packbacker Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Wet the next few days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 12z run still very wet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 What happened to the Halloweenpocalypse storm next weekend , that some were speculating about? Just a nice warm up for winter model watching!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 What happened to the Halloweenpocalypse storm next weekend , that some were speculating about? Just a nice warm up for winter model watchingcasting!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 What happened to the Halloweenpocalypse storm next weekend , that some were speculating about? Just a nice warm up for winter model watching!? No H'ween storm; no more listening to me saying how a H'ween storm screws the rest of winter .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 What happened to the Halloweenpocalypse storm next weekend , that some were speculating about? Just a nice warm up for winter model watchingcasting!?hallo-weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 No H'ween storm; no more listening to me saying how a H'ween storm screws the rest of winter .... No man, after last years dumpster fire of a winter, I'm a believer! Not one sleet pellet of flake from Nov 2-Feb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 What happened to the Halloweenpocalypse storm next weekend , that some were speculating about? Just a nice warm up for winter model watchingcasting!?What's your prediction for this 2-3 day event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 What's your prediction for this 2-3 day event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Halloween looking good. It's one of the few times that I wish for nice weather: LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH ABUNDANTSUNSHINE ARE ON TAP THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THEWEST. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S. CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEARSKIES BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 RGEM looks a little overdone the next couple of days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 0z GFS says no frost/freeze until at least day 14. If it doesn't happen then it will be (for many) a month or more between first freeze and second freeze. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=10&model_dd=27&model_init_hh=00&fhour=348¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 0z GFS says no frost/freeze until at least day 14. If it doesn't happen then it will be (for many) a month or more between first freeze and second freeze. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=10&model_dd=27&model_init_hh=00&fhour=348¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false It'll frost in the rural areas this weekend in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 0z GFS says no frost/freeze until at least day 14. If it doesn't happen then it will be (for many) a month or more between first freeze and second freeze. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=10&model_dd=27&model_init_hh=00&fhour=348¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false We will push 80F for several days, will need to turn the AC back on. That's always a good omen, isn't it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 We will push 80F for several days, will need to turn the AC back on. That's always a good omen, isn't it....I believe it is! As Brick would say " We don't want to Waste the cold air"! 20 degrees below normal, won't get you squat right now! Save the 20 degree below normal blasts of air for Dec, Jan, Feb!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 ^^^Yep we want a warm pattern, but it's going to be hard to stomach going into November. The cold weenie inside all of us wants cold now. When I look at the long rang I immediately start wishing/willing the 850 temps to plunge towards the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 It'll frost in the rural areas this weekend in NC Modeled dew points will need to drop some more; which that did happen with the last frost/freeze episode (as we got closer). http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=10&model_dd=27&model_init_hh=06&fhour=96¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 I believe it is! As Brick would say " We don't want to Waste the cold air"! 20 degrees below normal, won't get you squat right now! Save the 20 degree below normal blasts of air for Dec, Jan, Feb!!!! LOL...we shall see. From Mike V. on twitter...roasty. 11-15 is just as warm. The weeklies were mega +AO and kept roasting thru week 3. Week 4 looks to be neutral for temps as we get into a more typical nino like pattern but still +AO. It takes us to end of Nov so would like to see pac low setup and a -AO develop in early Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 LOL...we shall see. From Mike V. on twitter...roasty. 11-15 is just as warm. The weeklies were mega +AO and kept roasting thru week 3. Week 4 looks to be neutral for temps as we get into a more typical nino like pattern but still +AO. It takes us to end of Nov so would like to see pac low setup and a -AO develop in early Dec. That would be the optimal outcome. Hopefully we start seeing (in long range models) the early December pattern flip by the middle of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Big spike positive for the AO for the next couple of weeks. NAO goes strongly positive and then falls towards neutral. PNA goes negative and then averages near neutral. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Well, the AO has been negative all summer, so we need about 6 months worth of positive now to balance that out. We'll have our typical antiblocking winter and like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 We can get the nao to go negative the next 5 months, it want mean squat this winter without a positive pna. The pna is the signal that will tell the tale. If it locks in neutral to negative then we are gonna get flooded with pacific origin air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Well, the AO has been negative all summer, so we need about 6 months worth of positive now to balance that out. We'll have our typical antiblocking winter and like it. I believe there was some research done on this that stated "if the AO is negative in summer, with a similar Enso state as now, then the following winter will tend to be negative as well" I can't remember off-hand who dug up the information.... maybe GAwx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 27, 2015 Author Share Posted October 27, 2015 The good thing about a November torch is that you don't need to run the a/c. Above normal temps in November are comfortable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 I believe there was some research done on this that stated "if the AO is negative in summer, with a similar Enso state as now, then the following winter will tend to be negative as well" I can't remember off-hand who dug up the information.... maybe GAwx. Well for the mod+ nino's only 1 had a summer -AO and a winter +AO (1973). There were 2 other winters with +AO, 1992, which we toss due to Pinatubo and 1983. 1983 did have a +AO Dec/Jan but solidly negative in Feb. So 8 out of 11 mod+ nino's had -AO on avg over DJF, but 92 had Pinatubo and 83 did have a solid AO in Feb. So really only 73 was a complete clunker from a AO perspective and that was snowy anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Are we already crushing snow weenies dreams in October? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Well for the mod+ nino's only 1 had a summer -AO and a winter +AO (1973). There were 2 other winters with +AO, 1992, which we toss due to Pinatubo and 1983. 1983 did have a +AO Dec/Jan but solidly negative in Feb. So 8 out of 11 mod+ nino's had -AO on avg over DJF, but 92 had Pinatubo and 83 did have a solid AO in Feb. So really only 73 was a complete clunker from a AO perspective and that was snowy anyways. We toss 1983 due to El Chichon eruption...got to blame these +AO winters on something It was a much smaller eruption, but the particulates injected into the atmosphere were comparable to Pinatubo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 We toss 1983 due to El Chichon eruption...got to blame these +AO winters on something It was a much smaller eruption, but the particulates injected into the atmosphere were comparable to Pinatubo LOL, let's not toss 83...I would love another 83 type winter, it's snowed here and a lot more in the mountains so you can't really beat that. It is interesting to see a high correlation of -AO winters with mod+ nino's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 The November torch is officially real. GEFS, ECMWF EPS are in 100% agreement long range...usually when you see anomalies this positive, it's the real deal. Control runs are a torch. Spread at 204hrs on the GEFS...can't get any better than that for a monster SE ridge this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 The November torch is officially real. GEFS, ECMWF EPS are in 100% agreement long range...usually when you see anomalies this positive, it's the real deal. Control runs are a torch. Spread at 204hrs on the GEFS...can't get any better than that for a monster SE ridge this far out. This is a prelude to winter 2016-17. #Nina2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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