FallsLake Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 RAH now talking about the possiblity of frost; with a freeze in the mountains: .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL MID WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND INASSOCIATION WITH THE DRY CONTINENTAL AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVERTHE OH VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC MID/LATE THIS WEEK FOLLOWED BY AN UPPERRIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND.ONE HAZARD THAT COULD POTENTIALLY ARISE FROM THIS PATTERN IS THEFIRST FROST OF THE SEASON FOR THE BLUE RIDGE AND POSSIBLY THEPIEDMONT. AT THE CURRENT TIME THIS IS A LOW CHANCE PROBABILITY OFLOWS IN THE MID 30S FOR THE RURAL PIEDMONT BY EITHER SATURDAY ORSUNDAY NIGHTS. THESE LOWS ARE PROJECTED BY VIEWING RECENT MODELTRENDS THAT INDICATE A CLIMATOLOGICALLY CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSUREBUILDING OVER THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND VIA WESTERN CANADA. ANYFREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINVALLEYS DURING THIS FIRST REAL SHOT OF COOL AUTUMN AIR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 RAH now talking about the possiblity of frost; with a freeze in the mountains: GFS next Monday morning...average first freeze is end of October so getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 GFS next Monday morning...average first freeze is end of October so getting there. This would be interesting. Very rare that I would get my first freeze here in the foothills at the same time the mountains get theirs. Hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Looks like next Monday night could be first frost for a lot of NC, average first frost in MBY is Oct 30, interestingly average first freeze is Nov 5th or so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Looks like next Monday night could be first frost for a lot of NC, average first frost in MBY is Oct 30, interestingly average first freeze is Nov 5th or so.... gfs_T2m_seus_28.png gem_T2m_seus_29.png GFS ensemble mean low was interesting for the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 After the rain chances tomorrow there looks to be a period of near perfect fall weather....anyone complaining about the weather for the next week needs their head examined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 RAH slowly increasing the threat for frost this weekend: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...THE ONLY REAL THING OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BETHE CHANCE OF A LIGHT FROST FOR SOME OF THE PIEDMONT BY EITHERSUNDAY OR MONDAY MORNING WHEN LOWS MAY TANK INTO THE MID 30S.PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASING IN THIS OCCURRENCE. HOWEVER... THIS ISNOT EXPECTED TO BE A "FIRST FREEZE" OR A KILLING FROST AT THIS TIME.YET... IT APPEARS THAT SOME OF OUR COLDEST AREAS MAY TOUCH 32 SUCHAS ROXBORO. MORE ON THIS IN LATER FORECASTS THIS WEEK.THIS IS ACTUALLY THE CLIMATOLOGICAL TIME FOR THE FIRST LIGHT FROSTSFOR OUR REGION.OTHERWISE... IT SHOULD WARM UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY ASHIGHS SHOULD REACH 70-75 WITH THE SW BREEZE. SATURDAY WILL BE BREEZYAND COOL WITH HIGH 60-65 BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT WILL BE "DOWNRIGHT CHILLY" SUNDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE 50S TO NEAR60 SE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 30S SUNDAYNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING UNDER THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. BYMONDAY... HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND BACK TO AROUND 60 WITH AMPLE SUNSHINEAND LIGHT WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 After the rain chances tomorrow there looks to be a period of near perfect fall weather....anyone complaining about the weather for the next week needs their head examined. This is why fall is usually the best season for nice weather. Comfortable temps and usually dry. The weather looks great coming up for the state fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 This is why fall is usually the best season for nice weather. Comfortable temps and usually dry. The weather looks great coming up for the state fair. We should enjoy the relatively dry next couple of weeks b/c come Nov we are going to get mega nino'd for several months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 We should enjoy the relatively dry next couple of weeks b/c come Nov we are going to get mega nino'd for several months.You promise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCummingWx93 Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 We should enjoy the relatively dry next couple of weeks b/c come Nov we are going to get mega nino'd for several months. I wonder what the odds are of us receiving at least 5" every month from November through March given a strong el nino. I'm guessing very high, especially in the mountains. I say bring it on. As long as we also get sporadic winter threats as well, then I'm all for the rain/stormy conditions. How about severe wx in north/central FL while at the same time a raging blizzard in north ga and the western Carolinas. Oh wait, I think I'm thinking of something that already happened and won't for probably another thousand years :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 NWS has a low "near" 33 for RDU...this is going to be great (I'm serious) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Our low for Monday morning has been steadily dropping as it gets closer. It went from 48 to 40 as of today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Latest Monday lows via NWS: Rest of SE: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 ^ Those colors are soooo misleading. Looks like it's going to be 0 until you zoom in and see 33. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 ^ Those colors are soooo misleading. Looks like it's going to be 0 until you zoom in and see 33. Meh.See the warm tongue of 40s right over my house!? Getting ready for lots of cold rains S of 85! Book it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 See the warm tongue of 40s right over my house!? Getting ready for lots of cold rains S of 85! Book it!! Historic cold rain episodes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Historic cold rain episodes!Exactly! 9 out of 10 events will be rain, but there will be gobs of storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 It's going to get boo chilly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Uh oh. Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 2h2 hours ago Definitely need to watch Gulf next week. Plenty of model noise for a tropical system there. 12z GFS ENS day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 ^ Those colors are soooo misleading. Looks like it's going to be 0 until you zoom in and see 33. Meh. I disagree...His color bar is very well made, 0 is very apparent...see these examples from January: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 ^ I'm just messing with ya man! It's nice to see some colder colors showing up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 12 GFS has a lot of dew point temps in the 20s: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=10&model_dd=14&model_init_hh=12&fhour=96¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Lets hope this potential freeze can work out and kill a bunch of bugs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Afternoon HWO from RAH... .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.A COLD AIR MASS WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMALWILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. LOWTEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S ON SUNDAY... MONDAY ANDTUESDAY MORNINGS. SCATTERED FROST IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY ANDTUESDAY MORNING OVER THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS OF THEPIEDMONT... AND POSSIBLY THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND NORTHERNCOASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION... A FEW SPOTS MAY FALL TO 31 OR 32DEGREES IN THE NORMALLY COLDER RURAL AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT.HOWEVER... A KILLING FREEZE THAT WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON ISNOT FORECAST AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 RAH's HWO sounding good for that first frost and freeze: HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC455 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-160900-PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-455 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.A LIGHT FREEZE ALONG WITH SCATTERED FROST APPEARS LIKELY FOR A GOODPORTION OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. LOWS AREEXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THETYPICALLY COLDER AREAS OF THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THAT FALL INTO THELOWER 30S MAY SEE WIDESPREAD FROST. THE SANDHILLS AND NORTHERNCOASTAL PLAIN SHOULD SEE THE CHANCE OF SCATTERED FROST SUNDAY NIGHTAND EARLY MONDAY AS LOWS DIP INTO THE MID 30S.LISTEN TO THE LATEST FORECASTS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND BE PREPARED FORTHE POTENTIAL FOR A FROST ADVISORY FOR MANY AREAS... WITH ANINCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THENORTHERN PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT.ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS CHILLYMONDAY NIGHT... WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE MID 30S SHOULD BRING ANOTHERTHREAT OF SCATTERED FROST... ESPECIALLY OVER THE PIEDMONT..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Trending colder... Sunday Night Clear, with a low around 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Trending colder... Sunday Night Clear, with a low around 33. Same here. Patchy frost after 3am. Otherwise, clear, with a low around 31. I'd expect a bit more than patchy frost with a 31 degree low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 A lot of models have been showing a gulf storm around hour 200... not sure if it's real or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 A lot of models have been showing a gulf storm around hour 200... not sure if it's real or not. Atleast it looks to be pushed into TX, with the big high over the Mid Atlantic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 12z GFS 192 hrs looks similar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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