I believe it is! As Brick would say " We don't want to Waste the cold air"! 20 degrees below normal, won't get you squat right now! Save the 20 degree below normal blasts of air for Dec, Jan, Feb!!!! ^^^Yep we want a warm pattern, but it's going to be hard to stomach going into November. The cold weenie inside all of us wants cold now. When I look at the long rang I immediately start wishing/willing the 850 temps to plunge towards the SE. One thing to look out for in November if it gets warm will be the fall severe weather period we sometimes get here, especially in NC. Seems a lot of times if it gets warm in November and then a cold front comes through, we get a round of severe weather. Usually happens the week of Thanksgiving around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 This was posted from JBs Twitter site. It's the Brazilian model output for Atlanta. This one prominent thing other than snow is the warm November signature and then a turn to cold at the first of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Another 1-3" inches of rain for alot of people on Sunday and Monday ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 29, 2015 Author Share Posted October 29, 2015 Another 1-3" inches of rain for alot of people on Sunday and Monday ! Saturday looks wet too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Another 1-3" inches of rain for alot of people on Sunday and Monday ! Nuts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 RAH this afternoon... ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THE LATEST GFS PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD VALID DURING SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH FEATURES A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE WAVE...ALONG WITH THE NOSE OF A 50+ KT LLJ COUPLED WITH 50+ KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...ALL SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS DURING THAT TIME. THERE'S STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE PATTERN TO CHANGE...BUT DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING TABS ON AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Saturday looks wet tooGA is not included! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 GA is not included! Yeah it should be dry here through the evening on Saturday. It'll be the warmest trick or treating we've had in some years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Yeah it should be dry here through the evening on Saturday. It'll be the warmest trick or treating we've had in some years. Awesome. I can put on my speedos and a collar and go as a shar pei. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 mid 70's for the foreseeable future!! I can handle that! Shudder to think about what the rest of the winter will be like. Everything must even out eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 The 6z GFS looks very active through the entire period. I can't see the QPF totals from the Euro, but the GFS looks to give parts of the area a robust amount of rain with this first system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 h-res GFS showing 8" over central GA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 ^ Wow....nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 ^ Wow....nice! Even the ensembles are crazy high, these cut-offs have some juice to them. This is a dying ull too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Euro goes big too. This ull stays stronger each run it seems... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Euro goes big too. This ull stays stronger each run it seems... Trends with implications for the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Trends with implications for the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Trends with implications for the winter? Yeah, only 1/2 inch for Carrollton ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Yeah, only 1/2 inch for Carrollton ! And -3 for Shetleyville! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 30, 2015 Author Share Posted October 30, 2015 Yeah, only 1/2 inch for Carrollton ! hey I'll take it. That's a 1/2 inch more than I had last winter ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 30, 2015 Author Share Posted October 30, 2015 FFC mentions an MCS forming in the western gulf and say that it could potentially shut off moisture supply for GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 FFC mentions an MCS forming in the western gulf and say that it could potentially shut off moisture supply for GA. Trends with implications for the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 HPC says... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 And -3 for Shetleyville! We have been doing great lately. We had 2.25 out of this last system and are over 10 for this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 I had around 2 or so for the last system, and up to 26" for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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