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September 2015 Observation Thread


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If you didn't know any better you would think that the low off Florida was at least borderline tropical in nature.......radar loop is impressive and most buoys out there are just below TD conditions.....very nice flare up this AM

 

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=clx&loop=yes

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-ft.html

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PRIMARY CHANGES THIS MORNING WERE TO TRIM BACK POPS AND QPF MAINLY
IN THE NRN PIEDMONT FOR THE REST OF TODAY... BASED ON BOTH SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT RAP/HRRR/3 KM NAMRR OUTPUT. PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IN THE LAST FEW HOURS HAS BECOME EVEN
MORE SPARSE AND LIGHT AS IT HAS HEADED WNW INTO THE RELATIVELY DRIER
PIEDMONT COUNTIES. THE EXCEPTION HAS BEEN THE MORE CONTINUOUS BATCH
OF RAIN TRAVERSING THE SANDHILLS AND SRN PIEDMONT... WHICH IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY LOCALLY HIGHER PW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED
WITH A MID LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING WNW AROUND THE MEAN UPPER
LOW OVER THE FL PANHANDLE. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING WNW INTO
THE AFTERNOON... TAKING WITH IT THE RAIN AREA ACROSS THE SW CWA AND
THEN OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS NOTED
ABOVE ALL SUPPORT THIS TREND... WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PATCHY LIGHT
PRECIP AROUND THE TRIANGLE AND POINTS NORTH AND NW... AND BETTER
COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SW. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS
SHOULD BE STRATIFORM BUT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
HERE AND DYNAMIC CONTRIBUTION... A LIGHTNING FLASH OR TWO MAY OCCUR
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THIS PARTICULAR PRECIP AREA. AFTER A
BRIEF POST-WAVE LULL... LIGHT RAIN SHOULD FILL BACK IN ALONG/EAST OF
I95 LATER TODAY ALONG A WEAK INLAND-PUSHING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE
NOW LOCATED NEAR AND JUST OFF THE NC COAST. BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW
FAR INLAND THIS FEATURE WILL GET IS NOT HIGH... SINCE THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE COASTAL FRONT WILL REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE WITH
PRECIP FOCUSED ALONG IT... SOMEWHAT REDUCING THE INLAND PENETRATION
OF RAINFALL. WILL RE-EVALUATE THIS MORE WITH 12Z MODEL RUNS LATER
TODAY.
EITHER WAY... RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE AT MOST AN ADDITIONAL
THIRD TO HALF INCH IN THE FAR SW... AND JUST A TENTH OR LESS
ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUNSET. TEMPS ARE TRICKY WITH MINIMAL RISE IN THE
NW CWA IN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO... BUT WITH AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF
GOOD SUNSHINE IN THE NORTH HALF... AS WELL AS IN THE CENTRAL/SRN
COASTAL PLAIN AS A NARROW BAND OF PARTIAL CLEARING ROTATES IN... WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPS PEAK IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80... WARMEST SE AND
NEAR THE VA BORDER... WITH MOSTLY LOWER 70S OVER THE TRIAD AND FAR
WRN PIEDMONT. -GIH

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