RubiksDestroyer Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Atleast it looks to be pushed into TX, with the big high over the Mid Atlantic! It's a bit of a weird situation. The storm forms just west of Yucatan, and then curves up around the gulf. It definetly looks like it should take a turn NW there, but the GFS takes it in along the LA/TX border and the ECMWF has it further south, and takes it east. In all honesty, it's really way too far out to analyze it like that. It's not even a guaruntee yet that it will form, though the consensus is impressive this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Trending colder... Sunday Night Clear, with a low around 33. Our local met is showing mid 30's Monday morning. NWS is at 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Uh oh. Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 2h2 hours ago Definitely need to watch Gulf next week. Plenty of model noise for a tropical system there. 12z GFS ENS day 10. 12z GFS 192 hrs looks similar... Untitled.png Euro shows it too. This threat is now credible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 Another week of dry weather but then the GEFS/EPS both agree on a wet week 2...we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 Another week of dry weather but then the GEFS/EPS both agree on a wet week 2...we shall see.We are almost dusty dry again here! It hasn't rained in about 8-10 days and looks like we add another 10 days to that , atleast! It seems to be feast or famine around here, and this is some of the most boring weather ever! The cold air is nice, but there is not even a cirrus cloud in the sky for days at a time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 We are almost dusty dry again here! It hasn't rained in about 8-10 days and looks like we add another 10 days to that , atleast! It seems to be feast or famine around here, and this is some of the most boring weather ever! The cold air is nice, but there is not even a cirrus cloud in the sky for days at a time! We should enjoy the sun while we can, this theoretically should be very wet from Nov-Feb for us. Although we will see...it would be funny if it was a cold/dry winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 We should enjoy the sun while we can, this theoretically should be very wet from Nov-Feb for us. Although we will see...it would be funny if it was a cold/dry winter. No...no it wouldn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 We should enjoy the sun while we can, this theoretically should be very wet from Nov-Feb for us. Although we will see...it would be funny if it was a cold/dry winter.That really would be hysterical ! Because just about everyone is saying the only guarantee this winter is the wet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 No...no it wouldn't. That really would be hysterical ! Because just about everyone is saying the only guarantee this winter is the wet! Everyone and analogs say it should be wet....we shall see. But it would be funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 That really would be hysterical ! Because just about everyone is saying the only guarantee this winter is the wet! Actually, the only guarantee is that the calendar will say it is winter. Everything else remains mere possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 Nice seeing the Euro spitting out gulf lows...should be active weather next week. Enjoy the sun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 There will be frost warnings for areas south and east of Raleigh tonight. After that the growing season should be over for all in the RAH zones: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THE RISK OF FROST AND/OR FREEZECONDITIONS TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING ESE ACROSS SC LATETODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WILL HAVE NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH... THUSEXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TO PERSIST. THE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGHPRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD... LEADING TO CALM AIR AND EXCELLENTRADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS GIVEN THE LACK OF CLOUDS. THERESIDENT AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODIFY HOWEVER... SO TEMPSSHOULD END UP NEAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN THEY WERE THISMORNING. A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL NC DID SEE TEMPS NEAR OR BELOWFREEZING THIS MORNING... THUS WE`VE BEEN ABLE TO DECLARE AN END TOTHE GROWING SEASON (AND THUS AN END TO FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS)ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH/WEST OF A LINE FROM LAURINBURG TO SANFORD TONASHVILLE TO SCOTLAND NECK. (SEE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT FORDETAILS.) EAST/SOUTH OF THIS LINE... SOME RURAL/OUTLYING SPOTS DIDSEE TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING... BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TOCEASE FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS JUST YET. LATEST GUIDANCE AS WELL ASADJUSTED PERSISTENCE POINTS TO LOWS OF 29-37. WILL EXPAND THEEXISTING FROST ADVISORY TO COVER THOSE AREAS WHERE THE FROST/FREEZEPROGRAM IS STILL ACTIVE. -GIH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 WxSouth has a very interesting post on Facebook about a possible east coast storm coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 WxSouth has a very interesting post on Facebook about a possible east coast storm coming up. Trick or Treat: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Haven't heard much continued chatter about the big storm next week!? Our rain is pushed back to Tuesday , atleast! Going to be 20+ days without rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 It'll rain middle next week, thankfully low dps and 4 nights of frost dried out top soil. Anyway looks like a 1035 to 1040 HP is going to be sliding by in the ne mid end next week. So should see a big cad setup. Need a surface lp out of the Gulf to set off any fireworks. I'll have to check models in a while to see if euro ens have any warning shots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 22, 2015 Author Share Posted October 22, 2015 It looks like they do everything bigger in Texas. They had a huge flooding event in the spring. Huge drought in the summer and it looks like another huge flooding event the next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Well fellas, looks like Fall is taking a break for a few days per most of the forecasts out there. Been an AWESOME few days and got a couple mornings of frost in the upstate, but not quite a killing freeze. If you haven't had a freeze yet, you may have quite a wait. If Accuweather is correct (I know it's Accuweather...) there will be no freeze between now and the first week of Dec for GSP. This might actually show a little support for the slow start to Winter everyone seems to be going with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Well fellas, looks like Fall is taking a break for a few days per most of the forecasts out there. Been an AWESOME few days and got a couple mornings of frost in the upstate, but not quite a killing freeze. If you haven't had a freeze yet, you may have quite a wait. If Accuweather is correct (I know it's Accuweather...) there will be no freeze between now and the first week of Dec for GSP. This might actually show a little support for the slow start to Winter everyone seems to be going with.Somebody has been looking at their 30 day forecast on accuweather! Shame shame! May not have a freeze next week, but some wedge and highs in the 50s, sounds awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Somebody has been looking at their 30 day forecast on accuweather! Shame shame! May not have a freeze next week, but some wedge and highs in the 50s, sounds awesome! It almost felt warm yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Well fellas, looks like Fall is taking a break for a few days per most of the forecasts out there. Been an AWESOME few days and got a couple mornings of frost in the upstate, but not quite a killing freeze. If you haven't had a freeze yet, you may have quite a wait. If Accuweather is correct (I know it's Accuweather...) there will be no freeze between now and the first week of Dec for GSP. This might actually show a little support for the slow start to Winter everyone seems to be going with. That's what I'm hoping for (...not too cold in November). I would like to see trougheness in the west (even -PNA, +NAO) and then a flip to cold around Thanksgiving or the first week of December. If we can get that I'll be excited about our upcoming winter. But that's just me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 It almost felt warm yesterday. Yeah, it's gonna hit about 82 around here today , + 10 above normal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Thought we'd see some mischief next week with that big HP sliding across the NE. Kudos to Robert for pointing this out. Hopefully the Brickster want get his trick or treat plans messed up. Allow me to introduce him to the potential so he can start to worry. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER TO MAKE A RETURN THIS WEEK WITH COLD AIR DAMMING(TUE AND WED)... THEN POTENTIALLY A HEAVY RAIN EVENT (WED-THU).SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE PRE-FRONTAL AND RATHER WARM. THERE MAY BE SOMESHOWERS IN THE NW PIEDMONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHTHROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AND THE WINDS WILLSHIFT TO THE NE. MOST MODELS SUGGEST THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL PREVAILOVER MOST OF OUR REGION... EVEN THE NE... BUT MOST ESPECIALLY THICKOVER THE THE WESTERN THIRD OF NC (PER UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT) WE WILLCONTINUE TO TREND THIS WAY MONDAY AND KEEP LOW CHANCE POP IN THEWESTERN PIEDMONT ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. THERE MAY BE AFEW BREAKS IN THE NE AS IT LOOKS NOW... BUT STILL NO BETTER THANMOSTLY CLOUDY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER...IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING (CAD) IS EXPECTEDTO AFFECT OUR REGION AS THE STRONG HIGH BUILDS STRONGLYSOUTHWESTWARD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH NC/SC AND GA. AS THEMAIN SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTWEDNESDAY... OVERRUNNING OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL SW FLOW ALOFT WILLCOMBINE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC TO LOWER ANDTHICKEN CLOUDS AND INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES.MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THEEVOLUTION OF THE WET SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO AFFECT OUR REGIONAND THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE UNITED STATES BYAROUND MIDWEEK INTO LATE WEEK.UNRESOLVED ISSUES STILL INCLUDE CURRENT CAT 5 HURRICANE PATRICIA INTHE PACIFIC AND THE EVENTUAL ENTRAINMENT OF THE REMNANTS OF THISSYSTEM INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH AFTER IT PUSHES NE ACROSS MEXICO INTHE COMING DAYS... AND THE TIMING/ STRENGTH OF THE POLAR JET ENERGYTHAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EVENTUALLY ALLOWINGTHE MERGING OF THE TWO INTO A MAJOR SURFACE STORM THAT WOULD TRACKNEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MID TO LATE WEEK. THE OPERATIONALGFS/EC BOTH INDICATE THIS MERGING OF THE SYSTEMS AND DEPICT A STRONGSTORM THAT LIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES... AND A WET TRAILINGFRONT THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND THROUGH ALL THEMID-ATLANTIC AND SE STATES LATE WED-THU.THE SYSTEM SHOULD PULL COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM THESUBTROPICAL PACIFIC... WARM AND MOIST GULF OF MEXICO... AND SOUTHATLANTIC GULF STREAM LIKELY RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN FOR A GOODPORTION OF NC MIDWEEK. SINCE THE FINER DETAILS ARE STILL TO BEDETERMINED... SUCH AS TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN... QPF... AND ANYSEVERE THREAT... WE WILL SIMPLY ADD SOME WORDING INTO THE HAZARDOUSWEATHER OUTLOOK CONCERNING THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WED-THU... ANDCONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE HIGHEST POP AND SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASCURRENTLY ADVERTISED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLESTWEDNESDAY DUE TO THE CAD... BUT WARM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ASTHE STORM LIFTS WEST OF OUR REGION... AND THE COLD FRONT PLOWS INFROM THE WEST.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Just hope the rain is out of here by Halloween night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Just hope the rain is out of here by Halloween night. Thanks. I needed to set my watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Thanks. I needed to set my watch.Sundial ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 A DAMMING event for Halloween. 18z GFS: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_195_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=195&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151023+18+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=462 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 A DAMMING event for Halloween. 18z GFS: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_195_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=195&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151023+18+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=462 I hope it's right! Nothing worse than a hot Halloween , except maybe a hot Christmas ! Nothing like a sweaty costume! Wedge looks good for Tue/Wed also! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Wow that is a lot of rain on the 12Z GFS over the next 10 days, especially into WNC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Overall the weather is boring (..around here), but we do have an interesting CAD setup the next few days. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 305 AM SUNDAY... TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... RAIN WITH A WELL DEFINED HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING (CAD) EVENT IS EXPECTED OVER OUR PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MAIN QUESTION MARKS CONTINUE TO BE WITH THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE THAT SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES... LIKELY TRACKING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TUE-WEDNESDAY... THE DEVELOPMENT/END OF THE CAD EVENT TUE-WED... AND THE RESULTANT TIMING OF RAIN/QFP/AND TEMPERATURES. WITH CAD EXPECTED TO BE FIRMLY IN PLACE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF THE 1035+ MB HIGH WEDGED INTO OUR REGION... A COASTAL/WARM FRONT WILL SURGE INLAND INTO NC/VA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE LIFTS UP ALONG OR WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. OVERRUNNING RAINS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD TUE-TUE NIGHT WITH QPF OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH (A BIT MORE ON AVERAGE WITH THIS MODEL SUITE THAN DEPICTED WITH THE 12Z PACKAGE). IN ADDITION... IT APPEARS THAT THE CAD WILL WAX ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND TEMPERATURES IN THE PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S DURING TUESDAY... BEFORE STEADYING OUT AND THEN POSSIBLY SLOWLY RISING INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY. WITH THE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORM LIFTING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS... THIS PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR A LONGER DURATION CAD EVEN WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (WHICH MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS... AND THE STORM LIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY... A WELL DEFINED COASTAL/WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE INLAND BETWEEN 12Z-18Z... THE LIFT NORTH INTO VA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... RESIDUAL CAD CONDITIONS (LOW OVERCAST/FOG/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN) WILL LIKELY LINGER WELL INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE NW PORTIONS OF OUR PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS ARE APT TO RISE QUICKLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COASTAL FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER MOSTLY 50S ARE EXPECTED FROM FAY TO GSB ON TUESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN... TEMPS MAY SOAR INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REALLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE THURSDAY... BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL THE MAIN FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD AID IN WARMING/DRYING ON THURSDAY AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON THE NORTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOWS 40-45 AND HIGHS IN THE 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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