IsentropicLift Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 The GFS has been honking Western Caribbean development in 7-10 days that more or less comes North, Northeast over the ensuing week. Obviously clown range, but the 12z GFS does show landfall in Southern Florida on 10/19 and then a secondary landfall near Wilmington, NC on 10/21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 The GFS has been honking Western Caribbean development in 7-10 days that more or less comes North, Northeast over the ensuing week. Obviously clown range, but the 12z GFS does show landfall in Southern Florida on 10/19 and then a secondary landfall near Wilmington, NC on 10/21. What does the Euro show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 MOre What does the Euro show? More or less the same thing in the 7-10 day period. The GFS comes North post day 10 and obviously the Euro doesn't go that far out. FWIW here were the 06z GEFS members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 If the Euro is hinting at it, then it might be for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 If the Euro is hinting at it, then it might be for real. Just because the Euro scored a coup with Joaquin doesn't mean that its going to be right about everything moving forward. The GFS OP being well supported by its ensembles is a pretty good start IMO. We have about a week before something is even forecasted to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Just because the Euro scored a coup with Joaquin doesn't mean that its going to be right about everything moving forward. The GFS OP being well supported by its ensembles is a pretty good start IMO. We have about a week before something is even forecasted to develop. Never try and teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time, and it annoys the pig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 I love this time of year: SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHSON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. VERYDRY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS ANDMORNING MINS WILL BE MAINLY 50 TO 55...WITH UPPER 40S A POSSIBILITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Flirting with first frost in the long range on GFS if its 2-5 degrees colder than it is showing it will be first frost for many, the CMC also has some cold building but it doesn't go out as far but has a look similar to GFS so I imagine it would also show the cold if it went out further... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 What happened to out end of period coastal storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 What happened to out end of period coastal storm? LOL...what it's gone? The Euro op is showing another wet weekend...please be wrong! Got another digging vort, now all we need is it to close off. The GFS isn't as diggy and the rain is focused MA/NE. Come on GFS be right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Euro says another cutoff for this weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 What happened to out end of period coastal storm? The GFS has been hinting at a storm way out in fantasy land for ~ October 21. 6z GFS still shows it; which is tropical in origin. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_324_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=324&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151007+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Euro says another cutoff for this weekend... At least it isn't going to hang around for 2 weeks... RAH- .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY... MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARDS A CONSENSUS CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF A SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BENEFIT FROM A WARM START AND THE WARM AIR ADVECTION TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST. WILL HAVE SLIGHT POPS NORTHWEST BY MID DAY FRIDAY INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE CUTS OFF OVER THE CAROLINAS. WILL HOLD OFF THUNDER WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY DUE TO UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING FRIDAY NIGHT. LATER FORECASTS CAN EVALUATE DEEPER CONVECTION POTENTIAL SATURDAY ONCE THE CUTOFF POSITION IS MORE CLEAR. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER POST FROPA...AND COULD END UP EVEN COOLER THAN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT (PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY) WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD NEARER THE COAST WHERE THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL OR AT LEAST SLOW DRAMATICALLY PARALLEL TO THE SHORELINE. MEANWHILE SHOWERS SHOULD BE SPOTTIER NORTH OF THE CUTOFF OVER CENTRAL NC. HEAVY CLOUDINESS WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH HIGHS SUNDAY MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AFTER A MORNING LOW IN THE MID 50S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON MONDAY AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARDS NORMAL...MOSTLY LOW AND MID 70S...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH OUR NEXT FRONT (WHICH LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT) MOVES THROUGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Ugh: Need it to rain on company time for once instead of the weekend: Screws up Friday football as well as the only day we have to get outside for yard work and R&R. Of course it's been raining on both for the past 11 days till yesterday LOL. Love getting outside on the weekends this time of year. Gotta think with the cutoff its gonna be raw and wet this weekend. Hope these cutoffs show up in D,J,F to my south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Sorry heading to Columbia right now. Is it going to rain in sc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 At least it's just for two days, but hate having rain on the weekend after finally getting nice weather this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 12z NAM has a very wet Saturday from RDU north-eastward. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_precip_p24.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151007+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Sorry heading to Columbia right now. Is it going to rain in sc? Not sure yet, but the UK and GFS dig it fairly far south, into FL. We will have to wait a few more runs. I like that trend though, these h5 vorts digging far south. Maybe a 73 blizzard redux for GA/SC coming up this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 12z NAM has a very wet Saturday from RDU north-eastward. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_precip_p24.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151007+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Hope next weekend is better for the start of the fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Not sure yet, but the UK and GFS dig it fairly far south, into FL. We will have to wait a few more runs. I like that trend though, these h5 vorts digging far south. Maybe a 73 blizzard redux for GA/SC coming up this winter. flurries for Raleigh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 flurries for Raleigh? Not that light, solid 1-2" while CAE is 12"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Not sure yet, but the UK and GFS dig it fairly far south, into FL. We will have to wait a few more runs. I like that trend though, these h5 vorts digging far south. Maybe a 73 blizzard redux for GA/SC coming up this winter. Even though the GFS/ECMWF closes off another ULL off the Carolina coast this weekend, the flow is much more progressive than last week. Even though Joaquin passed well offshore, it strengthened the ridging to its North which helped locked everything in place. The flow is also more progressive with a positively tilted trough over the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Not liking the idea of the 00z Euro showing a wide area of around 0.5 - 1 inch in spots of rain for most of SC this weekend into Monday. The 12z GFS trended to it with precip amounts now. The 12z GEFS mean has 0.25 - 0.50. While these amounts seem low, in our current situation they are heavy. The trend has been wetter each run so far. Edit: just read the CAE forecast discussion and they mention 0.25 - 0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Not liking the idea of the 00z Euro showing a wide area of around 0.5 - 1 inch in spots of rain for most of SC this weekend into Monday. The 12z GFS trended to it with precip amounts now. The 12z GEFS mean has 0.25 - 0.50. While these amounts seem low, in our current situation they are heavy. The trend has been wetter each run so far. Edit: just read the CAE forecast discussion and they mention 0.25 - 0.5 Even more worrying is the Euro showing 0.5 to 1.0 like you said. Euro has been on a roll lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 The 12z ECMWF keeps most of the rains offshore this weekend. The bad thing is that a typical strong Nino means a very strong southern jet ramping up during Fall, and that would lead to a very stormy pattern for the entire East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Even more worrying is the Euro showing 0.5 to 1.0 like you said. Euro has been on a roll lately. Yes, thankfully the Euro backed off a bit on the 12z. I'll have to check the ensembles out later. The Euro was also too light on precipitation amounts on the flood event as we got closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 RAH doesn't mention amounts, but the point forecast calls for less than .10"/less than .10" Fri night and Sat. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:PACIFIC NW ENERGY MOVING ASHORE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHERE IT IS THEN FORECAST TO CUT-OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST US SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. WHAT ONCE LOOK LIKE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING-NIGHT...IS NOW APPEARING TO BE A MORE EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A SECONDARY AREA OF ANA-FRONTAL PRECIP DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFYING WAVE MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS.RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET WITH INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH MODEL SPREAD NARROWING...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LOW-LIKELY ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT FROM NW TO SE. TEMPERATURES...HIGHS FRIDAY UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY OWING TO CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...FURTHER AIDED BY RAIN COOLED AIR. HIGHS SATURDAY ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER...RANGING FROM LOWER 60S TO MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. SUNDAY ONWARD: WAVY FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE...COULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY WITH CLOUDINESS LINGERING OVER EASTERN NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 The 12z ECMWF keeps most of the rains offshore this weekend. The bad thing is that a typical strong Nino means a very strong southern jet ramping up during Fall, and that would lead to a very stormy pattern for the entire East. The Op was much weaker with the digging vort, and like you said the pattern is progressive but there is a ridge building in that does hold it up but it's offshore like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Week after next looking awful fall like...highs near 55-60 lows in the low to mid 40's...average first frost here is the last week of Oct... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 7, 2015 Author Share Posted October 7, 2015 Week after next looking awful fall like...highs near 55-60 lows in the low to mid 40's...average first frost here is the last week of Oct... that almost sounds winter like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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