Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Days are getting shorter, nights getting cooler, and football season ! Love this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floridagal Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Nights are somewhat cooler here thankfully, but it will be late October before I start getting excited Not sure how much more heat/humidity I can take. Longing for a cool, crisp, DRY day! Soon...soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 The best season in NC for nice weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 The GFS from a couple of days back was showing a potential cool down in the 7-8 day range. Now (of course) it's showing a warm pattern. Important thing is the north is cooling down. We'll just have to be patent until it can work itself southward. Day 7: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=09&model_dd=01&model_init_hh=06&fhour=180¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 1, 2015 Author Share Posted September 1, 2015 The GFS from a couple of days back was showing a potential cool down in the 7-8 day range. Now (of course) it's showing a warm pattern. Important thing is the north is cooling down. We'll just have to be patent until it can work itself southward. Day 7: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=09&model_dd=01&model_init_hh=06&fhour=180¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false we just have to be patient. It will get here eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 we just have to be patient. It will get here eventually. Probably by the end of October..... My prediction for this fall is that the leaves will come of the trees and it won't rain. The real question is when will we see our first under 80° day. My guess is the first week of October. Then we will have our typical hot weather come back for a couple weeks then it will be mercifully over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 1, 2015 Author Share Posted September 1, 2015 Probably by the end of October..... My prediction for this fall is that the leaves will come of the trees and it won't rain. The real question is when will we see our first under 80° day. My guess is the first week of October. Then we will have our typical hot weather come back for a couple weeks then it will be mercifully over. You mean first under 80 day with full sunshine. I'm sure we'll have a cloudy day between now and the end of the month where it doesnt get out of the 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 You mean first under 80 day with full sunshine. I'm sure we'll have a cloudy day between now and the end of the month where it doesnt get out of the 70s.We will have our first under 80 degree high on September 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 I spy the 540 line in Minnesota on 9/14 (18z GFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 Days are getting shorter, nights getting cooler, and football season ! Love this time of the year.Temps getting higher , rainfall getting more scarce, I love fall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 2, 2015 Author Share Posted September 2, 2015 Temps getting higher , rainfall getting more scarce, I love fall! lol it kinda seems that way right ? I think things are going in reverse this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 Not bad for early September: .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINKSOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ANOTHERWEAK IMPULSE IN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOWMOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED TOSCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.OVERALL DEEP FLOW CONTINUES TO BE QUITE WEAK. GIVEN THIS AND RATHERWEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SEVERETHREAT... WITH THE ONLY LIMITED THREAT FROM LOCALIZED.... MAINLYURBAN... FLOODING AS PW/S ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1.75" OR SO ONFRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TOREACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILLBUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTOSATURDAY. HOWEVER... WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIPCHANCES AS A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THEAREA. THUS... EXPECT LOW POPS (SLIGHT CHANCE) IN THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (CHANCE) IN THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN NORTHEAST TOEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW... WE WILL LIKELY START THE DAY WITH A GOODBIT OF CLOUD COVER/LOW STRATUS. GIVEN THE COOLER AIR MASS FROM THENORTH AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER... WILL GO WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY INTHE LOWER TO MID 80S (AND THIS MAY STILL BE TOO WARM IN SPOTS). LOWSSATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND IN THE MIDTO UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TOLINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WHILE SLOWLYSINKING SOUTHWESTWARD... YET STILL EXTENDING INTO OUR AREA... ALONGWITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST TO EASTERN PORTIONSOF OUR AREA. THIS WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN THE BEST CHANCES FORPRECIP TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA... BUT WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TOSCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY (MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE) ANDGENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC.HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S... COOLEST ON SUNDAY... WITH LOWS INTHE 60S.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 Today and Tommorrow will be the last shot at hitting 90 degrees at GSO this calendar year: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 Today and Tommorrow will be the last shot at hitting 90 degrees at GSO this calendar year: Does anyone else keep looking for the "LIKE" button for these great posts????? Bring on some lower humidity and 50's at night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 Temps getting higher , rainfall getting more scarce, I love fall! Yeah, gotta love it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 Temps getting higher , rainfall getting more scarce, I love fall! Seeing some you guys misery, makes me glad to live high in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 6, 2015 Share Posted September 6, 2015 I'm liking this part of today's AFD AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE CHANCES OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY... LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 6, 2015 Share Posted September 6, 2015 I'm liking this part of today's AFD AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY... IT APPEARS THAT THE CHANCES OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY... LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. Don't get your hopes up, Solak. By Tuesday, chances will be 20% for just Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 6, 2015 Share Posted September 6, 2015 Don't get your hopes up, Solak. By Tuesday, chances will be 20% for just Friday. We had a little shower yesterday and might have one come through in a little while. But seems most folks were on the dry end of the 50% chance of rain this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 6, 2015 Share Posted September 6, 2015 Signs of a pretty stout cold front keep showing up on the models around day 8 or so. I think the odds favor such an event at this time but it could be a mirage as well. Time will tell but it sure is beautiful to see lows in the 40s for lots of us showing up on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 7, 2015 Share Posted September 7, 2015 Thats about right for first 40's, here at PGV the mean date is Sept 23rd....earliest low below 50 was Aug 15th and latest is Oct 20th. Earliest in the last 20 years is Sept 17th twice....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Looking at the 6z GFS; it doesn't look hot across much of the south in the extended. Lots of 80s and even some 70s (possible upper 60s a couple of days) for highs. Problem, it looks like the fronts will not sweep totally out of the SE. This will allow more chances of rain (good), but the dew points never get to far below 60 (for most areas). Rain is good but I'm looking for that first 70 degree, deep blue sky, low dew point day. Don't really see it right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Looking at the 6z GFS; it doesn't look hot across much of the south in the extended. Lots of 80s and even some 70s (possible upper 60s a couple of days) for highs. Problem, it looks like the fronts will not sweep totally out of the SE. This will allow more chances of rain (good), but the dew points never get to far below 60 (for most areas). Rain is good but I'm looking for that first 70 degree, deep blue sky, low dew point day. Don't really see it right now... I would much rather have the rain. Been so dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 In the medium range, the12z GFS does have dew points dropping into the 40s for western portions of the SE; including most of GA. Easter parts of the SE will battle on low the dew points can drop. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=09&model_dd=08&model_init_hh=12&fhour=150¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 6z GFS has dew points in the 40s for many across the SE at day 5: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=09&model_dd=09&model_init_hh=06&fhour=120¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Just maybe we can open up some windows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 HEADS UP Sat afternoon: SATURDAY: THE LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE NOW IN CLOSEAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERNTHROUGH 12Z SUN. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL UNDERGOFURTHER AMPLIFICATION ON SAT AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH/TNVALLEY...WHERE A CLOSED LOW WILL FORM AND GRADUALLY TRANSLATEEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SAT NIGHT. ANATTENDANT SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN DIRECTLY OVER THECAROLINAS DURING THE DAY SAT. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY TRACK NORTHWARDINTO VIRGINIA SAT AFT/EVE BEFORE ACCELERATING INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC SAT NIGHT. GIVEN PRONOUNCED SYNOPTIC FORCING AND SEASONABLEMOISTURE/INSTABILITY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ISEXPECTED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS CERTAINLY TRENDED IN ADIRECTION SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER SAT AFT/EVE. ALTHOUGH PRECISEDETAILS (I.E. CONVECTIVE MODE/THREAT) REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THISRANGE...THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL NO DOUBT BE SUPPORTIVEOF SUPERCELLS. OMINOUSLY (PERHAPS)...THE #1 CIPS ANALOG TO THE 96-HRFORECAST (VALID 00Z SUNDAY) FROM THE 00Z 09/09 GFS IS AUG 13 2004.ON THAT DATE...A TORNADO OUTBREAK (INCLUDING 1 SIG TOR) AFFECTEDPORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 HEADS UP Sat afternoon: SATURDAY: THE LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE NOW IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH 12Z SUN. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL UNDERGO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION ON SAT AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY...WHERE A CLOSED LOW WILL FORM AND GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SAT NIGHT. AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY SAT. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY TRACK NORTHWARD INTO VIRGINIA SAT AFT/EVE BEFORE ACCELERATING INTO THE NORTHERN MID- ATLANTIC SAT NIGHT. GIVEN PRONOUNCED SYNOPTIC FORCING AND SEASONABLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS CERTAINLY TRENDED IN A DIRECTION SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER SAT AFT/EVE. ALTHOUGH PRECISE DETAILS (I.E. CONVECTIVE MODE/THREAT) REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THIS RANGE...THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL NO DOUBT BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. OMINOUSLY (PERHAPS)...THE #1 CIPS ANALOG TO THE 96-HR FORECAST (VALID 00Z SUNDAY) FROM THE 00Z 09/09 GFS IS AUG 13 2004. ON THAT DATE...A TORNADO OUTBREAK (INCLUDING 1 SIG TOR) AFFECTED PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC. Thanks for the heads up. Sounds like something to keep an eye on for sure. Kids have soccer Saturday, so don't want to get caught off-guard with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 The timing will change by then, front will come through in the morning or slow down and come through at night!? Or maybe that's just the upstate rain hole curse!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 I can't find anything from RAH about a tornado outbreak on Aug 13, 2004. I did find something about severe weather on Aug 12 that year which produced one tornado in NC, and about hurricane Charley from Aug 9-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 I can't find anything from RAH about a tornado outbreak on Aug 13, 2004. I did find something about severe weather on Aug 12 that year which produced one tornado in NC, and about hurricane Charley from Aug 9-15. Here's the event write-up for Aug 12th (should be the same event): http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20040812/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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