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Fall 2015 Pattern Discussion


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  On 10/7/2015 at 11:51 PM, mackerel_sky said:

How much for GSP ?

.43" or .34"   You can change the station location by changing the reporting code after ?site=

 

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kgsp&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on

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  On 10/8/2015 at 12:37 PM, packbacker said:

Euro has max QPF in southern NC into SC...

I wonder which model will be right.....Only half joking because, somebody had stated that the GFS actually did better on the precipitation banding during the last event; whereas the euro had the better handle on the larger picture.  

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  On 10/8/2015 at 2:21 PM, FallsLake said:

I wonder which model will be right.....Only half joking because, somebody had stated that the GFS actually did better on the precipitation banding during the last event; whereas the euro had the better handle on the larger picture.  

 

It did?  This was the Friday run of the 12z GFS, it has the max QPF down the NC/SC line with CLT getting 20+".  Yes, the Euro bounced around but it was consistently showing it in central SC, now maybe it didn't show CAE to Charleston as the hot spot but it wasn't showing CLT.

post-2311-0-38907000-1444317364_thumb.pn

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  On 10/8/2015 at 3:33 PM, FallsLake said:

It will. I was basing my opinion on what Isohume said after the event.

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  On 10/8/2015 at 4:08 PM, FallsLake said:

Yeah I'm not ready to jump with one single model right now. But I would say the euro did get a few points. The way things stand, we'll be favoring the euro more this winter for wintery events.

Yeah, I agree my previous comments not withstanding. Not smart to hug just one.

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  On 10/8/2015 at 3:15 PM, packbacker said:

It did? This was the Friday run of the 12z GFS, it has the max QPF down the NC/SC line with CLT getting 20+". Yes, the Euro bounced around but it was consistently showing it in central SC, now maybe it didn't show CAE to Charleston as the hot spot but it wasn't showing CLT.

You should look up Isohume comments in the banter thread.
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  On 10/8/2015 at 8:16 PM, packbacker said:

12z EPS very wet for SC, 0.8"+ across almost all of state with 1.2" plus down by the coast (CHS to ILM).  1" to CAE.

 

I believe the Euro was underdone on the flood event with totals overall.  Not a good sign by any means with the 12z GFS ensemble mean creeping up to 1/2 - 3/4 for us.

 

Our local mets here in Columbia have been mainly downplaying the event.  Most were saying a passing/scattered shower.  Nothing heavy.  Seems the actual recovery efforts know there's a chance at something heavier at least.  Richalnd Sheriff alluded to it a bit ago.

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