packbacker Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 New GEFS QPF through Friday...this should pep up Brick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 The only thing that could make this 10 day stretch of gloomy weather better is temps in the 30s! I guess El Niño flip to wet happened a little earlier than I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 The only thing that could make this 10 day stretch of gloomy weather better is temps in the 30s! I guess El Niño flip to wet happened a little earlier than I expected. Hope it doesn't mean the winter is going to be dry. If this really is the result of El Nino, I think it started a lot sooner than people thought it would. I think a lot of people were saying October should be dry and then the flip starts in November or December with the increased precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 What is the 12z Euro up to for the end of this week....Brick better start building a ark... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Day 4-5 tropical storm (close low end cane) off the SE coast on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Well this was a fun run of the Euro, TS (low end cane) landfall over VA/NC border, 10"+ of rain across central NC towards the coast through Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Will the fun ever end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 When models spit out stuff like this you know it has a great chance of verifying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 I hope it is wrong like it usually is with snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Wow, both models are pretty skimpy on QPF in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 The Euro has been horrendously bombing just about every puff of cloud in the western hemisphere this year. Color me skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 When models spit out stuff like this you know it has a great chance of verifying... Floyd jr right there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 When models spit out stuff like this you know it has a great chance of verifying... Looks like some of the modeled snow maps from last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Lol at the Euro. 15" of rain. That's funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 The Euro has been horrendously bombing just about every puff of cloud in the western hemisphere this year. Color me skeptical. Definitely skeptical but the Euro hasn't blown up any Atlantic tropical disturbances like the GFS/CMC has. Though the Euro shows a cut off low capurting the TS/TD and then strengthens it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 US National Weather Service Raleigh NC 5 mins · This afternoon's visible satellite imagery reveals several features of interest. An offshore low continues to impact the weather across our area, forcing today's scattered showers. Though this low is expected to weaken over the next day or so, another low pressure system moving towards us from the southwest coupled with a cold front approaching from the northwest (currently off the screen) will interact with the moisture from Invest 99L to bring unsettled weather through at least Wednesday, potentially followed by a return to a cold air damming regime. Out in the Atlantic, Tropical Depression Eleven is slowly strengthening and could become Tropical Storm Joaquin later today. There is some uncertainty regarding its future intensity and track, but we will keep you updated as our confidence increases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Interesting take on the possible setup... Wxrisk.com 6 mins · IS THE " BIG NOREASTER" IDEA FOR THIS WEEKEND A VALID THREAT ? https://www.wxrisk.com/?p=4924 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Interesting take on the possible setup... Wxrisk.com 6 mins · IS THE " BIG NOREASTER" IDEA FOR THIS WEEKEND A VALID THREAT ? https://www.wxrisk.com/?p=4924 Oh lawd! Here comes the big October storm that ruins winter, a la 1991, 2015! Winter cancel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Oh lawd! Here comes the big October storm that ruins winter, a la 1991, 2015! Winter cancel! Dont worry. More DT hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Looking at the NWS forecast and models, it looks like most of us will not see sun until Sunday. Even then, the 6z GFS is now showing some shower activity over portions of NC. I think by early next week many will be on Brick's bandwagon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 SOO CLOSE!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I hope NC gets the tropical storm and gets all the action! I need subsidence for a change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I hope NC gets the tropical storm and gets all the action! I need subsidence for a change! Per the 12z NAM RDU would be slammed with precip. Simulated radar (move between Previous and Next): http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_072_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=sim_radar&fhr=072&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150929+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Edit: 84 hour totals(over 7" near RDU???) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_precip_p60.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=precip_p60&fhr=084&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150929+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 12z GFS similar to NAM. Here is 60 hour totals at hour 102 (and there was a lot that fell before this total): http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_102_precip_p60.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=precip_p60&fhr=102&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150929+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 When models spit out stuff like this you know it has a great chance of verifying... Wow, that would be like Floyd all over again. Danny soaked us and then Floyd took us over the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 12z GFS similar to NAM. Here is 60 hour totals at hour 102 (and there was a lot that fell before this total): http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_102_precip_p60.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=precip_p60&fhr=102&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150929+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 If we wake up to similar output tomorrow, I would expect to see some changes in some local forecasts and AFDs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 wow You immediately look towards central and eastern NC, but that's still a lot of rain over your location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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